VALUE MANAGER
56.4Pullback inside uptrend — value entry window.
Mean-revert gap -7.9%.
BIST · 2026-08-28
ALKLC — NO_ACTION
Altınkılıç Gıda ve Süt · operator [email protected]
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Outcome review · Learning Engine · Signal history
Scores
- prediction: 53.9
- confidence: 34.3
- opportunity: 37.6
- timing: 66.5
- portfolio fit: 5.0
Bull Case
ALKLC · (Altınkılıç Gıda ve Süt) · Consumer Staples · Food & Dairy: pullback-in-uptrend (5d -1.6% inside 20d 6.3%). Mean-revert gap -7.9% offers a staged entry if risk score cools. Lead model Ensemble (6 models) assigns p(up)=0.54; portfolio fit 5.0 with position not held.
Bear Case
ALKLC: extreme vol (58.1%) and max drawdown 31.2% compress edge — false breakouts likely. Risk stack vol=100.0 · dd=100.0 · liq=0.0 · sector=100.0 → total 85.0.
Ensemble & Uncertainty
- consensus p(up): 0.539
- agreement: 90.4
- dispersion: 0.024
- calibrated conf: 0.343
- risk of wrong: 0.657
- data quality: 82.9
- 1d p10–p90: -0.002 → -0.002
- 5d p10–p90: — → —
source: QBMosaic weighted ensembleproxy / heuristicas of 2026-08-28 14:55 UTC
Same-as-of model votes weighted by learned StockModel weights, then gated by calibration, agreement and data quality.
Point-in-Time Intraday Timing
- availability: ELIGIBLE
- readiness: 84.8
- session: 2026-08-28
- activity: HIGH
- RVOL-T: 4.01
- deviation: 1.36pp
- Observed 5-minute quality 100.0 with 44 complete sessions
- high activity (90.3) and RVOL-T 4.01
- Path deviation 1.36pp versus the 20-session median
source: Yahoo Finance observed 5-minute barsproxy / heuristicas of 2026-08-28 14:55 UTC
Quality-, freshness- and sample-gated timing readiness. Volume, activity and deviation are non-directional and never change BUY into AVOID.
DQS contribution
daily 34.9 · models 25.0 · intraday 20.0 · settled 3.0
Why Not?
- Calibrated confidence is below 45%
Catalysts
Yahoo path features (n=90) · asOf=2026-08-27 · model=Ensemble (6 models) · p(up)=0.54 · regime=pullback-in-uptrend · vol=extreme · fit=5.0 · not held · sector=Consumer Staples · evidence=no verified research evidence
Invalidation
Invalidate if total market risk > 95.0, drawdown extends beyond 36.2%, or 5d return worsens by >3pp without 20d repair. Liquidity score > 25.0 also voids size-up.
Key Assumptions
Rule thesis over Yahoo closes (sample 90). Mean-revert proxy -7.9%. Intraday timing ELIGIBLE at 84.8; activity is non-directional. Verified evidence count 0; unverified imports are excluded. No live LLM; committee text is numeric templates. XK030/sharia screens are membership-only — not a fundamental audit.
Exit Conditions
Wait for clearer 5d/20d alignment. No new risk until confidence and fit both improve.
Paper Position
Replay Closure
snapshot 2026-08-27 · outcomes 3/2 · journals 0
- 1d PROTECTED · 1.48%
- 3d PROTECTED · 1.43%
- 5d MISSED_MOVE · 4.33%
Decision Evidence Pack
No verified point-in-time research evidence was attached to this decision.
AI Committee
GROWTH MANAGER
45.2Growth case needs stronger directional odds.
p(up)=0.54 from Ensemble (6 models) · Food & Dairy.
MACRO MANAGER
42.7Intermediate trend still constructive.
20d regime 6.3% with vol 58.1% · Consumer Staples. No verified financial/news/disclosure evidence.
TECHNICAL MANAGER
50.6Tape soft (pullback-in-uptrend) — wait for reclaim.
5d -1.6% / 20d 6.3%; mean-revert -7.9%. Intraday timing ELIGIBLE 84.8; high activity (90.3) and RVOL-T 4.01.
RISK MANAGER
10.0Risk budget strained — size down or avoid.
Total 85.0 · volR 100.0 · ddR 100.0 · ann.vol 58.1%.
SENTIMENT MANAGER
34.3Conviction thin — crowd confirmation missing.
Confidence 34.3; decision NO_ACTION. No verified financial/news/disclosure evidence.
CIO MANAGER
48.9Aggregate call: NO_ACTION.
Opp 37.6 · fit 5.0 · risk 85.0 · not held.