VALUE MANAGER
34.1No clear value dislocation from price path alone.
Mean-revert gap 19.8%.
BIST · 2026-10-28
OBAMS — NO_ACTION
Oba Makarnacılık · operator [email protected]
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Outcome review · Learning Engine · Signal history
Scores
- prediction: 40.8
- confidence: 55.9
- opportunity: 31.4
- timing: 58.4
- portfolio fit: 5.0
Bull Case
OBAMS · (Oba Makarnacılık) · Consumer Staples · Food: bounce inside a soft 20d (-11.9%); treat strength as tactical unless 20d flips positive. Lead model Ensemble (6 models) assigns p(up)=0.41; portfolio fit 5.0 with position not held.
Bear Case
OBAMS: extreme vol (51.6%) and max drawdown 48.8% compress edge — false breakouts likely. Risk stack vol=100.0 · dd=100.0 · liq=0.0 · sector=100.0 → total 85.0.
Ensemble & Uncertainty
- consensus p(up): 0.407
- agreement: 42.5
- dispersion: 0.144
- calibrated conf: 0.559
- risk of wrong: 0.441
- data quality: 93.2
- 1d p10–p90: -0.042 → 0.046
- 5d p10–p90: 0.022 → 0.041
source: QBMosaic weighted ensembleproxy / heuristicas of 2026-10-28 09:35 UTC
Same-as-of model votes weighted by learned StockModel weights, then gated by calibration, agreement and data quality.
Point-in-Time Intraday Timing
- availability: INSUFFICIENT
- readiness: —
- session: 2026-10-28
- activity: HIGH
- RVOL-T: 0.91
- deviation: 6.36pp
- Current intraday quality 32.3 is below 60
source: Yahoo Finance observed 5-minute barsproxy / heuristicas of 2026-10-28 09:35 UTC
Quality-, freshness- and sample-gated timing readiness. Volume, activity and deviation are non-directional and never change BUY into AVOID.
DQS contribution
daily 35.0 · models 25.0 · intraday 15.2 · settled 18.0
- 1 intraday sessions are incomplete
Why Not?
- Model dispersion is above the agreement gate
Catalysts
Yahoo path features (n=90) · asOf=2026-10-28 · model=Ensemble (6 models) · p(up)=0.41 · regime=bounce-in-downtrend · vol=extreme · fit=5.0 · not held · sector=Consumer Staples · evidence=no verified research evidence
Invalidation
Invalidate if total market risk > 95.0, drawdown extends beyond 53.8%, or 5d return worsens by >3pp without 20d repair. Liquidity score > 25.0 also voids size-up.
Key Assumptions
Rule thesis over Yahoo closes (sample 90). Mean-revert proxy 19.8%. Intraday timing INSUFFICIENT; activity is non-directional. Verified evidence count 0; unverified imports are excluded. No live LLM; committee text is numeric templates. XK030/sharia screens are membership-only — not a fundamental audit.
Exit Conditions
Wait for clearer 5d/20d alignment. No new risk until confidence and fit both improve.
Paper Position
Replay Closure
Decision Evidence Pack
No verified point-in-time research evidence was attached to this decision.
AI Committee
GROWTH MANAGER
33.0Growth case needs stronger directional odds.
p(up)=0.41 from Ensemble (6 models) · Food.
MACRO MANAGER
25.8Intermediate trend pressure argues patience.
20d regime -11.9% with vol 51.6% · Consumer Staples. No verified financial/news/disclosure evidence.
TECHNICAL MANAGER
54.8Momentum tape supports a long bias (bounce-in-downtrend).
5d 8.0% / 20d -11.9%; mean-revert 19.8%. Intraday timing INSUFFICIENT; no eligible observed 5-minute context.
RISK MANAGER
10.0Risk budget strained — size down or avoid.
Total 85.0 · volR 100.0 · ddR 100.0 · ann.vol 51.6%.
SENTIMENT MANAGER
55.9Conviction thin — crowd confirmation missing.
Confidence 55.9; decision NO_ACTION. No verified financial/news/disclosure evidence.
CIO MANAGER
41.9Aggregate call: NO_ACTION.
Opp 31.4 · fit 5.0 · risk 85.0 · not held.