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QBMosaic

Engines ReadySalt-Okunur Önizleme
← Markets

BIST · TRY

PASEU — Pasifik Eurasia Lojistik

Industrials · Logistics · TR

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Tek hisse için fiyat, risk, adaptive challenger ve nihai Decision Card.

Hangi soruya cevap veriyor?

Bu hissede şu anda rasyonel işlem nedir ve neden?

Kararda nasıl kullanılmalı?

Grafikler gerekçeyi açıklar. Nihai aksiyon Decision Card’daki AL/SAT/TUT/BEKLE’dir.

Hangi motora veri sağlar?

Predictability · Regime · Risk · Signal Engine

Decision Card

BEKLEGüvenilmez

BIST:PASEU · Pasifik Eurasia Lojistik

Hisse zekâsı →
Güven
73
Optimal ufuk
1g
Predictability
47
Opportunity
51
Beklenen getiri
+6.6%
Beklenen downside
+3.3%
Rejim
BEAR:HIGH_VOLATILITY
Regime güven
44
Risk
YÜKSEK
Hesap
2026-10-28 09:35
Veri aralığı
2024-03-21 → 2026-10-28
Tazelik
2g önce
Decision engine
decision-v1
Strateji
Ensemble (6 models)
Model
ensemble-heuristic-v1
Özellik / veri
adaptive-factor-v1 · yahoo:daily
EMA OOS
35 · CROSS_BELOW · n=11

PASEU — BEKLE Optimal horizon: 1 gün Predictability: %47 Opportunity Score: 51 Beklenen net hareket: +6.6% Regime: BEAR:HIGH_VOLATILITY · güven %44 Opportunity sürücüleri: Beklenen net getiri, Predictability, Risk-ayarlı getiri. Sınıf: Güvenilmez. Predictability 47 < 55; istatistiksel avantaj yok. EMA9, EMA36'yı aşağı kesti (bearish crossover). BIST'te short değil; çıkış/BEKLE adayı. Bu sinyal bu seride 11 kez oluştu (filtrelenmiş örnek: 11). 10 bar sonra win rate 45%, medyan getiri -2.4%. Reliability 51 / OOS 35. Karar motoru OOS'a daha çok ağırlık verir. EMA tek başına AL üretmez.

BEKLE, edge oluşana kadar geçerlidir. Predictability ≥ 80 tek başına AL üretmez.

Opportunity bileşenleri

  • Predictability47 · w16
  • Beklenen net getiri76 · w20
  • Karar opportunity31 · w15
  • Risk-ayarlı getiri40 · w13
  • Regime confidence44 · w11
  • Maliyet sonrası dayanıklılık— · w9
  • Örnek yeterliliği60 · w8
  • EMA crossover (OOS)— · w8

EMA Crossover

BEARISH1d EMA9/36filtre BASE
EMA9
30.63
EMA36
56.95
Son crossover
CROSS BELOW · 35 bar
Reliability
51 / OOS 35
Win rate
45%
Medyan 10-bar
-2.4%
Örnek
11
Profit factor
1.97
Rejim
HIGH_VOLATILITY · 100%
MFE / MAE
18.7% / -9.6%

Neden? · PASEU

  • EMA9, EMA36'yı aşağı kesti (bearish crossover). BIST'te short değil; çıkış/BEKLE adayı.
  • Bu sinyal bu seride 11 kez oluştu (filtrelenmiş örnek: 11).
  • 10 bar sonra win rate 45%, medyan getiri -2.4%.
  • Reliability 51 / OOS 35. Karar motoru OOS'a daha çok ağırlık verir.
  • EMA tek başına AL üretmez.

Whipsaw filtreleri (OOS)

  • BASE · seçiliOOS 35 · n=11
  • ADX20OOS 35 · n=5
  • EMA200OOS 35 · n=7
  • VOLUMEOOS 10 · n=3
  • RSI50OOS 35 · n=11
  • HTF_TRENDOOS 35 · n=3
  • SLOPEOOS 35 · n=11
  • SEPARATIONOOS 35 · n=7
  • ATROOS 35 · n=9

En sağlam yakın çift EMA5/20 (robustness 68). En yüksek in-sample getiri EMA20/50 — bu yüzden seçilmedi.

PASEU 1d EMA9/36 genel win rate 45%; rejim kırılımı kartın üstünde. Yatay / düşük örnek rejimler BEKLE’ye iter.

last 215d 0.5%20d 6%risk 85AVOID120 bars

Operator Actions

Price

source: Yahoo Financeobserved dataas of 2024-09-18 06:30 UTCn=120

Observed daily OHLCV bars. Yahoo is an unofficial free feed and may be delayed or incomplete.

Yahoo Features

  • sample: 120 closes
  • ret5: 0.48%
  • ret20: 5.99%
  • mean-revert gap: -5.52%
  • ann. vol: 46.6%

Predictability

47

Volatility

100

Liquidity

100

source: Yahoo Finance daily OHLCVproxy / heuristicas of 2024-09-18 06:30 UTCn=120

ret5, ret20, mean-reversion gap and annualized realized volatility; profile scores are market-risk heuristics.

Intraday Pattern · Open = 100

Latest session

25.2 · +0%

Same time · previous

+0.41%

5D / 20D median

0.41% / 1.54%

RVOL-T

0.1×

Time Activity Score

0 / 100

LOW

  • session: 2026-10-28
  • same weekday: 0.22%
  • deviation: -1.54 pp
  • 5D mean: 0.59% · n=5
  • 20D mean: 0.79% · n=20
  • volume ratio: 0.1×
  • volatility ratio: 0×
  • complete history: 46
  • same-weekday n: 6
  • excluded incomplete: 3

Sync quality & outliers

  • invalid bars: 0
  • duplicate slots: 0
  • price outliers: 0
  • volume outliers: 0
  • average quality: 76.7
  • sync duration: 288 ms
source: Yahoo Finance 5mobserved dataas of 2026-10-28 09:35 UTCn=46

Each session is normalized to open=100. Median is primary and dotted mean is auxiliary; incomplete/price-outlier sessions are excluded. RVOL-T compares cumulative volume with prior 20 complete sessions. Activity is not a direction forecast.

Market Risk

  • total: 85
  • volatility: 100
  • drawdown: 100
  • liquidity: 0
  • sector: 100
  • portfolio: 95
source: Yahoo Finance daily OHLCVproxy / heuristicas of 2026-10-29 00:00 UTCn=120

Realized volatility, peak-to-trough drawdown and volume-liquidity heuristics. Sector risk is a profile hint.

Latest Prediction

  • model: Momentum
  • p(up): 0.208
  • E[r]: -0.067
  • risk: 0.55
  • conf: 0.81
  • outcomes: Open
source: QBMosaic rule engine + Yahooproxy / heuristicas of 2026-10-28 06:30 UTCn=120

Model-name-specific feature weights; not trained XGBoost/LSTM/Transformer inference. Thin history may use deterministic fallback.

Latest Decision

AVOID · open detail

quality 45.1 · risk 85 · fit 5

  • consensus p(up): 0.274
  • agreement: 55.6
  • dispersion: 0.111
  • calibrated conf: 0.731
  • risk of wrong: 0.269
  • data quality: 91.5
  • 1d p10–p90: 0.033 → 0.098
  • 5d p10–p90: 0.288 → 0.342

Bull: PASEU · (Pasifik Eurasia Lojistik) · Industrials · Logistics: defensive bounce case only — 5d -10.1% / 20d -11.0%. Need reclaim of short-term structure before sizing. Lead model Ensemble (6 models) assigns p(up)=0.27; portfolio fit 5.0 with position not held.

Bear: PASEU: extreme vol (124.4%) and max drawdown 90.6% compress edge — false breakouts likely. Risk stack vol=100.0 · dd=100.0 · liq=0.0 · sector=100.0 → total 85.0.

Yahoo path features (n=90) · asOf=2026-10-28 · model=Ensemble (6 models) · p(up)=0.27 · regime=strong-down · vol=extreme · fit=5.0 · not held · sector=Industrials · evidence=no verified research evidence

Invalidation: Invalidate if total market risk > 95.0, drawdown extends beyond 95.6%, or 5d return worsens by >3pp without 20d repair. Liquidity score > 25.0 also voids size-up.

Exit: Remain flat. Re-open only after total risk < 60 and regime leaves strong-down/mixed with rising p(up). Exit any residual on further DD extension.

source: QBMosaic decision rulesproxy / heuristicas of 2026-10-28 09:35 UTCn=120

StockModel-weighted same-as-of ensemble with calibration, agreement and data-quality gates. Empirical intervals are p10–p90 settled returns. Thesis and committee are templates, not live LLM agents.

Yahoo Market Activity Proxy

  • flow: -4.01
  • accum: 29.9
  • distrib: 70.1
source: Yahoo Finance daily OHLCVproxy / heuristicas of 2026-10-29 00:00 UTC

Market-activity proxy from volume × price × momentum. Not BIST member, BofA/MLB, custody or order-flow data.

Catalyst Timeline

  1. 2026-06-30 · FINANCIALunverified / excludedimportance 65

    PASEU TTM financial results

    Yahoo quote-summary TTM proxy; not an official KAP financial statement

    Earnings quality and balance-sheet trajectory · Yahoo Finance Fundamentals Proxy

source: Manual EOD / provider evidence adaptersobserved dataas of 2026-06-30 00:00 UTCn=1

Only explicitly verified catalyst records are attached to new theses and committee reasoning; unverified imports remain visible but excluded.

Recent Predictions

  • Momentump(up) 0.21 · Open
  • News Modelp(up) 0.45 · Open
  • LSTMp(up) 0.18 · Open
  • Macro Modelp(up) 0.18 · Open
  • Transformerp(up) 0.18 · Open

Scenario Sensitivities

  • Risk-Off Shockp 0.95 · eff -20%
  • Inflation Reaccelerationp 0.9 · eff -15%
  • Soft Landingp 0.25 · eff -12%
source: Yahoo Finance daily OHLCVproxy / heuristicas of 2024-09-18 06:30 UTCn=3

Heuristic scenario sensitivity; not a macro world model or counterfactual simulation.