VALUE MANAGER
51.3No clear value dislocation from price path alone.
Mean-revert gap -1.7%.
BIST · 2026-08-28
CANTE — NO_ACTION
Can2 Termik · operator [email protected]
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Outcome review · Learning Engine · Signal history
Scores
- prediction: 48.7
- confidence: 38.8
- opportunity: 37.7
- timing: 66.7
- portfolio fit: 5.0
Bull Case
CANTE · (Can2 Termik) · Energy · Utilities: tape regime constructive (5d 0.0%, 20d 1.7%). Continuation works if realized vol stays normal-high and drawdown holds near 38.2%. Lead model Ensemble (6 models) assigns p(up)=0.49; portfolio fit 5.0 with position not held.
Bear Case
CANTE: trend failure if 5d/20d reverse from regime constructive; watch drawdown 38.2%. Risk stack vol=86.8 · dd=100.0 · liq=0.0 · sector=88.4 → total 78.0.
Ensemble & Uncertainty
- consensus p(up): 0.487
- agreement: 90.5
- dispersion: 0.024
- calibrated conf: 0.388
- risk of wrong: 0.612
- data quality: 80.3
- 1d p10–p90: -0.024 → -0.024
- 5d p10–p90: — → —
source: QBMosaic weighted ensembleproxy / heuristicas of 2026-08-28 14:55 UTC
Same-as-of model votes weighted by learned StockModel weights, then gated by calibration, agreement and data quality.
Point-in-Time Intraday Timing
- availability: ELIGIBLE
- readiness: 79.3
- session: 2026-08-28
- activity: HIGH
- RVOL-T: 5.32
- deviation: 7.85pp
- Observed 5-minute quality 95.8 with 44 complete sessions
- high activity (96.5) and RVOL-T 5.32
- Path deviation 7.85pp versus the 20-session median
source: Yahoo Finance observed 5-minute barsproxy / heuristicas of 2026-08-28 14:55 UTC
Quality-, freshness- and sample-gated timing readiness. Volume, activity and deviation are non-directional and never change BUY into AVOID.
DQS contribution
daily 34.9 · models 25.0 · intraday 17.4 · settled 3.0
- Intraday diagnostics report 2 quality issues
- 1 intraday sessions are incomplete
Why Not?
- Calibrated confidence is below 45%
Catalysts
Yahoo path features (n=90) · asOf=2026-08-27 · model=Ensemble (6 models) · p(up)=0.49 · regime=constructive · vol=normal-high · fit=5.0 · not held · sector=Energy · evidence=no verified research evidence
Invalidation
Invalidate if total market risk > 88.0, drawdown extends beyond 43.2%, or 5d return worsens by >3pp without 20d repair. Liquidity score > 25.0 also voids size-up.
Key Assumptions
Rule thesis over Yahoo closes (sample 90). Mean-revert proxy -1.7%. Intraday timing ELIGIBLE at 79.3; activity is non-directional. Verified evidence count 0; unverified imports are excluded. No live LLM; committee text is numeric templates. XK030/sharia screens are membership-only — not a fundamental audit.
Exit Conditions
Wait for clearer 5d/20d alignment. No new risk until confidence and fit both improve.
Paper Position
Replay Closure
snapshot 2026-08-27 · outcomes 3/2 · journals 0
- 1d MISSED_MOVE · 7.44%
- 3d MISSED_MOVE · 7.44%
- 5d MISSED_MOVE · 10.74%
Decision Evidence Pack
No verified point-in-time research evidence was attached to this decision.
AI Committee
GROWTH MANAGER
43.5Growth case needs stronger directional odds.
p(up)=0.49 from Ensemble (6 models) · Utilities.
MACRO MANAGER
42.7Intermediate trend still constructive.
20d regime 1.7% with vol 34.7% · Energy. No verified financial/news/disclosure evidence.
TECHNICAL MANAGER
50.7Momentum tape supports a long bias (constructive).
5d 0.0% / 20d 1.7%; mean-revert -1.7%. Intraday timing ELIGIBLE 79.3; high activity (96.5) and RVOL-T 5.32.
RISK MANAGER
17.0Risk budget strained — size down or avoid.
Total 78.0 · volR 86.8 · ddR 100.0 · ann.vol 34.7%.
SENTIMENT MANAGER
38.8Conviction thin — crowd confirmation missing.
Confidence 38.8; decision NO_ACTION. No verified financial/news/disclosure evidence.
CIO MANAGER
48.6Aggregate call: NO_ACTION.
Opp 37.7 · fit 5.0 · risk 78.0 · not held.