VALUE MANAGER
41.3No clear value dislocation from price path alone.
Mean-revert gap 10.8%.
BIST · 2026-10-28
GUBRF — AVOID
Gübre Fabrikaları · operator [email protected]
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Outcome review · Learning Engine · Signal history
Scores
- prediction: 22.1
- confidence: 82.5
- opportunity: 33.3
- timing: 77.2
- portfolio fit: 5.0
Bull Case
GUBRF · (Gübre Fabrikaları) · Materials · Chemicals / Fertilizer: defensive bounce case only — 5d -21.6% / 20d -32.4%. Need reclaim of short-term structure before sizing. Lead model Ensemble (6 models) assigns p(up)=0.22; portfolio fit 5.0 with position not held.
Bear Case
GUBRF: extreme vol (55.0%) and max drawdown 46.4% compress edge — false breakouts likely. Risk stack vol=100.0 · dd=100.0 · liq=0.0 · sector=100.0 → total 85.0.
Ensemble & Uncertainty
- consensus p(up): 0.221
- agreement: 67.7
- dispersion: 0.081
- calibrated conf: 0.825
- risk of wrong: 0.175
- data quality: 92.0
- 1d p10–p90: -0.036 → 0.100
- 5d p10–p90: 0.106 → 0.120
source: QBMosaic weighted ensembleproxy / heuristicas of 2026-10-28 09:35 UTC
Same-as-of model votes weighted by learned StockModel weights, then gated by calibration, agreement and data quality.
Point-in-Time Intraday Timing
- availability: INSUFFICIENT
- readiness: —
- session: 2026-10-28
- activity: HIGH
- RVOL-T: 1.51
- deviation: -0.39pp
- Current intraday quality 32.3 is below 60
source: Yahoo Finance observed 5-minute barsproxy / heuristicas of 2026-10-28 09:35 UTC
Quality-, freshness- and sample-gated timing readiness. Volume, activity and deviation are non-directional and never change BUY into AVOID.
DQS contribution
daily 35.0 · models 25.0 · intraday 14.0 · settled 18.0
- Intraday diagnostics report 1 quality issues
- 2 intraday sessions are incomplete
Why Not?
No hard NO_ACTION gate fired.
Catalysts
Yahoo path features (n=90) · asOf=2026-10-28 · model=Ensemble (6 models) · p(up)=0.22 · regime=strong-down · vol=extreme · fit=5.0 · not held · sector=Materials · evidence=no verified research evidence
Invalidation
Invalidate if total market risk > 95.0, drawdown extends beyond 51.4%, or 5d return worsens by >3pp without 20d repair. Liquidity score > 25.0 also voids size-up.
Key Assumptions
Rule thesis over Yahoo closes (sample 90). Mean-revert proxy 10.8%. Intraday timing INSUFFICIENT; activity is non-directional. Verified evidence count 0; unverified imports are excluded. No live LLM; committee text is numeric templates. XK030/sharia screens are membership-only — not a fundamental audit.
Exit Conditions
Remain flat. Re-open only after total risk < 60 and regime leaves strong-down/mixed with rising p(up). Exit any residual on further DD extension.
Paper Position
Replay Closure
Decision Evidence Pack
No verified point-in-time research evidence was attached to this decision.
AI Committee
GROWTH MANAGER
15.0Growth case needs stronger directional odds.
p(up)=0.22 from Ensemble (6 models) · Chemicals / Fertilizer.
MACRO MANAGER
15.0Intermediate trend pressure argues patience.
20d regime -32.4% with vol 55.0% · Materials. No verified financial/news/disclosure evidence.
TECHNICAL MANAGER
15.0Tape soft (strong-down) — wait for reclaim.
5d -21.6% / 20d -32.4%; mean-revert 10.8%. Intraday timing INSUFFICIENT; no eligible observed 5-minute context.
RISK MANAGER
10.0Risk budget strained — size down or avoid.
Total 85.0 · volR 100.0 · ddR 100.0 · ann.vol 55.0%.
SENTIMENT MANAGER
82.5Signal confidence supportive.
Confidence 82.5; decision AVOID. No verified financial/news/disclosure evidence.
CIO MANAGER
48.6Aggregate call: AVOID.
Opp 33.3 · fit 5.0 · risk 85.0 · not held.