BIST · TRY
OBAMS — Oba Makarnacılık
Consumer Staples · Food · TR
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Tek hisse için fiyat, risk, adaptive challenger ve nihai Decision Card.
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Grafikler gerekçeyi açıklar. Nihai aksiyon Decision Card’daki AL/SAT/TUT/BEKLE’dir.
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Predictability · Regime · Risk · Signal Engine
Decision Card
BIST:OBAMS · Oba Makarnacılık
- Güven
- 56
- Optimal ufuk
- 1g
- Predictability
- 47
- Opportunity
- 43
- Beklenen getiri
- +0.2%
- Beklenen downside
- -4.2%
- Rejim
- BEAR:HIGH_VOLATILITY
- Regime güven
- 50
- Risk
- YÜKSEK
- Hesap
- 2026-10-28 09:35
- Veri aralığı
- 2024-03-01 → 2026-10-28
- Tazelik
- 2g önce
- Decision engine
- decision-v1
- Strateji
- Ensemble (6 models)
- Model
- ensemble-heuristic-v1
- Özellik / veri
- adaptive-factor-v1 · yahoo:daily
- EMA OOS
- 36 · CROSS_BELOW · n=22
OBAMS — BEKLE Optimal horizon: 1 gün Predictability: %47 Opportunity Score: 43 Beklenen net hareket: +0.2% Regime: BEAR:HIGH_VOLATILITY · güven %50 Opportunity sürücüleri: Beklenen net getiri, Predictability, Regime confidence. Sınıf: Güvenilmez. Operasyonel motor NO_ACTION üretti; işlem açılmıyor. EMA9, EMA36'yı aşağı kesti (bearish crossover). BIST'te short değil; çıkış/BEKLE adayı. Bu sinyal bu seride 22 kez oluştu (filtrelenmiş örnek: 22). 10 bar sonra win rate 41%, medyan getiri -3.6%. Reliability 40 / OOS 36. Karar motoru OOS'a daha çok ağırlık verir. EMA tek başına AL üretmez.
BEKLE, edge oluşana kadar geçerlidir. Predictability ≥ 80 tek başına AL üretmez.
Opportunity bileşenleri
- Predictability47 · w16
- Beklenen net getiri51 · w20
- Karar opportunity31 · w15
- Risk-ayarlı getiri21 · w13
- Regime confidence50 · w11
- Maliyet sonrası dayanıklılık— · w9
- Örnek yeterliliği60 · w8
- EMA crossover (OOS)— · w8
EMA Crossover
- EMA9
- 3.72
- EMA36
- 4.28
- Son crossover
- CROSS BELOW · 38 bar
- Reliability
- 40 / OOS 36
- Win rate
- 41%
- Medyan 10-bar
- -3.6%
- Örnek
- 22
- Profit factor
- 0.80
- Rejim
- LOW_VOLATILITY · 100%
- MFE / MAE
- 8.0% / -7.1%
Neden? · OBAMS
- EMA9, EMA36'yı aşağı kesti (bearish crossover). BIST'te short değil; çıkış/BEKLE adayı.
- Bu sinyal bu seride 22 kez oluştu (filtrelenmiş örnek: 22).
- 10 bar sonra win rate 41%, medyan getiri -3.6%.
- Reliability 40 / OOS 36. Karar motoru OOS'a daha çok ağırlık verir.
- EMA tek başına AL üretmez.
Whipsaw filtreleri (OOS)
- BASE · seçiliOOS 36 · n=22
- ADX20OOS 34 · n=12
- EMA200OOS 35 · n=13
- VOLUMEOOS 17 · n=14
- RSI50OOS 36 · n=22
- HTF_TRENDOOS 35 · n=6
- SLOPEOOS 30 · n=21
- SEPARATIONOOS 35 · n=13
- ATROOS 25 · n=13
En sağlam yakın çift EMA5/20 (robustness 68). En yüksek in-sample getiri EMA5/20 — bu yüzden seçilmedi.
OBAMS 1d EMA9/36 genel win rate 41%; rejim kırılımı kartın üstünde. Yatay / düşük örnek rejimler BEKLE’ye iter.
Operator Actions
Price
Observed daily OHLCV bars. Yahoo is an unofficial free feed and may be delayed or incomplete.
Yahoo Features
- sample: 120 closes
- ret5: -4.42%
- ret20: -7.25%
- mean-revert gap: 2.84%
- ann. vol: 52.2%
Predictability
47
Volatility
100
Liquidity
100
ret5, ret20, mean-reversion gap and annualized realized volatility; profile scores are market-risk heuristics.
Intraday Pattern · Open = 100
Latest session
3.79 · +6.46%
Same time · previous
+2.01%
5D / 20D median
1.44% / 0.1%
RVOL-T
0.91×
Time Activity Score
72 / 100
HIGH
- session: 2026-10-28
- same weekday: -0.9%
- deviation: 6.36 pp
- 5D mean: 0.57% · n=5
- 20D mean: 0.18% · n=20
- volume ratio: 0.91×
- volatility ratio: 1.51×
- complete history: 47
- same-weekday n: 7
- excluded incomplete: 2
Sync quality & outliers
- invalid bars: 0
- duplicate slots: 0
- price outliers: 0
- volume outliers: 0
- average quality: 77.4
- sync duration: 307 ms
Each session is normalized to open=100. Median is primary and dotted mean is auxiliary; incomplete/price-outlier sessions are excluded. RVOL-T compares cumulative volume with prior 20 complete sessions. Activity is not a direction forecast.
Market Risk
- total: 85
- volatility: 100
- drawdown: 100
- liquidity: 0
- sector: 100
- portfolio: 95
Realized volatility, peak-to-trough drawdown and volume-liquidity heuristics. Sector risk is a profile hint.
Latest Prediction
- model: Momentum
- p(up): 0.609
- E[r]: 0.012
- risk: 0.55
- conf: 0.703
- outcomes: Open
Model-name-specific feature weights; not trained XGBoost/LSTM/Transformer inference. Thin history may use deterministic fallback.
Latest Decision
quality 41.9 · risk 85 · fit 5
- consensus p(up): 0.408
- agreement: 42.5
- dispersion: 0.144
- calibrated conf: 0.559
- risk of wrong: 0.441
- data quality: 93.2
- 1d p10–p90: -0.042 → 0.046
- 5d p10–p90: 0.022 → 0.041
Why not?
- Model dispersion is above the agreement gate
Bull: OBAMS · (Oba Makarnacılık) · Consumer Staples · Food: bounce inside a soft 20d (-11.9%); treat strength as tactical unless 20d flips positive. Lead model Ensemble (6 models) assigns p(up)=0.41; portfolio fit 5.0 with position not held.
Bear: OBAMS: extreme vol (51.6%) and max drawdown 48.8% compress edge — false breakouts likely. Risk stack vol=100.0 · dd=100.0 · liq=0.0 · sector=100.0 → total 85.0.
Yahoo path features (n=90) · asOf=2026-10-28 · model=Ensemble (6 models) · p(up)=0.41 · regime=bounce-in-downtrend · vol=extreme · fit=5.0 · not held · sector=Consumer Staples · evidence=no verified research evidence
Invalidation: Invalidate if total market risk > 95.0, drawdown extends beyond 53.8%, or 5d return worsens by >3pp without 20d repair. Liquidity score > 25.0 also voids size-up.
Exit: Wait for clearer 5d/20d alignment. No new risk until confidence and fit both improve.
StockModel-weighted same-as-of ensemble with calibration, agreement and data-quality gates. Empirical intervals are p10–p90 settled returns. Thesis and committee are templates, not live LLM agents.
Yahoo Market Activity Proxy
- flow: -0.14
- accum: 49.3
- distrib: 50.7
Market-activity proxy from volume × price × momentum. Not BIST member, BofA/MLB, custody or order-flow data.
Catalyst Timeline
- 2026-03-31 · FINANCIALunverified / excludedimportance 65
OBAMS TTM financial results
Yahoo quote-summary TTM proxy; not an official KAP financial statement
Earnings quality and balance-sheet trajectory · Yahoo Finance Fundamentals Proxy
Only explicitly verified catalyst records are attached to new theses and committee reasoning; unverified imports remain visible but excluded.
Recent Predictions
- Momentump(up) 0.61 · Open
- News Modelp(up) 0.52 · Open
- LSTMp(up) 0.29 · Open
- Macro Modelp(up) 0.18 · Open
- Transformerp(up) 0.29 · Open
Scenario Sensitivities
- Risk-Off Shockp 0.95 · eff -20%
- Inflation Reaccelerationp 0.63 · eff -10.4%
- Soft Landingp 0.25 · eff -8.1%
Heuristic scenario sensitivity; not a macro world model or counterfactual simulation.