BIST · 2026-10-28

MAVI — WATCH

Mavi Giyim · operator [email protected]

Bu sayfa ne işe yarıyor?

Tek kararın tez, kanıt, replay ve settlement kaydı.

Hangi soruya cevap veriyor?

Bu karar hangi girdilerle alındı ve sonra ne oldu?

Kararda nasıl kullanılmalı?

Öğrenme için kullanın. Eski karar yeni sinyal değildir.

Hangi motora veri sağlar?

Outcome review · Learning Engine · Signal history

WATCHquality 51.1risk 69.9Open stock intelligence

Scores

prediction: 35.4
confidence: 70.5
opportunity: 40.7
timing: 73.8
portfolio fit: 5.0

Bull Case

MAVI · (Mavi Giyim) · Consumer Discretionary · Apparel: defensive bounce case only — 5d -4.4% / 20d -9.0%. Need reclaim of short-term structure before sizing. Lead model Ensemble (6 models) assigns p(up)=0.35; portfolio fit 5.0 with position not held.

Bear Case

MAVI: elevated vol (37.1%) and max drawdown 18.8% compress edge — false breakouts likely. Risk stack vol=92.7 · dd=62.8 · liq=0.0 · sector=93.2 → total 69.9.

Ensemble & Uncertainty

consensus p(up): 0.354
agreement: 71.2
dispersion: 0.072
calibrated conf: 0.705
risk of wrong: 0.295
data quality: 93.2
1d p10–p90: -0.013 → 0.012
5d p10–p90: 0.002 → 0.025

source: QBMosaic weighted ensembleproxy / heuristicas of 2026-10-28 09:35 UTC

Same-as-of model votes weighted by learned StockModel weights, then gated by calibration, agreement and data quality.

Point-in-Time Intraday Timing

availability: INSUFFICIENT
readiness: —
session: 2026-10-28
activity: HIGH
RVOL-T: 2.82
deviation: -1.18pp

Current intraday quality 32.3 is below 60

source: Yahoo Finance observed 5-minute barsproxy / heuristicas of 2026-10-28 09:35 UTC

Quality-, freshness- and sample-gated timing readiness. Volume, activity and deviation are non-directional and never change BUY into AVOID.

DQS contribution

daily 35.0 · models 25.0 · intraday 15.2 · settled 18.0

1 intraday sessions are incomplete

Why Not?

No hard NO_ACTION gate fired.

Catalysts

Yahoo path features (n=90) · asOf=2026-10-28 · model=Ensemble (6 models) · p(up)=0.35 · regime=strong-down · vol=elevated · fit=5.0 · not held · sector=Consumer Discretionary · evidence=no verified research evidence

Invalidation

Invalidate if total market risk > 79.9, drawdown extends beyond 23.8%, or 5d return worsens by >3pp without 20d repair. Liquidity score > 25.0 also voids size-up.

Key Assumptions

Rule thesis over Yahoo closes (sample 90). Mean-revert proxy 4.6%. Intraday timing INSUFFICIENT; activity is non-directional. Verified evidence count 0; unverified imports are excluded. No live LLM; committee text is numeric templates. XK030/sharia screens are membership-only — not a fundamental audit.

Exit Conditions

Stay on watch until p(up)≥0.58 and opportunity clears risk gates without vol spike. Re-check after next Yahoo settle (1d/3d/5d).

Paper Position

Replay Closure

snapshot 2026-10-28 · outcomes 0/2 · journals 0

Open replay journal and lab

Decision Evidence Pack

No verified point-in-time research evidence was attached to this decision.

AI Committee

VALUE MANAGER

46.3

No clear value dislocation from price path alone.

Mean-revert gap 4.6%.

GROWTH MANAGER

29.8

Growth case needs stronger directional odds.

p(up)=0.35 from Ensemble (6 models) · Apparel.

MACRO MANAGER

31.6

Intermediate trend pressure argues patience.

20d regime -9.0% with vol 37.1% · Consumer Discretionary. No verified financial/news/disclosure evidence.

TECHNICAL MANAGER

41.1

Tape soft (strong-down) — wait for reclaim.

5d -4.4% / 20d -9.0%; mean-revert 4.6%. Intraday timing INSUFFICIENT; no eligible observed 5-minute context.

RISK MANAGER

25.1

Risk inside tolerance for selective exposure.

Total 69.9 · volR 92.7 · ddR 62.8 · ann.vol 37.1%.

SENTIMENT MANAGER

70.5

Signal confidence supportive.

Confidence 70.5; decision WATCH. No verified financial/news/disclosure evidence.

CIO MANAGER

51.1

Aggregate call: WATCH.

Opp 40.7 · fit 5.0 · risk 69.9 · not held.