Scenarios
Scenario & Market Activity
Yahoo günlük vol/momentum heuristikleri ve USD book-level stress. Kurum veya işlem tarafı verisi değildir.
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Hangi soruya cevap veriyor?
Bu karar hangi senaryoda geçersiz olur?
Kararda nasıl kullanılmalı?
Invalidation koşulunu senaryolarla test edin; sinyal üretmez.
Hangi motora veri sağlar?
Risk Engine · Decision Card invalidation
Proxy disclosure
Bu sayfadaki flow verisi BofA/MLB veya başka bir BIST üyesinin gerçekleşen işlemleri değildir. Yahoo günlük hacim ve momentumundan türetilen market-activity proxy'sidir.
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Research Provider Status
kap-official
BLOCKED · fetched 0 · imported 0
KAP_SYNC_ENABLED is not true; official licensed sync is opt-in
yahoo-fundamentals
SUCCESS · fetched 30 · imported 30
tcmb-evds
BLOCKED · fetched 0 · imported 0
TCMB_EVDS_API_KEY is not configured
bist-verda-index
BLOCKED · fetched 0 · imported 0
Licensed BIST VERDA credentials/file type are not configured
Yahoo fundamentals stay unverified. TCMB EVDS observations are verified with an API key. KAP and BIST VERDA require licensed credentials. Public-site scraping is not used.
Your Book Under Scenarios (USD)
Portföy pozisyonu veya impact yok. Portfolio + generate impacts.
Scenario expected effects are interpretable momentum/volatility stress heuristics; not a macro world model or Monte Carlo simulation.
Scenario Impact Proxy
Scenario sensitivity maps daily momentum, realized volatility and drawdown to seeded scenario families.
Yahoo Market Activity Proxy
Synthetic buy/sell channels derived from volume × price × momentum. Not BIST member, custody, order-flow or institutional position data.
Inflation Reacceleration
Sticky inflation forces tighter financial conditions.
- SAP: p=0.88 · eff=0.061
- MSFT: p=0.70 · eff=0.022
- NVDA: p=0.52 · eff=-0.028
- SIE: p=0.42 · eff=-0.029
Risk-Off Shock
Sudden volatility spike with broad risk-asset drawdown.
- SIE: p=0.60 · eff=-0.128
- AAPL: p=0.63 · eff=-0.136
- XU100: p=0.63 · eff=-0.157
- BIMAS: p=0.67 · eff=-0.176
Soft Landing
Growth slows without recession; risk assets stabilize.
- SAP: p=0.27 · eff=0.120
- MSFT: p=0.30 · eff=0.096
- ASELS: p=0.25 · eff=0.021
- NVDA: p=0.31 · eff=0.018
Yahoo Market Activity Proxy Scores
| Stock | Date | Flow | Accumulation | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| QUAGR | 2026-10-29 | -3.95 | 30.3 | 69.7 |
| TUPRS | 2026-10-29 | -1.53 | 42.3 | 57.7 |
| MAVI | 2026-10-29 | -2.75 | 36.2 | 63.8 |
| PETKM | 2026-10-29 | -3.52 | 32.4 | 67.6 |
| TKFEN | 2026-10-29 | -0.50 | 47.5 | 52.5 |
| TUKAS | 2026-10-29 | -2.13 | 39.4 | 60.6 |
| KRDMD | 2026-10-29 | -3.67 | 31.6 | 68.4 |
| KTLEV | 2026-10-29 | -4.01 | 29.9 | 70.1 |
| OBAMS | 2026-10-29 | -0.14 | 49.3 | 50.7 |
| PASEU | 2026-10-29 | -4.01 | 29.9 | 70.1 |
| RALYH | 2026-10-29 | -3.54 | 32.3 | 67.7 |
| TUREX | 2026-10-29 | -2.56 | 37.2 | 62.8 |
Licensed BIST Member Flow
Blocked · no licensed provider data
BofA/MLB veya başka bir üye için canlı iddia üretilmiyor. Lisanslı EOD dosyası geldiğinde `db:import-member-flow` ve `db:backtest-member-flow` kapıları kullanılabilir.
Broker-member flow, not end-client identity. ACCUMULATION/DISTRIBUTION/TRADE labels require positive 70/30 out-of-sample edge, ≥20 observations, ≥55% test hit rate and t-stat ≥1.96.