VALUE MANAGER
50.4No clear value dislocation from price path alone.
Mean-revert gap -0.5%.
BIST · 2026-10-28
TUKAS — WATCH
Tukaş · operator [email protected]
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Outcome review · Learning Engine · Signal history
Scores
- prediction: 38.9
- confidence: 69.5
- opportunity: 41.0
- timing: 74.6
- portfolio fit: 5.0
Bull Case
TUKAS · (Tukaş) · Consumer Staples · Food: defensive bounce case only — 5d -4.1% / 20d -3.6%. Need reclaim of short-term structure before sizing. Lead model Ensemble (6 models) assigns p(up)=0.39; portfolio fit 5.0 with position not held.
Bear Case
TUKAS: elevated vol (39.3%) and max drawdown 21.8% compress edge — false breakouts likely. Risk stack vol=98.3 · dd=72.7 · liq=0.0 · sector=100.0 → total 76.1.
Ensemble & Uncertainty
- consensus p(up): 0.389
- agreement: 74.2
- dispersion: 0.065
- calibrated conf: 0.696
- risk of wrong: 0.304
- data quality: 93.2
- 1d p10–p90: -0.010 → 0.015
- 5d p10–p90: 0.015 → 0.020
source: QBMosaic weighted ensembleproxy / heuristicas of 2026-10-28 09:35 UTC
Same-as-of model votes weighted by learned StockModel weights, then gated by calibration, agreement and data quality.
Point-in-Time Intraday Timing
- availability: INSUFFICIENT
- readiness: —
- session: 2026-10-28
- activity: NORMAL
- RVOL-T: 0.87
- deviation: 1.08pp
- Current intraday quality 32.3 is below 60
source: Yahoo Finance observed 5-minute barsproxy / heuristicas of 2026-10-28 09:35 UTC
Quality-, freshness- and sample-gated timing readiness. Volume, activity and deviation are non-directional and never change BUY into AVOID.
DQS contribution
daily 35.0 · models 25.0 · intraday 15.2 · settled 18.0
- 1 intraday sessions are incomplete
Why Not?
No hard NO_ACTION gate fired.
Catalysts
Yahoo path features (n=90) · asOf=2026-10-28 · model=Ensemble (6 models) · p(up)=0.39 · regime=strong-down · vol=elevated · fit=5.0 · not held · sector=Consumer Staples · evidence=no verified research evidence
Invalidation
Invalidate if total market risk > 86.1, drawdown extends beyond 26.8%, or 5d return worsens by >3pp without 20d repair. Liquidity score > 25.0 also voids size-up.
Key Assumptions
Rule thesis over Yahoo closes (sample 90). Mean-revert proxy -0.5%. Intraday timing INSUFFICIENT; activity is non-directional. Verified evidence count 0; unverified imports are excluded. No live LLM; committee text is numeric templates. XK030/sharia screens are membership-only — not a fundamental audit.
Exit Conditions
Stay on watch until p(up)≥0.58 and opportunity clears risk gates without vol spike. Re-check after next Yahoo settle (1d/3d/5d).
Paper Position
Replay Closure
Decision Evidence Pack
No verified point-in-time research evidence was attached to this decision.
AI Committee
GROWTH MANAGER
33.0Growth case needs stronger directional odds.
p(up)=0.39 from Ensemble (6 models) · Food.
MACRO MANAGER
36.5Intermediate trend pressure argues patience.
20d regime -3.6% with vol 39.3% · Consumer Staples. No verified financial/news/disclosure evidence.
TECHNICAL MANAGER
43.6Tape soft (strong-down) — wait for reclaim.
5d -4.1% / 20d -3.6%; mean-revert -0.5%. Intraday timing INSUFFICIENT; no eligible observed 5-minute context.
RISK MANAGER
18.9Risk budget strained — size down or avoid.
Total 76.1 · volR 98.3 · ddR 72.7 · ann.vol 39.3%.
SENTIMENT MANAGER
69.5Signal confidence supportive.
Confidence 69.5; decision WATCH. No verified financial/news/disclosure evidence.
CIO MANAGER
51.7Aggregate call: WATCH.
Opp 41.0 · fit 5.0 · risk 76.1 · not held.