BIST · TRY
MAVI — Mavi Giyim
Consumer Discretionary · Apparel · TR
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Tek hisse için fiyat, risk, adaptive challenger ve nihai Decision Card.
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Grafikler gerekçeyi açıklar. Nihai aksiyon Decision Card’daki AL/SAT/TUT/BEKLE’dir.
Hangi motora veri sağlar?
Predictability · Regime · Risk · Signal Engine
Decision Card
BIST:MAVI · Mavi Giyim
- Güven
- 70
- Optimal ufuk
- 1g
- Predictability
- 57
- Opportunity
- 46
- Beklenen getiri
- -0.0%
- Beklenen downside
- -1.3%
- Rejim
- BEAR:HIGH_VOLATILITY
- Regime güven
- 48
- Risk
- ORTA
- Hesap
- 2026-10-28 09:35
- Veri aralığı
- 2021-10-28 → 2026-10-28
- Tazelik
- 2g önce
- Decision engine
- decision-v1
- Strateji
- Ensemble (6 models)
- Model
- ensemble-heuristic-v1
- Özellik / veri
- adaptive-factor-v1 · yahoo:daily
- EMA OOS
- 36 · CROSS_BELOW · n=34
MAVI — BEKLE Optimal horizon: 1 gün Predictability: %57 Opportunity Score: 46 Beklenen net hareket: -0.0% Regime: BEAR:HIGH_VOLATILITY · güven %48 Opportunity sürücüleri: Beklenen net getiri, Predictability, Karar opportunity. Sınıf: Güvenilmez. Ne operasyonel BUY ne production adaptive BUY mevcut. Opportunity 46 < 62; maliyet sonrası edge yetersiz. Yeterli istatistiksel avantaj yok; BEKLE bilinçli bir karardır. EMA9, EMA36'yı aşağı kesti (bearish crossover). BIST'te short değil; çıkış/BEKLE adayı. Bu sinyal bu seride 34 kez oluştu (filtrelenmiş örnek: 34). 10 bar sonra win rate 44%, medyan getiri -2.7%. Reliability 45 / OOS 36. Karar motoru OOS'a daha çok ağırlık verir. OOS'ta BASE'den sağlam duran filtre: SLOPE. In-sample getiri ile seçilmedi. EMA tek başına AL üretmez.
BEKLE, edge oluşana kadar geçerlidir. Predictability ≥ 80 tek başına AL üretmez.
Opportunity bileşenleri
- Predictability57 · w16
- Beklenen net getiri50 · w20
- Karar opportunity41 · w15
- Risk-ayarlı getiri25 · w13
- Regime confidence48 · w11
- Maliyet sonrası dayanıklılık— · w9
- Örnek yeterliliği60 · w8
- EMA crossover (OOS)— · w8
EMA Crossover
- EMA9
- 34.79
- EMA36
- 36.38
- Son crossover
- CROSS BELOW · 96 bar
- Reliability
- 45 / OOS 36
- Win rate
- 44%
- Medyan 10-bar
- -2.7%
- Örnek
- 34
- Profit factor
- 0.74
- Rejim
- STRONG_BULL · 75%
- MFE / MAE
- 6.9% / -5.6%
Neden? · MAVI
- EMA9, EMA36'yı aşağı kesti (bearish crossover). BIST'te short değil; çıkış/BEKLE adayı.
- Bu sinyal bu seride 34 kez oluştu (filtrelenmiş örnek: 34).
- 10 bar sonra win rate 44%, medyan getiri -2.7%.
- Reliability 45 / OOS 36. Karar motoru OOS'a daha çok ağırlık verir.
- OOS'ta BASE'den sağlam duran filtre: SLOPE. In-sample getiri ile seçilmedi.
- EMA tek başına AL üretmez.
Whipsaw filtreleri (OOS)
- BASEOOS 31 · n=35
- ADX20OOS 35 · n=16
- EMA200OOS 23 · n=16
- VOLUMEOOS 46 · n=21
- RSI50OOS 31 · n=35
- HTF_TRENDOOS 22 · n=13
- SLOPE · seçiliOOS 36 · n=34
- SEPARATIONOOS 11 · n=8
- ATROOS 32 · n=32
En sağlam yakın çift EMA5/20 (robustness 65). En yüksek in-sample getiri EMA5/20 — bu yüzden seçilmedi.
MAVI 1d EMA9/36 genel win rate 44%; rejim kırılımı kartın üstünde. Yatay / düşük örnek rejimler BEKLE’ye iter.
Operator Actions
Price
Observed daily OHLCV bars. Yahoo is an unofficial free feed and may be delayed or incomplete.
Yahoo Features
- sample: 120 closes
- ret5: 7.01%
- ret20: 14.6%
- mean-revert gap: -7.59%
- ann. vol: 26%
Predictability
57
Volatility
93
Liquidity
100
ret5, ret20, mean-reversion gap and annualized realized volatility; profile scores are market-risk heuristics.
Intraday Pattern · Open = 100
Latest session
33.62 · -1.12%
Same time · previous
-0.7%
5D / 20D median
-0.16% / 0.06%
RVOL-T
2.82×
Time Activity Score
91 / 100
HIGH
- session: 2026-10-28
- same weekday: -0.79%
- deviation: -1.18 pp
- 5D mean: -0.21% · n=5
- 20D mean: 0.1% · n=20
- volume ratio: 2.82×
- volatility ratio: 1.37×
- complete history: 47
- same-weekday n: 7
- excluded incomplete: 2
Sync quality & outliers
- invalid bars: 0
- duplicate slots: 0
- price outliers: 0
- volume outliers: 0
- average quality: 77.4
- sync duration: 299 ms
Each session is normalized to open=100. Median is primary and dotted mean is auxiliary; incomplete/price-outlier sessions are excluded. RVOL-T compares cumulative volume with prior 20 complete sessions. Activity is not a direction forecast.
Market Risk
- total: 69.9
- volatility: 92.7
- drawdown: 62.8
- liquidity: 0
- sector: 93.2
- portfolio: 95
Realized volatility, peak-to-trough drawdown and volume-liquidity heuristics. Sector risk is a profile hint.
Latest Prediction
- model: Momentum
- p(up): 0.33
- E[r]: -0.038
- risk: 0.237
- conf: 0.735
- outcomes: Open
Model-name-specific feature weights; not trained XGBoost/LSTM/Transformer inference. Thin history may use deterministic fallback.
Latest Decision
quality 51.1 · risk 69.9 · fit 5
- consensus p(up): 0.354
- agreement: 71.2
- dispersion: 0.072
- calibrated conf: 0.705
- risk of wrong: 0.295
- data quality: 93.2
- 1d p10–p90: -0.013 → 0.012
- 5d p10–p90: 0.002 → 0.026
Bull: MAVI · (Mavi Giyim) · Consumer Discretionary · Apparel: defensive bounce case only — 5d -4.4% / 20d -9.0%. Need reclaim of short-term structure before sizing. Lead model Ensemble (6 models) assigns p(up)=0.35; portfolio fit 5.0 with position not held.
Bear: MAVI: elevated vol (37.1%) and max drawdown 18.8% compress edge — false breakouts likely. Risk stack vol=92.7 · dd=62.8 · liq=0.0 · sector=93.2 → total 69.9.
Yahoo path features (n=90) · asOf=2026-10-28 · model=Ensemble (6 models) · p(up)=0.35 · regime=strong-down · vol=elevated · fit=5.0 · not held · sector=Consumer Discretionary · evidence=no verified research evidence
Invalidation: Invalidate if total market risk > 79.9, drawdown extends beyond 23.8%, or 5d return worsens by >3pp without 20d repair. Liquidity score > 25.0 also voids size-up.
Exit: Stay on watch until p(up)≥0.58 and opportunity clears risk gates without vol spike. Re-check after next Yahoo settle (1d/3d/5d).
StockModel-weighted same-as-of ensemble with calibration, agreement and data-quality gates. Empirical intervals are p10–p90 settled returns. Thesis and committee are templates, not live LLM agents.
Yahoo Market Activity Proxy
- flow: -2.75
- accum: 36.2
- distrib: 63.8
Market-activity proxy from volume × price × momentum. Not BIST member, BofA/MLB, custody or order-flow data.
Catalyst Timeline
- 2026-04-30 · FINANCIALunverified / excludedimportance 65
MAVI TTM financial results
Yahoo quote-summary TTM proxy; not an official KAP financial statement
Earnings quality and balance-sheet trajectory · Yahoo Finance Fundamentals Proxy
Only explicitly verified catalyst records are attached to new theses and committee reasoning; unverified imports remain visible but excluded.
Recent Predictions
- Momentump(up) 0.33 · Open
- News Modelp(up) 0.47 · Open
- LSTMp(up) 0.29 · Open
- Macro Modelp(up) 0.29 · Open
- Transformerp(up) 0.29 · Open
Scenario Sensitivities
- Risk-Off Shockp 0.73 · eff -19.4%
- Soft Landingp 0.34 · eff -8.1%
- Inflation Reaccelerationp 0.54 · eff -7.6%
Heuristic scenario sensitivity; not a macro world model or counterfactual simulation.