consensus 0.354 · agreement 71.2 · calibrated conf 0.705 · data 93.2
Bull: MAVI · (Mavi Giyim) · Consumer Discretionary · Apparel: defensive bounce case only — 5d -4.4% / 20d -9.0%. Need reclaim of short-term structure before sizing. Lead model Ensemble (6 models) assigns p(up)=0.35; portfolio fit 5.0 with position not held.
Bear: MAVI: elevated vol (37.1%) and max drawdown 18.8% compress edge — false breakouts likely. Risk stack vol=92.7 · dd=62.8 · liq=0.0 · sector=93.2 → total 69.9.
Committee opinions: 7
consensus 0.200 · agreement 84.1 · calibrated conf 0.915 · data 92.4
Bull: ALKLC · (Altınkılıç Gıda ve Süt) · Consumer Staples · Food & Dairy: defensive bounce case only — 5d -34.5% / 20d -86.5%. Need reclaim of short-term structure before sizing. Lead model Ensemble (6 models) assigns p(up)=0.20; portfolio fit 5.0 with position not held.
Bear: ALKLC: extreme vol (84.2%) and max drawdown 95.7% compress edge — false breakouts likely. Risk stack vol=100.0 · dd=100.0 · liq=0.0 · sector=100.0 → total 85.0.
Committee opinions: 7
consensus 0.330 · agreement 66.3 · calibrated conf 0.702 · data 93.2
Bull: PETKM · (Petkim) · Materials · Petrochemicals: defensive bounce case only — 5d -8.1% / 20d -7.5%. Need reclaim of short-term structure before sizing. Lead model Ensemble (6 models) assigns p(up)=0.33; portfolio fit 5.0 with position not held.
Bear: PETKM: extreme vol (54.5%) and max drawdown 32.4% compress edge — false breakouts likely. Risk stack vol=100.0 · dd=100.0 · liq=0.0 · sector=100.0 → total 85.0.
Committee opinions: 7
consensus 0.262 · agreement 59.1 · calibrated conf 0.752 · data 93.2
Bull: QUAGR · (Qua Granite Hayal Yapı) · Materials · Building Materials: defensive bounce case only — 5d -2.9% / 20d -27.0%. Need reclaim of short-term structure before sizing. Lead model Ensemble (6 models) assigns p(up)=0.26; portfolio fit 5.0 with position not held.
Bear: QUAGR: extreme vol (60.0%) and max drawdown 67.5% compress edge — false breakouts likely. Risk stack vol=100.0 · dd=100.0 · liq=0.0 · sector=100.0 → total 85.0.
Committee opinions: 7
consensus 0.218 · agreement 69.9 · calibrated conf 0.850 · data 91.3
Bull: KTLEV · (Katılımevim) · Financials · Participation Finance: defensive bounce case only — 5d -17.2% / 20d -57.4%. Need reclaim of short-term structure before sizing. Lead model Ensemble (6 models) assigns p(up)=0.22; portfolio fit 5.0 with position not held.
Bear: KTLEV: extreme vol (104.5%) and max drawdown 94.1% compress edge — false breakouts likely. Risk stack vol=100.0 · dd=100.0 · liq=0.0 · sector=100.0 → total 85.0.
Committee opinions: 7
consensus 0.247 · agreement 59.5 · calibrated conf 0.764 · data 92.9
Bull: DAPGM · (DAP Gayrimenkul) · Real Estate · REIT / Development: defensive bounce case only — 5d -8.6% / 20d -23.5%. Need reclaim of short-term structure before sizing. Lead model Ensemble (6 models) assigns p(up)=0.25; portfolio fit 5.0 with position not held.
Bear: DAPGM: extreme vol (64.4%) and max drawdown 78.3% compress edge — false breakouts likely. Risk stack vol=100.0 · dd=100.0 · liq=0.0 · sector=100.0 → total 85.0.
Committee opinions: 7
consensus 0.227 · agreement 62.6 · calibrated conf 0.804 · data 92.0
Bull: GENIL · (Gen İlaç) · Health Care · Pharmaceuticals: defensive bounce case only — 5d -11.3% / 20d -36.8%. Need reclaim of short-term structure before sizing. Lead model Ensemble (6 models) assigns p(up)=0.23; portfolio fit 5.0 with position not held.
Bear: GENIL: extreme vol (76.8%) and max drawdown 70.0% compress edge — false breakouts likely. Risk stack vol=100.0 · dd=100.0 · liq=0.0 · sector=100.0 → total 85.0.
Committee opinions: 7
consensus 0.274 · agreement 55.6 · calibrated conf 0.731 · data 91.5
Bull: PASEU · (Pasifik Eurasia Lojistik) · Industrials · Logistics: defensive bounce case only — 5d -10.1% / 20d -11.0%. Need reclaim of short-term structure before sizing. Lead model Ensemble (6 models) assigns p(up)=0.27; portfolio fit 5.0 with position not held.
Bear: PASEU: extreme vol (124.4%) and max drawdown 90.6% compress edge — false breakouts likely. Risk stack vol=100.0 · dd=100.0 · liq=0.0 · sector=100.0 → total 85.0.
Committee opinions: 7
consensus 0.389 · agreement 74.2 · calibrated conf 0.696 · data 93.2
Bull: TUKAS · (Tukaş) · Consumer Staples · Food: defensive bounce case only — 5d -4.1% / 20d -3.6%. Need reclaim of short-term structure before sizing. Lead model Ensemble (6 models) assigns p(up)=0.39; portfolio fit 5.0 with position not held.
Bear: TUKAS: elevated vol (39.3%) and max drawdown 21.8% compress edge — false breakouts likely. Risk stack vol=98.3 · dd=72.7 · liq=0.0 · sector=100.0 → total 76.1.
Committee opinions: 7
consensus 0.289 · agreement 56.7 · calibrated conf 0.709 · data 93.1
Bull: YEOTK · (YEO Teknoloji Enerji) · Energy · Energy Technology: defensive bounce case only — 5d -4.1% / 20d -15.7%. Need reclaim of short-term structure before sizing. Lead model Ensemble (6 models) assigns p(up)=0.29; portfolio fit 5.0 with position not held.
Bear: YEOTK: extreme vol (70.6%) and max drawdown 52.3% compress edge — false breakouts likely. Risk stack vol=100.0 · dd=100.0 · liq=0.0 · sector=100.0 → total 85.0.
Committee opinions: 7
consensus 0.269 · agreement 58.9 · calibrated conf 0.740 · data 92.9
Bull: CWENE · (CW Enerji) · Energy · Renewables: defensive bounce case only — 5d -5.0% / 20d -20.9%. Need reclaim of short-term structure before sizing. Lead model Ensemble (6 models) assigns p(up)=0.27; portfolio fit 5.0 with position not held.
Bear: CWENE: extreme vol (72.4%) and max drawdown 69.4% compress edge — false breakouts likely. Risk stack vol=100.0 · dd=100.0 · liq=0.0 · sector=100.0 → total 85.0.
Committee opinions: 7
consensus 0.228 · agreement 61.6 · calibrated conf 0.796 · data 92.6
Bull: BSOKE · (Batısöke Çimento) · Materials · Cement: defensive bounce case only — 5d -8.8% / 20d -38.8%. Need reclaim of short-term structure before sizing. Lead model Ensemble (6 models) assigns p(up)=0.23; portfolio fit 5.0 with position not held.
Bear: BSOKE: extreme vol (74.7%) and max drawdown 88.5% compress edge — false breakouts likely. Risk stack vol=100.0 · dd=100.0 · liq=0.0 · sector=100.0 → total 85.0.
Committee opinions: 7
consensus 0.221 · agreement 67.7 · calibrated conf 0.825 · data 92.0
Bull: GUBRF · (Gübre Fabrikaları) · Materials · Chemicals / Fertilizer: defensive bounce case only — 5d -21.6% / 20d -32.4%. Need reclaim of short-term structure before sizing. Lead model Ensemble (6 models) assigns p(up)=0.22; portfolio fit 5.0 with position not held.
Bear: GUBRF: extreme vol (55.0%) and max drawdown 46.4% compress edge — false breakouts likely. Risk stack vol=100.0 · dd=100.0 · liq=0.0 · sector=100.0 → total 85.0.
Committee opinions: 7
consensus 0.326 · agreement 65.0 · calibrated conf 0.700 · data 93.2
Bull: EKGYO · (Emlak Konut GYO) · Real Estate · REIT: defensive bounce case only — 5d -8.0% / 20d -7.4%. Need reclaim of short-term structure before sizing. Lead model Ensemble (6 models) assigns p(up)=0.33; portfolio fit 5.0 with position not held.
Bear: EKGYO: elevated vol (43.7%) and max drawdown 25.1% compress edge — false breakouts likely. Risk stack vol=100.0 · dd=83.6 · liq=0.0 · sector=100.0 → total 80.1.
Committee opinions: 7
consensus 0.255 · agreement 61.4 · calibrated conf 0.773 · data 90.0
Bull: EFOR · (Efor Yatırım) · Financials · Investment: defensive bounce case only — 5d -26.0% / 20d -8.0%. Need reclaim of short-term structure before sizing. Lead model Ensemble (6 models) assigns p(up)=0.26; portfolio fit 5.0 with position not held.
Bear: EFOR: extreme vol (81.7%) and max drawdown 41.6% compress edge — false breakouts likely. Risk stack vol=100.0 · dd=100.0 · liq=0.0 · sector=100.0 → total 85.0.
Committee opinions: 7
consensus 0.334 · agreement 43.4 · calibrated conf 0.641 · data 92.8
Why not: Model dispersion is above the agreement gate
Bull: EUPWR · (Europower Enerji) · Energy · Power Equipment: bounce inside a soft 20d (-18.2%); treat strength as tactical unless 20d flips positive. Lead model Ensemble (6 models) assigns p(up)=0.33; portfolio fit 5.0 with position not held.
Bear: EUPWR: extreme vol (80.1%) and max drawdown 65.7% compress edge — false breakouts likely. Risk stack vol=100.0 · dd=100.0 · liq=0.0 · sector=100.0 → total 85.0.
Committee opinions: 7
consensus 0.261 · agreement 56.9 · calibrated conf 0.719 · data 93.2
Bull: KRDMD · (Kardemir (D)) · Materials · Steel: defensive bounce case only — 5d -10.7% / 20d -14.6%. Need reclaim of short-term structure before sizing. Lead model Ensemble (6 models) assigns p(up)=0.26; portfolio fit 5.0 with position not held.
Bear: KRDMD: elevated vol (47.1%) and max drawdown 24.1% compress edge — false breakouts likely. Risk stack vol=100.0 · dd=80.2 · liq=0.0 · sector=100.0 → total 79.0.
Committee opinions: 7
consensus 0.407 · agreement 42.5 · calibrated conf 0.559 · data 93.2
Why not: Model dispersion is above the agreement gate
Bull: OBAMS · (Oba Makarnacılık) · Consumer Staples · Food: bounce inside a soft 20d (-11.9%); treat strength as tactical unless 20d flips positive. Lead model Ensemble (6 models) assigns p(up)=0.41; portfolio fit 5.0 with position not held.
Bear: OBAMS: extreme vol (51.6%) and max drawdown 48.8% compress edge — false breakouts likely. Risk stack vol=100.0 · dd=100.0 · liq=0.0 · sector=100.0 → total 85.0.
Committee opinions: 7
consensus 0.196 · agreement 87.1 · calibrated conf 0.929 · data 78.4
Bull: RALYH · (Ral Yatırım Holding) · Financials · Holding: defensive bounce case only — 5d -40.8% / 20d -86.4%. Need reclaim of short-term structure before sizing. Lead model Ensemble (6 models) assigns p(up)=0.20; portfolio fit 5.0 with position not held.
Bear: RALYH: extreme vol (96.5%) and max drawdown 95.8% compress edge — false breakouts likely. Risk stack vol=100.0 · dd=100.0 · liq=0.0 · sector=100.0 → total 85.0.
Committee opinions: 7
consensus 0.379 · agreement 32.2 · calibrated conf 0.550 · data 92.0
Why not: Model dispersion is above the agreement gate
Bull: TKFEN · (Tekfen Holding) · Industrials · Conglomerate: bounce inside a soft 20d (-16.6%); treat strength as tactical unless 20d flips positive. Lead model Ensemble (6 models) assigns p(up)=0.38; portfolio fit 5.0 with position not held.
Bear: TKFEN: extreme vol (72.3%) and max drawdown 38.6% compress edge — false breakouts likely. Risk stack vol=100.0 · dd=100.0 · liq=0.0 · sector=100.0 → total 85.0.
Committee opinions: 7
consensus 0.401 · agreement 73.7 · calibrated conf 0.688 · data 93.2
Bull: TUPRS · (Tüpraş) · Energy · Oil Refining: defensive bounce case only — 5d -1.2% / 20d -5.6%. Need reclaim of short-term structure before sizing. Lead model Ensemble (6 models) assigns p(up)=0.40; portfolio fit 5.0 with position not held.
Bear: TUPRS: elevated vol (42.0%) and max drawdown 15.6% compress edge — false breakouts likely. Risk stack vol=100.0 · dd=51.9 · liq=0.0 · sector=100.0 → total 70.6.
Committee opinions: 7
consensus 0.348 · agreement 63.0 · calibrated conf 0.682 · data 93.0
Bull: TUREX · (Tureks Turizm Taşımacılık) · Industrials · Transport: defensive bounce case only — 5d -2.7% / 20d -8.6%. Need reclaim of short-term structure before sizing. Lead model Ensemble (6 models) assigns p(up)=0.35; portfolio fit 5.0 with position not held.
Bear: TUREX: extreme vol (51.2%) and max drawdown 37.7% compress edge — false breakouts likely. Risk stack vol=100.0 · dd=100.0 · liq=0.0 · sector=100.0 → total 85.0.
Committee opinions: 7
consensus 0.260 · agreement 58.9 · calibrated conf 0.741 · data 93.2
Bull: ALTNY · (Altınay Savunma) · Industrials · Defense: defensive bounce case only — 5d -7.5% / 20d -19.9%. Need reclaim of short-term structure before sizing. Lead model Ensemble (6 models) assigns p(up)=0.26; portfolio fit 5.0 with position not held.
Bear: ALTNY: extreme vol (60.0%) and max drawdown 47.3% compress edge — false breakouts likely. Risk stack vol=100.0 · dd=100.0 · liq=0.0 · sector=100.0 → total 85.0.
Committee opinions: 7
consensus 0.378 · agreement 70.0 · calibrated conf 0.688 · data 93.2
Bull: CANTE · (Can2 Termik) · Energy · Utilities: defensive bounce case only — 5d -2.1% / 20d -6.9%. Need reclaim of short-term structure before sizing. Lead model Ensemble (6 models) assigns p(up)=0.38; portfolio fit 5.0 with position not held.
Bear: CANTE: elevated vol (45.6%) and max drawdown 32.1% compress edge — false breakouts likely. Risk stack vol=100.0 · dd=100.0 · liq=0.0 · sector=100.0 → total 85.0.
Committee opinions: 7
consensus 0.542 · agreement 75.7 · calibrated conf 0.610 · data 95.2
Bull: ASELS · (Aselsan) · Technology · Defense Electronics: tape regime strong-up (5d 3.7%, 20d 6.5%). Continuation works if realized vol stays extreme and drawdown holds near 20.2%. Lead model Ensemble (6 models) assigns p(up)=0.54; portfolio fit 5.0 with position not held.
Bear: ASELS: extreme vol (51.4%) and max drawdown 20.2% compress edge — false breakouts likely. Risk stack vol=100.0 · dd=67.5 · liq=0.0 · sector=100.0 → total 75.2.
Committee opinions: 7
consensus 0.305 · agreement 61.4 · calibrated conf 0.701 · data 93.2
Bull: BIMAS · (BİM Mağazalar) · Consumer Staples · Retail: defensive bounce case only — 5d -5.4% / 20d -12.8%. Need reclaim of short-term structure before sizing. Lead model Ensemble (6 models) assigns p(up)=0.30; portfolio fit 5.0 with position not held.
Bear: BIMAS: trend failure if 5d/20d reverse from regime strong-down; watch drawdown 16.5%. Risk stack vol=80.7 · dd=55.0 · liq=0.0 · sector=82.7 → total 61.2.
Committee opinions: 7
consensus 0.422 · agreement 73.8 · calibrated conf 0.678 · data 93.2
Bull: CIMSA · (Çimsa) · Materials · Cement: bounce inside a soft 20d (-4.8%); treat strength as tactical unless 20d flips positive. Lead model Ensemble (6 models) assigns p(up)=0.42; portfolio fit 5.0 with position not held.
Bear: CIMSA: trend failure if 5d/20d reverse from regime bounce-in-downtrend; watch drawdown 26.1%. Risk stack vol=80.7 · dd=86.9 · liq=0.0 · sector=82.0 → total 70.6.
Committee opinions: 7
consensus 0.511 · agreement 61.5 · calibrated conf 0.580 · data 93.0
Bull: CVKMD · (CVK Maden) · Materials · Mining: tape regime constructive (5d 6.0%, 20d 2.2%). Continuation works if realized vol stays extreme and drawdown holds near 71.5%. Lead model Ensemble (6 models) assigns p(up)=0.51; portfolio fit 5.0 with position not held.
Bear: CVKMD: extreme vol (117.2%) and max drawdown 71.5% compress edge — false breakouts likely. Risk stack vol=100.0 · dd=100.0 · liq=0.0 · sector=100.0 → total 85.0.
Committee opinions: 7
consensus 0.260 · agreement 58.8 · calibrated conf 0.741 · data 93.0
Bull: GLRMK · (Gülermak Ağır Sanayi) · Industrials · Construction: defensive bounce case only — 5d -7.7% / 20d -19.6%. Need reclaim of short-term structure before sizing. Lead model Ensemble (6 models) assigns p(up)=0.26; portfolio fit 5.0 with position not held.
Bear: GLRMK: extreme vol (50.3%) and max drawdown 42.0% compress edge — false breakouts likely. Risk stack vol=100.0 · dd=100.0 · liq=0.0 · sector=100.0 → total 85.0.
Committee opinions: 7
consensus 0.259 · agreement 58.5 · calibrated conf 0.734 · data 93.2
Bull: EREGL · (Ereğli Demir Çelik) · Materials · Steel: defensive bounce case only — 5d -14.5% / 20d -13.1%. Need reclaim of short-term structure before sizing. Lead model Ensemble (6 models) assigns p(up)=0.26; portfolio fit 5.0 with position not held.
Bear: EREGL: elevated vol (42.3%) and max drawdown 30.2% compress edge — false breakouts likely. Risk stack vol=100.0 · dd=100.0 · liq=0.0 · sector=100.0 → total 85.0.
Committee opinions: 7
consensus 0.660 · agreement 75.9 · calibrated conf 0.628 · data 95.4
Bull: ASELS · (Aselsan) · Technology · Defense Electronics: tape regime constructive (5d 0.4%, 20d 19.6%). Continuation works if realized vol stays elevated and drawdown holds near 22.5%. Lead model Ensemble (6 models) assigns p(up)=0.66; portfolio fit 5.0 with position not held.
Bear: ASELS: elevated vol (49.9%) and max drawdown 22.5% compress edge — false breakouts likely. Risk stack vol=100.0 · dd=75.1 · liq=0.0 · sector=100.0 → total 77.5.
Committee opinions: 7
consensus 0.656 · agreement 76.2 · calibrated conf 0.491 · data 82.9
Bull: ALTNY · (Altınay Savunma) · Industrials · Defense: pullback-in-uptrend (5d -0.4% inside 20d 21.1%). Mean-revert gap -21.4% offers a staged entry if risk score cools. Lead model Ensemble (6 models) assigns p(up)=0.66; portfolio fit 5.0 with position not held.
Bear: ALTNY: extreme vol (52.8%) and max drawdown 21.9% compress edge — false breakouts likely. Risk stack vol=100.0 · dd=72.9 · liq=0.0 · sector=100.0 → total 76.9.
Committee opinions: 7
consensus 0.556 · agreement 91.0 · calibrated conf 0.349 · data 82.9
Why not: Calibrated confidence is below 45%
Bull: BIMAS · (BİM Mağazalar) · Consumer Staples · Retail: tape regime constructive (5d 0.7%, 20d 8.0%). Continuation works if realized vol stays normal-high and drawdown holds near 13.8%. Lead model Ensemble (6 models) assigns p(up)=0.56; portfolio fit 5.0 with position not held.
Bear: BIMAS: trend failure if 5d/20d reverse from regime constructive; watch drawdown 13.8%. Risk stack vol=80.7 · dd=45.9 · liq=0.0 · sector=82.5 → total 58.4.
Committee opinions: 7
consensus 0.247 · agreement 60.0 · calibrated conf 0.600 · data 82.8
Bull: BSOKE · (Batısöke Çimento) · Materials · Cement: defensive bounce case only — 5d -11.6% / 20d -14.6%. Need reclaim of short-term structure before sizing. Lead model Ensemble (6 models) assigns p(up)=0.25; portfolio fit 5.0 with position not held.
Bear: BSOKE: elevated vol (44.0%) and max drawdown 22.6% compress edge — false breakouts likely. Risk stack vol=100.0 · dd=75.3 · liq=0.0 · sector=100.0 → total 77.6.
Committee opinions: 7
consensus 0.539 · agreement 90.4 · calibrated conf 0.343 · data 82.9
Why not: Calibrated confidence is below 45%
Bull: ALKLC · (Altınkılıç Gıda ve Süt) · Consumer Staples · Food & Dairy: pullback-in-uptrend (5d -1.6% inside 20d 6.3%). Mean-revert gap -7.9% offers a staged entry if risk score cools. Lead model Ensemble (6 models) assigns p(up)=0.54; portfolio fit 5.0 with position not held.
Bear: ALKLC: extreme vol (58.1%) and max drawdown 31.2% compress edge — false breakouts likely. Risk stack vol=100.0 · dd=100.0 · liq=0.0 · sector=100.0 → total 85.0.
Committee opinions: 7
consensus 0.217 · agreement 66.2 · calibrated conf 0.683 · data 82.7
Bull: CVKMD · (CVK Maden) · Materials · Mining: defensive bounce case only — 5d -5.0% / 20d -57.6%. Need reclaim of short-term structure before sizing. Lead model Ensemble (6 models) assigns p(up)=0.22; portfolio fit 5.0 with position not held.
Bear: CVKMD: extreme vol (117.5%) and max drawdown 69.5% compress edge — false breakouts likely. Risk stack vol=100.0 · dd=100.0 · liq=0.0 · sector=100.0 → total 85.0.
Committee opinions: 7
consensus 0.487 · agreement 90.5 · calibrated conf 0.388 · data 80.3
Why not: Calibrated confidence is below 45%
Bull: CANTE · (Can2 Termik) · Energy · Utilities: tape regime constructive (5d 0.0%, 20d 1.7%). Continuation works if realized vol stays normal-high and drawdown holds near 38.2%. Lead model Ensemble (6 models) assigns p(up)=0.49; portfolio fit 5.0 with position not held.
Bear: CANTE: trend failure if 5d/20d reverse from regime constructive; watch drawdown 38.2%. Risk stack vol=86.8 · dd=100.0 · liq=0.0 · sector=88.4 → total 78.0.
Committee opinions: 7
consensus 0.734 · agreement 57.7 · calibrated conf 0.441 · data 82.8
Why not: Calibrated confidence is below 45%
Bull: TUPRS · (Tüpraş) · Energy · Oil Refining: pullback-in-uptrend (5d -3.7% inside 20d 32.2%). Mean-revert gap -35.9% offers a staged entry if risk score cools. Lead model Ensemble (6 models) assigns p(up)=0.73; portfolio fit 5.0 with position not held.
Bear: TUPRS: elevated vol (41.5%) and max drawdown 21.3% compress edge — false breakouts likely. Risk stack vol=100.0 · dd=71.0 · liq=0.0 · sector=100.0 → total 76.3.
Committee opinions: 7
consensus 0.511 · agreement 96.6 · calibrated conf 0.344 · data 82.9
Why not: Calibrated confidence is below 45%
Bull: TUKAS · (Tukaş) · Consumer Staples · Food: tape regime constructive (5d 0.0%, 20d 2.5%). Continuation works if realized vol stays normal-high and drawdown holds near 29.6%. Lead model Ensemble (6 models) assigns p(up)=0.51; portfolio fit 5.0 with position not held.
Bear: TUKAS: trend failure if 5d/20d reverse from regime constructive; watch drawdown 29.6%. Risk stack vol=73.1 · dd=98.8 · liq=0.0 · sector=70.0 → total 69.4.
Committee opinions: 7
consensus 0.416 · agreement 81.5 · calibrated conf 0.547 · data 82.5
Bull: TUREX · (Tureks Turizm Taşımacılık) · Industrials · Transport: defensive bounce case only — 5d -4.6% / 20d -0.5%. Need reclaim of short-term structure before sizing. Lead model Ensemble (6 models) assigns p(up)=0.42; portfolio fit 5.0 with position not held.
Bear: TUREX: elevated vol (46.8%) and max drawdown 34.2% compress edge — false breakouts likely. Risk stack vol=100.0 · dd=100.0 · liq=0.0 · sector=100.0 → total 85.0.
Committee opinions: 7