- models: 6
- consensus p(up): 0.276
- agreement: 57.5
- dispersion: 0.106
- calibrated conf: 0.554
- risk of wrong: 0.446
Predictions
Prediction Engine
Market-informed olasılıklar. Settle: Yahoo 1d + 5d forward bars. Thin history → hash fallback.
Bu sayfa ne işe yarıyor?
Olasılıksal tahminler. Kesinlik yoktur; yön olasılığı ve güven vardır.
Hangi soruya cevap veriyor?
Modeller bu isim için hangi olasılığı ve hangi ufku üretiyor?
Kararda nasıl kullanılmalı?
Ham tahmini karar sanmayın. Decision Engine + PPS olmadan işlem açılmaz.
Hangi motora veri sağlar?
Decision Engine · Predictability Engine · Settlement
200 trackedopen 1801d settled 20 · hit 100%3d settled 20 · hit 90%5d settled 20 · hit 90%avg conf 0.78high-conf open 135
Model Consensus
- models: 6
- consensus p(up): 0.335
- agreement: 62.6
- dispersion: 0.093
- calibrated conf: 0.561
- risk of wrong: 0.439
- models: 6
- consensus p(up): 0.391
- agreement: 73.2
- dispersion: 0.067
- calibrated conf: 0.588
- risk of wrong: 0.412
- models: 6
- consensus p(up): 0.382
- agreement: 74.3
- dispersion: 0.064
- calibrated conf: 0.582
- risk of wrong: 0.418
- models: 6
- consensus p(up): 0.353
- agreement: 33.1
- dispersion: 0.167
- calibrated conf: 0.474
- risk of wrong: 0.526
- models: 6
- consensus p(up): 0.194
- agreement: 88.0
- dispersion: 0.030
- calibrated conf: 0.732
- risk of wrong: 0.268
- models: 6
- consensus p(up): 0.250
- agreement: 61.0
- dispersion: 0.098
- calibrated conf: 0.602
- risk of wrong: 0.398
- models: 6
- consensus p(up): 0.324
- agreement: 67.7
- dispersion: 0.081
- calibrated conf: 0.605
- risk of wrong: 0.396
- models: 6
- consensus p(up): 0.264
- agreement: 56.8
- dispersion: 0.108
- calibrated conf: 0.587
- risk of wrong: 0.413
- models: 6
- consensus p(up): 0.384
- agreement: 41.9
- dispersion: 0.145
- calibrated conf: 0.505
- risk of wrong: 0.495
- models: 6
- consensus p(up): 0.346
- agreement: 71.9
- dispersion: 0.070
- calibrated conf: 0.606
- risk of wrong: 0.394
- models: 6
- consensus p(up): 0.212
- agreement: 72.0
- dispersion: 0.070
- calibrated conf: 0.675
- risk of wrong: 0.325
source: QBMosaic + StockModel weightsproxy / heuristicas of 2026-10-28 06:30 UTCn=12
Same-stock, exact-as-of model probabilities are weighted by learned per-stock weights. Agreement falls as weighted dispersion rises; calibration reliability brakes confidence.
Prediction vs Outcome
Confidence
Quality by Model
- LSTM3/33 settled · hit 100%
- Macro Model3/33 settled · hit 100%
- Momentum3/33 settled · hit 100%
- News Model3/33 settled · hit 100%
- Transformer4/34 settled · hit 100%
- XGBoost4/34 settled · hit 100%
Open Queue
- YEOTKXGBoost · p(up) 0.34 · conf 0.73 · hz none
- YEOTKTransformer · p(up) 0.18 · conf 0.86 · hz none
- YEOTKNews Model · p(up) 0.47 · conf 0.67 · hz none
- YEOTKMomentum · p(up) 0.29 · conf 0.76 · hz none
- YEOTKMacro Model · p(up) 0.18 · conf 0.89 · hz none
- YEOTKLSTM · p(up) 0.18 · conf 0.86 · hz none
- TUREXXGBoost · p(up) 0.41 · conf 0.69 · hz none
- TUREXTransformer · p(up) 0.26 · conf 0.78 · hz none
- TUREXNews Model · p(up) 0.48 · conf 0.66 · hz none
- TUREXMomentum · p(up) 0.37 · conf 0.71 · hz none
- TUREXMacro Model · p(up) 0.22 · conf 0.80 · hz none
- TUREXLSTM · p(up) 0.26 · conf 0.78 · hz none
Generate Predictions
BIST:ALKLC
BIST:ALTNY
BIST:ASELS
BIST:BIMAS
BIST:BSOKE
BIST:CANTE
BIST:CIMSA
BIST:CVKMD
BIST:CWENE
BIST:DAPGM
BIST:EFOR
BIST:EKGYO
BIST:EREGL
BIST:EUPWR
BIST:GENIL
BIST:GLRMK
BIST:GUBRF
BIST:KRDMD
BIST:KTLEV
BIST:MAVI
BIST:OBAMS
BIST:PASEU
BIST:PETKM
BIST:QUAGR
BIST:RALYH
BIST:TKFEN
BIST:TUKAS
BIST:TUPRS
BIST:TUREX
BIST:XU100
BIST:YEOTK
NASDAQ:AAPL
NASDAQ:GOOGL
NASDAQ:MSFT
NASDAQ:NVDA
XETRA:SAP
XETRA:SIE
| Stock | Model | P(up) | E[r] | Risk | Confidence | Outcomes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YEOTK | XGBoost | 0.34 | -0.050 | 0.550 | 0.73 | Open |
| YEOTK | Transformer | 0.18 | -0.050 | 0.550 | 0.86 | Open |
| YEOTK | News Model | 0.47 | -0.050 | 0.550 | 0.67 | Open |
| YEOTK | Momentum | 0.29 | -0.050 | 0.550 | 0.76 | Open |
| YEOTK | Macro Model | 0.18 | -0.050 | 0.550 | 0.89 | Open |
| YEOTK | LSTM | 0.18 | -0.050 | 0.550 | 0.86 | Open |
| TUREX | XGBoost | 0.41 | -0.029 | 0.547 | 0.69 | Open |
| TUREX | Transformer | 0.26 | -0.029 | 0.547 | 0.78 | Open |
| TUREX | News Model | 0.48 | -0.029 | 0.547 | 0.66 | Open |
| TUREX | Momentum | 0.37 | -0.029 | 0.547 | 0.71 | Open |
| TUREX | Macro Model | 0.22 | -0.029 | 0.547 | 0.80 | Open |
| TUREX | LSTM | 0.26 | -0.029 | 0.547 | 0.78 | Open |
| TUPRS | XGBoost | 0.44 | -0.017 | 0.364 | 0.68 | Open |
| TUPRS | Transformer | 0.34 | -0.017 | 0.364 | 0.73 | Open |
| TUPRS | News Model | 0.49 | -0.017 | 0.364 | 0.66 | Open |
| TUPRS | Momentum | 0.43 | -0.017 | 0.364 | 0.68 | Open |
| TUPRS | Macro Model | 0.30 | -0.017 | 0.364 | 0.75 | Open |
| TUPRS | LSTM | 0.34 | -0.017 | 0.364 | 0.73 | Open |
| TUKAS | XGBoost | 0.45 | -0.026 | 0.420 | 0.67 | Open |
| TUKAS | Transformer | 0.33 | -0.026 | 0.420 | 0.74 | Open |
| TUKAS | News Model | 0.48 | -0.026 | 0.420 | 0.66 | Open |
| TUKAS | Momentum | 0.37 | -0.026 | 0.420 | 0.71 | Open |
| TUKAS | Macro Model | 0.32 | -0.026 | 0.420 | 0.74 | Open |
| TUKAS | LSTM | 0.33 | -0.026 | 0.420 | 0.74 | Open |
| TKFEN | XGBoost | 0.36 | 0.011 | 0.550 | 0.72 | Open |
| TKFEN | Transformer | 0.21 | 0.011 | 0.550 | 0.81 | Open |
| TKFEN | News Model | 0.52 | 0.011 | 0.550 | 0.66 | Open |
| TKFEN | Momentum | 0.62 | 0.011 | 0.550 | 0.71 | Open |
| TKFEN | Macro Model | 0.18 | 0.011 | 0.550 | 0.92 | Open |
| TKFEN | LSTM | 0.21 | 0.011 | 0.550 | 0.81 | Open |
| RALYH | XGBoost | 0.18 | -0.100 | 0.345 | 0.92 | Open |
| RALYH | Transformer | 0.18 | -0.100 | 0.345 | 0.92 | Open |
| RALYH | News Model | 0.26 | -0.100 | 0.345 | 0.78 | Open |
| RALYH | Momentum | 0.18 | -0.100 | 0.345 | 0.92 | Open |
| RALYH | Macro Model | 0.18 | -0.100 | 0.345 | 0.92 | Open |
| RALYH | LSTM | 0.18 | -0.100 | 0.345 | 0.92 | Open |
| QUAGR | XGBoost | 0.25 | -0.067 | 0.550 | 0.78 | Open |
| QUAGR | Transformer | 0.18 | -0.067 | 0.550 | 0.92 | Open |
| QUAGR | News Model | 0.46 | -0.067 | 0.550 | 0.67 | Open |
| QUAGR | Momentum | 0.25 | -0.067 | 0.550 | 0.78 | Open |