VALUE MANAGER
15.0No clear value dislocation from price path alone.
Mean-revert gap 52.6%.
BIST · 2026-08-28
CVKMD — AVOID
CVK Maden · operator [email protected]
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Outcome review · Learning Engine · Signal history
Scores
- prediction: 21.7
- confidence: 68.3
- opportunity: 27.9
- timing: 70.9
- portfolio fit: 5.0
Bull Case
CVKMD · (CVK Maden) · Materials · Mining: defensive bounce case only — 5d -5.0% / 20d -57.6%. Need reclaim of short-term structure before sizing. Lead model Ensemble (6 models) assigns p(up)=0.22; portfolio fit 5.0 with position not held.
Bear Case
CVKMD: extreme vol (117.5%) and max drawdown 69.5% compress edge — false breakouts likely. Risk stack vol=100.0 · dd=100.0 · liq=0.0 · sector=100.0 → total 85.0.
Ensemble & Uncertainty
- consensus p(up): 0.217
- agreement: 66.2
- dispersion: 0.085
- calibrated conf: 0.683
- risk of wrong: 0.317
- data quality: 82.7
- 1d p10–p90: -0.035 → -0.035
- 5d p10–p90: — → —
source: QBMosaic weighted ensembleproxy / heuristicas of 2026-08-28 14:55 UTC
Same-as-of model votes weighted by learned StockModel weights, then gated by calibration, agreement and data quality.
Point-in-Time Intraday Timing
- availability: ELIGIBLE
- readiness: 80.5
- session: 2026-08-28
- activity: HIGH
- RVOL-T: 2.59
- deviation: 5.89pp
- Observed 5-minute quality 100.0 with 44 complete sessions
- high activity (72.0) and RVOL-T 2.59
- Path deviation 5.89pp versus the 20-session median
source: Yahoo Finance observed 5-minute barsproxy / heuristicas of 2026-08-28 14:55 UTC
Quality-, freshness- and sample-gated timing readiness. Volume, activity and deviation are non-directional and never change BUY into AVOID.
DQS contribution
daily 34.7 · models 25.0 · intraday 20.0 · settled 3.0
Why Not?
No hard NO_ACTION gate fired.
Catalysts
Yahoo path features (n=90) · asOf=2026-08-27 · model=Ensemble (6 models) · p(up)=0.22 · regime=strong-down · vol=extreme · fit=5.0 · not held · sector=Materials · evidence=no verified research evidence
Invalidation
Invalidate if total market risk > 95.0, drawdown extends beyond 74.5%, or 5d return worsens by >3pp without 20d repair. Liquidity score > 25.0 also voids size-up.
Key Assumptions
Rule thesis over Yahoo closes (sample 90). Mean-revert proxy 52.6%. Intraday timing ELIGIBLE at 80.5; activity is non-directional. Verified evidence count 0; unverified imports are excluded. No live LLM; committee text is numeric templates. XK030/sharia screens are membership-only — not a fundamental audit.
Exit Conditions
Remain flat. Re-open only after total risk < 60 and regime leaves strong-down/mixed with rising p(up). Exit any residual on further DD extension.
Paper Position
Replay Closure
snapshot 2026-08-27 · outcomes 3/2 · journals 0
- 1d CONTRADICTED · 5.02%
- 3d CONTRADICTED · 2.73%
- 5d CONTRADICTED · 0.19%
Decision Evidence Pack
No verified point-in-time research evidence was attached to this decision.
AI Committee
GROWTH MANAGER
15.0Growth case needs stronger directional odds.
p(up)=0.22 from Ensemble (6 models) · Mining.
MACRO MANAGER
15.0Intermediate trend pressure argues patience.
20d regime -57.6% with vol 117.5% · Materials. No verified financial/news/disclosure evidence.
TECHNICAL MANAGER
20.9Tape soft (strong-down) — wait for reclaim.
5d -5.0% / 20d -57.6%; mean-revert 52.6%. Intraday timing ELIGIBLE 80.5; high activity (72.0) and RVOL-T 2.59.
RISK MANAGER
10.0Risk budget strained — size down or avoid.
Total 85.0 · volR 100.0 · ddR 100.0 · ann.vol 117.5%.
SENTIMENT MANAGER
68.3Signal confidence supportive.
Confidence 68.3; decision AVOID. No verified financial/news/disclosure evidence.
CIO MANAGER
44.0Aggregate call: AVOID.
Opp 27.9 · fit 5.0 · risk 85.0 · not held.