VALUE MANAGER
28.9No clear value dislocation from price path alone.
Mean-revert gap 26.4%.
BIST · 2026-10-28
TKFEN — NO_ACTION
Tekfen Holding · operator [email protected]
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Outcome review · Learning Engine · Signal history
Scores
- prediction: 37.9
- confidence: 55.0
- opportunity: 28.2
- timing: 54.4
- portfolio fit: 5.0
Bull Case
TKFEN · (Tekfen Holding) · Industrials · Conglomerate: bounce inside a soft 20d (-16.6%); treat strength as tactical unless 20d flips positive. Lead model Ensemble (6 models) assigns p(up)=0.38; portfolio fit 5.0 with position not held.
Bear Case
TKFEN: extreme vol (72.3%) and max drawdown 38.6% compress edge — false breakouts likely. Risk stack vol=100.0 · dd=100.0 · liq=0.0 · sector=100.0 → total 85.0.
Ensemble & Uncertainty
- consensus p(up): 0.379
- agreement: 32.2
- dispersion: 0.170
- calibrated conf: 0.550
- risk of wrong: 0.450
- data quality: 92.0
- 1d p10–p90: -0.003 → -0.002
- 5d p10–p90: -0.065 → -0.058
source: QBMosaic weighted ensembleproxy / heuristicas of 2026-10-28 09:35 UTC
Same-as-of model votes weighted by learned StockModel weights, then gated by calibration, agreement and data quality.
Point-in-Time Intraday Timing
- availability: INSUFFICIENT
- readiness: —
- session: 2026-10-28
- activity: NORMAL
- RVOL-T: 1.04
- deviation: 0.71pp
- Current intraday quality 33.3 is below 60
source: Yahoo Finance observed 5-minute barsproxy / heuristicas of 2026-10-28 09:35 UTC
Quality-, freshness- and sample-gated timing readiness. Volume, activity and deviation are non-directional and never change BUY into AVOID.
DQS contribution
daily 35.0 · models 25.0 · intraday 14.0 · settled 18.0
- Intraday diagnostics report 1 quality issues
- 2 intraday sessions are incomplete
Why Not?
- Model dispersion is above the agreement gate
Catalysts
Yahoo path features (n=90) · asOf=2026-10-28 · model=Ensemble (6 models) · p(up)=0.38 · regime=bounce-in-downtrend · vol=extreme · fit=5.0 · not held · sector=Industrials · evidence=no verified research evidence
Invalidation
Invalidate if total market risk > 95.0, drawdown extends beyond 43.6%, or 5d return worsens by >3pp without 20d repair. Liquidity score > 25.0 also voids size-up.
Key Assumptions
Rule thesis over Yahoo closes (sample 90). Mean-revert proxy 26.4%. Intraday timing INSUFFICIENT; activity is non-directional. Verified evidence count 0; unverified imports are excluded. No live LLM; committee text is numeric templates. XK030/sharia screens are membership-only — not a fundamental audit.
Exit Conditions
Wait for clearer 5d/20d alignment. No new risk until confidence and fit both improve.
Paper Position
Replay Closure
Decision Evidence Pack
No verified point-in-time research evidence was attached to this decision.
AI Committee
GROWTH MANAGER
27.0Growth case needs stronger directional odds.
p(up)=0.38 from Ensemble (6 models) · Conglomerate.
MACRO MANAGER
16.9Intermediate trend pressure argues patience.
20d regime -16.6% with vol 72.3% · Industrials. No verified financial/news/disclosure evidence.
TECHNICAL MANAGER
55.2Momentum tape supports a long bias (bounce-in-downtrend).
5d 9.8% / 20d -16.6%; mean-revert 26.4%. Intraday timing INSUFFICIENT; no eligible observed 5-minute context.
RISK MANAGER
10.0Risk budget strained — size down or avoid.
Total 85.0 · volR 100.0 · ddR 100.0 · ann.vol 72.3%.
SENTIMENT MANAGER
55.0Conviction thin — crowd confirmation missing.
Confidence 55.0; decision NO_ACTION. No verified financial/news/disclosure evidence.
CIO MANAGER
38.8Aggregate call: NO_ACTION.
Opp 28.2 · fit 5.0 · risk 85.0 · not held.