BIST · TRY
TKFEN — Tekfen Holding
Industrials · Conglomerate · TR
Bu sayfa ne işe yarıyor?
Tek hisse için fiyat, risk, adaptive challenger ve nihai Decision Card.
Hangi soruya cevap veriyor?
Bu hissede şu anda rasyonel işlem nedir ve neden?
Kararda nasıl kullanılmalı?
Grafikler gerekçeyi açıklar. Nihai aksiyon Decision Card’daki AL/SAT/TUT/BEKLE’dir.
Hangi motora veri sağlar?
Predictability · Regime · Risk · Signal Engine
Decision Card
BIST:TKFEN · Tekfen Holding
- Güven
- 55
- Optimal ufuk
- 1g
- Predictability
- 47
- Opportunity
- 39
- Beklenen getiri
- -0.3%
- Beklenen downside
- -0.3%
- Rejim
- BEAR:HIGH_VOLATILITY
- Regime güven
- 49
- Risk
- YÜKSEK
- Hesap
- 2026-10-28 09:35
- Veri aralığı
- 2021-10-28 → 2026-10-28
- Tazelik
- 2g önce
- Decision engine
- decision-v1
- Strateji
- Ensemble (6 models)
- Model
- ensemble-heuristic-v1
- Özellik / veri
- adaptive-factor-v1 · yahoo:daily
- EMA OOS
- 55 · CROSS_BELOW · n=33
TKFEN — BEKLE Optimal horizon: 1 gün Predictability: %47 Opportunity Score: 39 Beklenen net hareket: -0.3% Regime: BEAR:HIGH_VOLATILITY · güven %49 Opportunity sürücüleri: Beklenen net getiri, Predictability, Regime confidence. Sınıf: Güvenilmez. Operasyonel motor NO_ACTION üretti; işlem açılmıyor. EMA9, EMA36'yı aşağı kesti (bearish crossover). BIST'te short değil; çıkış/BEKLE adayı. Bu sinyal bu seride 33 kez oluştu (filtrelenmiş örnek: 34). 10 bar sonra win rate 52%, medyan getiri 1.5%. Reliability 59 / OOS 55. Karar motoru OOS'a daha çok ağırlık verir. En güçlü rejim WEAK_BULL: win rate 71% (n=7). OOS'ta BASE'den sağlam duran filtre: SLOPE. In-sample getiri ile seçilmedi. EMA tek başına AL üretmez.
BEKLE, edge oluşana kadar geçerlidir. Predictability ≥ 80 tek başına AL üretmez.
Opportunity bileşenleri
- Predictability47 · w16
- Beklenen net getiri49 · w20
- Karar opportunity28 · w15
- Risk-ayarlı getiri19 · w13
- Regime confidence49 · w11
- Maliyet sonrası dayanıklılık— · w9
- Örnek yeterliliği60 · w8
- EMA crossover (OOS)19 · w8
EMA Crossover
- EMA9
- 192.08
- EMA36
- 214.93
- Son crossover
- CROSS BELOW · 8 bar
- Reliability
- 59 / OOS 55
- Win rate
- 52%
- Medyan 10-bar
- 1.5%
- Örnek
- 33
- Profit factor
- 1.16
- Rejim
- WEAK_BULL · 71%
- MFE / MAE
- 9.8% / -6.6%
Neden? · TKFEN
- EMA9, EMA36'yı aşağı kesti (bearish crossover). BIST'te short değil; çıkış/BEKLE adayı.
- Bu sinyal bu seride 33 kez oluştu (filtrelenmiş örnek: 34).
- 10 bar sonra win rate 52%, medyan getiri 1.5%.
- Reliability 59 / OOS 55. Karar motoru OOS'a daha çok ağırlık verir.
- En güçlü rejim WEAK_BULL: win rate 71% (n=7).
- OOS'ta BASE'den sağlam duran filtre: SLOPE. In-sample getiri ile seçilmedi.
- EMA tek başına AL üretmez.
Whipsaw filtreleri (OOS)
- BASEOOS 48 · n=34
- ADX20OOS 35 · n=19
- EMA200OOS 35 · n=16
- VOLUMEOOS 53 · n=19
- RSI50OOS 48 · n=34
- HTF_TRENDOOS 29 · n=12
- SLOPE · seçiliOOS 55 · n=33
- SEPARATIONOOS 35 · n=16
- ATROOS 46 · n=28
En sağlam yakın çift EMA12/26 (robustness 67). En yüksek in-sample getiri EMA50/200 — bu yüzden seçilmedi.
TKFEN 1d EMA9/36 genel win rate 52%; rejim kırılımı kartın üstünde. Yatay / düşük örnek rejimler BEKLE’ye iter.
Operator Actions
Price
Observed daily OHLCV bars. Yahoo is an unofficial free feed and may be delayed or incomplete.
Yahoo Features
- sample: 120 closes
- ret5: 5.93%
- ret20: 25.89%
- mean-revert gap: -19.96%
- ann. vol: 37%
Predictability
47
Volatility
100
Liquidity
100
ret5, ret20, mean-reversion gap and annualized realized volatility; profile scores are market-risk heuristics.
Intraday Pattern · Open = 100
Latest session
193 · +0.84%
Same time · previous
-1.63%
5D / 20D median
-0.05% / 0.12%
RVOL-T
1.04×
Time Activity Score
63 / 100
NORMAL
- session: 2026-10-28
- same weekday: 0.92%
- deviation: 0.71 pp
- 5D mean: -0.3% · n=5
- 20D mean: 0.42% · n=20
- volume ratio: 1.04×
- volatility ratio: 1.72×
- complete history: 46
- same-weekday n: 7
- excluded incomplete: 3
Sync quality & outliers
- invalid bars: 0
- duplicate slots: 0
- price outliers: 1
- volume outliers: 0
- average quality: 77.1
- sync duration: 270 ms
Each session is normalized to open=100. Median is primary and dotted mean is auxiliary; incomplete/price-outlier sessions are excluded. RVOL-T compares cumulative volume with prior 20 complete sessions. Activity is not a direction forecast.
Market Risk
- total: 85
- volatility: 100
- drawdown: 100
- liquidity: 0
- sector: 100
- portfolio: 95
Realized volatility, peak-to-trough drawdown and volume-liquidity heuristics. Sector risk is a profile hint.
Latest Prediction
- model: Momentum
- p(up): 0.619
- E[r]: 0.011
- risk: 0.55
- conf: 0.708
- outcomes: Open
Model-name-specific feature weights; not trained XGBoost/LSTM/Transformer inference. Thin history may use deterministic fallback.
Latest Decision
quality 38.8 · risk 85 · fit 5
- consensus p(up): 0.379
- agreement: 32.2
- dispersion: 0.17
- calibrated conf: 0.55
- risk of wrong: 0.45
- data quality: 92
- 1d p10–p90: -0.003 → -0.002
- 5d p10–p90: -0.065 → -0.058
Why not?
- Model dispersion is above the agreement gate
Bull: TKFEN · (Tekfen Holding) · Industrials · Conglomerate: bounce inside a soft 20d (-16.6%); treat strength as tactical unless 20d flips positive. Lead model Ensemble (6 models) assigns p(up)=0.38; portfolio fit 5.0 with position not held.
Bear: TKFEN: extreme vol (72.3%) and max drawdown 38.6% compress edge — false breakouts likely. Risk stack vol=100.0 · dd=100.0 · liq=0.0 · sector=100.0 → total 85.0.
Yahoo path features (n=90) · asOf=2026-10-28 · model=Ensemble (6 models) · p(up)=0.38 · regime=bounce-in-downtrend · vol=extreme · fit=5.0 · not held · sector=Industrials · evidence=no verified research evidence
Invalidation: Invalidate if total market risk > 95.0, drawdown extends beyond 43.6%, or 5d return worsens by >3pp without 20d repair. Liquidity score > 25.0 also voids size-up.
Exit: Wait for clearer 5d/20d alignment. No new risk until confidence and fit both improve.
StockModel-weighted same-as-of ensemble with calibration, agreement and data-quality gates. Empirical intervals are p10–p90 settled returns. Thesis and committee are templates, not live LLM agents.
Yahoo Market Activity Proxy
- flow: -0.5
- accum: 47.5
- distrib: 52.5
Market-activity proxy from volume × price × momentum. Not BIST member, BofA/MLB, custody or order-flow data.
Catalyst Timeline
- 2026-03-31 · FINANCIALunverified / excludedimportance 65
TKFEN TTM financial results
Yahoo quote-summary TTM proxy; not an official KAP financial statement
Earnings quality and balance-sheet trajectory · Yahoo Finance Fundamentals Proxy
Only explicitly verified catalyst records are attached to new theses and committee reasoning; unverified imports remain visible but excluded.
Recent Predictions
- Momentump(up) 0.62 · Open
- News Modelp(up) 0.52 · Open
- LSTMp(up) 0.21 · Open
- Macro Modelp(up) 0.18 · Open
- Transformerp(up) 0.21 · Open
Scenario Sensitivities
- Risk-Off Shockp 0.95 · eff -20%
- Inflation Reaccelerationp 0.77 · eff -14.5%
- Soft Landingp 0.25 · eff -11.6%
Heuristic scenario sensitivity; not a macro world model or counterfactual simulation.