BIST · TRY
KTLEV — Katılımevim
Financials · Participation Finance · TR
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Tek hisse için fiyat, risk, adaptive challenger ve nihai Decision Card.
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Grafikler gerekçeyi açıklar. Nihai aksiyon Decision Card’daki AL/SAT/TUT/BEKLE’dir.
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Predictability · Regime · Risk · Signal Engine
Decision Card
BIST:KTLEV · Katılımevim
- Güven
- 85
- Optimal ufuk
- 1g
- Predictability
- 47
- Opportunity
- 50
- Beklenen getiri
- +5.6%
- Beklenen downside
- +1.7%
- Rejim
- BEAR:HIGH_VOLATILITY
- Regime güven
- 41
- Risk
- YÜKSEK
- Hesap
- 2026-10-28 09:35
- Veri aralığı
- 2024-03-21 → 2026-10-28
- Tazelik
- 2g önce
- Decision engine
- decision-v1
- Strateji
- Ensemble (6 models)
- Model
- ensemble-heuristic-v1
- Özellik / veri
- adaptive-factor-v1 · yahoo:daily
- EMA OOS
- 22 · CROSS_BELOW · n=12
KTLEV — BEKLE Optimal horizon: 1 gün Predictability: %47 Opportunity Score: 50 Beklenen net hareket: +5.6% Regime: BEAR:HIGH_VOLATILITY · güven %41 Opportunity sürücüleri: Beklenen net getiri, Predictability, Karar opportunity. Sınıf: Güvenilmez. Predictability 47 < 55; istatistiksel avantaj yok. EMA9, EMA36'yı aşağı kesti (bearish crossover). BIST'te short değil; çıkış/BEKLE adayı. Bu sinyal bu seride 12 kez oluştu (filtrelenmiş örnek: 12). 10 bar sonra win rate 17%, medyan getiri -4.8%. Reliability 24 / OOS 22. Karar motoru OOS'a daha çok ağırlık verir. EMA tek başına AL üretmez.
BEKLE, edge oluşana kadar geçerlidir. Predictability ≥ 80 tek başına AL üretmez.
Opportunity bileşenleri
- Predictability47 · w16
- Beklenen net getiri72 · w20
- Karar opportunity34 · w15
- Risk-ayarlı getiri37 · w13
- Regime confidence41 · w11
- Maliyet sonrası dayanıklılık— · w9
- Örnek yeterliliği60 · w8
- EMA crossover (OOS)— · w8
EMA Crossover
- EMA9
- 4.93
- EMA36
- 15.00
- Son crossover
- CROSS BELOW · 37 bar
- Reliability
- 24 / OOS 22
- Win rate
- 17%
- Medyan 10-bar
- -4.8%
- Örnek
- 12
- Profit factor
- 0.50
- Rejim
- SIDEWAYS · 33%
- MFE / MAE
- 11.1% / -9.4%
Neden? · KTLEV
- EMA9, EMA36'yı aşağı kesti (bearish crossover). BIST'te short değil; çıkış/BEKLE adayı.
- Bu sinyal bu seride 12 kez oluştu (filtrelenmiş örnek: 12).
- 10 bar sonra win rate 17%, medyan getiri -4.8%.
- Reliability 24 / OOS 22. Karar motoru OOS'a daha çok ağırlık verir.
- EMA tek başına AL üretmez.
Whipsaw filtreleri (OOS)
- BASE · seçiliOOS 22 · n=12
- ADX20OOS 23 · n=9
- EMA200OOS 35 · n=3
- VOLUMEOOS 9 · n=3
- RSI50OOS 22 · n=12
- HTF_TRENDOOS 35 · n=4
- SLOPEOOS 22 · n=12
- SEPARATIONOOS 35 · n=4
- ATROOS 35 · n=5
En sağlam yakın çift EMA5/20 (robustness 63). En yüksek in-sample getiri EMA50/200 — bu yüzden seçilmedi.
KTLEV 1d EMA9/36 genel win rate 17%; rejim kırılımı kartın üstünde. Yatay / düşük örnek rejimler BEKLE’ye iter.
Operator Actions
Price
Observed daily OHLCV bars. Yahoo is an unofficial free feed and may be delayed or incomplete.
Yahoo Features
- sample: 120 closes
- ret5: 12.57%
- ret20: 9.21%
- mean-revert gap: 3.36%
- ann. vol: 57%
Predictability
47
Volatility
100
Liquidity
100
ret5, ret20, mean-reversion gap and annualized realized volatility; profile scores are market-risk heuristics.
Intraday Pattern · Open = 100
Latest session
4.09 · -2.39%
Same time · previous
+7.43%
5D / 20D median
0.65% / -0.01%
RVOL-T
3.65×
Time Activity Score
63 / 100
NORMAL
- session: 2026-10-28
- same weekday: -1.41%
- deviation: -2.38 pp
- 5D mean: 1.58% · n=5
- 20D mean: 0.46% · n=20
- volume ratio: 3.65×
- volatility ratio: 0.74×
- complete history: 46
- same-weekday n: 7
- excluded incomplete: 3
Sync quality & outliers
- invalid bars: 0
- duplicate slots: 0
- price outliers: 0
- volume outliers: 0
- average quality: 76.7
- sync duration: 296 ms
Each session is normalized to open=100. Median is primary and dotted mean is auxiliary; incomplete/price-outlier sessions are excluded. RVOL-T compares cumulative volume with prior 20 complete sessions. Activity is not a direction forecast.
Market Risk
- total: 85
- volatility: 100
- drawdown: 100
- liquidity: 0
- sector: 100
- portfolio: 95
Realized volatility, peak-to-trough drawdown and volume-liquidity heuristics. Sector risk is a profile hint.
Latest Prediction
- model: Momentum
- p(up): 0.18
- E[r]: -0.1
- risk: 0.55
- conf: 0.92
- outcomes: Open
Model-name-specific feature weights; not trained XGBoost/LSTM/Transformer inference. Thin history may use deterministic fallback.
Latest Decision
quality 49.4 · risk 85 · fit 5
- consensus p(up): 0.218
- agreement: 69.9
- dispersion: 0.075
- calibrated conf: 0.85
- risk of wrong: 0.15
- data quality: 91.3
- 1d p10–p90: 0.017 → 0.094
- 5d p10–p90: 0.069 → 0.106
Bull: KTLEV · (Katılımevim) · Financials · Participation Finance: defensive bounce case only — 5d -17.2% / 20d -57.4%. Need reclaim of short-term structure before sizing. Lead model Ensemble (6 models) assigns p(up)=0.22; portfolio fit 5.0 with position not held.
Bear: KTLEV: extreme vol (104.5%) and max drawdown 94.1% compress edge — false breakouts likely. Risk stack vol=100.0 · dd=100.0 · liq=0.0 · sector=100.0 → total 85.0.
Yahoo path features (n=90) · asOf=2026-10-28 · model=Ensemble (6 models) · p(up)=0.22 · regime=strong-down · vol=extreme · fit=5.0 · not held · sector=Financials · evidence=no verified research evidence
Invalidation: Invalidate if total market risk > 95.0, drawdown extends beyond 99.1%, or 5d return worsens by >3pp without 20d repair. Liquidity score > 25.0 also voids size-up.
Exit: Remain flat. Re-open only after total risk < 60 and regime leaves strong-down/mixed with rising p(up). Exit any residual on further DD extension.
StockModel-weighted same-as-of ensemble with calibration, agreement and data-quality gates. Empirical intervals are p10–p90 settled returns. Thesis and committee are templates, not live LLM agents.
Yahoo Market Activity Proxy
- flow: -4.01
- accum: 29.9
- distrib: 70.1
Market-activity proxy from volume × price × momentum. Not BIST member, BofA/MLB, custody or order-flow data.
Catalyst Timeline
- 2026-06-30 · FINANCIALunverified / excludedimportance 65
KTLEV TTM financial results
Yahoo quote-summary TTM proxy; not an official KAP financial statement
Earnings quality and balance-sheet trajectory · Yahoo Finance Fundamentals Proxy
Only explicitly verified catalyst records are attached to new theses and committee reasoning; unverified imports remain visible but excluded.
Recent Predictions
- Momentump(up) 0.18 · Open
- News Modelp(up) 0.37 · Open
- LSTMp(up) 0.18 · Open
- Macro Modelp(up) 0.18 · Open
- Transformerp(up) 0.18 · Open
Scenario Sensitivities
- Risk-Off Shockp 0.95 · eff -20%
- Inflation Reaccelerationp 0.9 · eff -15%
- Soft Landingp 0.25 · eff -12%
Heuristic scenario sensitivity; not a macro world model or counterfactual simulation.