VALUE MANAGER
47.6No clear value dislocation from price path alone.
Mean-revert gap 3.0%.
BIST · 2026-08-28
BSOKE — AVOID
Batısöke Çimento · operator [email protected]
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Outcome review · Learning Engine · Signal history
Scores
- prediction: 24.7
- confidence: 60.0
- opportunity: 28.1
- timing: 67.2
- portfolio fit: 5.0
Bull Case
BSOKE · (Batısöke Çimento) · Materials · Cement: defensive bounce case only — 5d -11.6% / 20d -14.6%. Need reclaim of short-term structure before sizing. Lead model Ensemble (6 models) assigns p(up)=0.25; portfolio fit 5.0 with position not held.
Bear Case
BSOKE: elevated vol (44.0%) and max drawdown 22.6% compress edge — false breakouts likely. Risk stack vol=100.0 · dd=75.3 · liq=0.0 · sector=100.0 → total 77.6.
Ensemble & Uncertainty
- consensus p(up): 0.247
- agreement: 60.0
- dispersion: 0.100
- calibrated conf: 0.600
- risk of wrong: 0.400
- data quality: 82.8
- 1d p10–p90: -0.018 → -0.018
- 5d p10–p90: — → —
source: QBMosaic weighted ensembleproxy / heuristicas of 2026-08-28 14:55 UTC
Same-as-of model votes weighted by learned StockModel weights, then gated by calibration, agreement and data quality.
Point-in-Time Intraday Timing
- availability: ELIGIBLE
- readiness: 82.6
- session: 2026-08-28
- activity: HIGH
- RVOL-T: 2.03
- deviation: -2.29pp
- Observed 5-minute quality 99.0 with 44 complete sessions
- high activity (84.5) and RVOL-T 2.03
- Path deviation -2.29pp versus the 20-session median
source: Yahoo Finance observed 5-minute barsproxy / heuristicas of 2026-08-28 14:55 UTC
Quality-, freshness- and sample-gated timing readiness. Volume, activity and deviation are non-directional and never change BUY into AVOID.
DQS contribution
daily 34.9 · models 25.0 · intraday 19.9 · settled 3.0
Why Not?
No hard NO_ACTION gate fired.
Catalysts
Yahoo path features (n=90) · asOf=2026-08-27 · model=Ensemble (6 models) · p(up)=0.25 · regime=strong-down · vol=elevated · fit=5.0 · not held · sector=Materials · evidence=no verified research evidence
Invalidation
Invalidate if total market risk > 87.6, drawdown extends beyond 27.6%, or 5d return worsens by >3pp without 20d repair. Liquidity score > 25.0 also voids size-up.
Key Assumptions
Rule thesis over Yahoo closes (sample 90). Mean-revert proxy 3.0%. Intraday timing ELIGIBLE at 82.6; activity is non-directional. Verified evidence count 0; unverified imports are excluded. No live LLM; committee text is numeric templates. XK030/sharia screens are membership-only — not a fundamental audit.
Exit Conditions
Remain flat. Re-open only after total risk < 60 and regime leaves strong-down/mixed with rising p(up). Exit any residual on further DD extension.
Paper Position
Replay Closure
snapshot 2026-08-27 · outcomes 3/2 · journals 0
- 1d SUPPORTED · -4.45%
- 3d SUPPORTED · -12.10%
- 5d SUPPORTED · -28.25%
Decision Evidence Pack
No verified point-in-time research evidence was attached to this decision.
AI Committee
GROWTH MANAGER
18.1Growth case needs stronger directional odds.
p(up)=0.25 from Ensemble (6 models) · Cement.
MACRO MANAGER
24.6Intermediate trend pressure argues patience.
20d regime -14.6% with vol 44.0% · Materials. No verified financial/news/disclosure evidence.
TECHNICAL MANAGER
30.2Tape soft (strong-down) — wait for reclaim.
5d -11.6% / 20d -14.6%; mean-revert 3.0%. Intraday timing ELIGIBLE 82.6; high activity (84.5) and RVOL-T 2.03.
RISK MANAGER
17.4Risk budget strained — size down or avoid.
Total 77.6 · volR 100.0 · ddR 75.3 · ann.vol 44.0%.
SENTIMENT MANAGER
60.0Conviction thin — crowd confirmation missing.
Confidence 60.0; decision AVOID. No verified financial/news/disclosure evidence.
CIO MANAGER
42.7Aggregate call: AVOID.
Opp 28.1 · fit 5.0 · risk 77.6 · not held.