VALUE MANAGER
45.9No clear value dislocation from price path alone.
Mean-revert gap 5.1%.
BIST · 2026-10-28
CIMSA — WATCH
Çimsa · operator [email protected]
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Outcome review · Learning Engine · Signal history
Scores
- prediction: 42.2
- confidence: 67.8
- opportunity: 43.3
- timing: 73.9
- portfolio fit: 5.0
Bull Case
CIMSA · (Çimsa) · Materials · Cement: bounce inside a soft 20d (-4.8%); treat strength as tactical unless 20d flips positive. Lead model Ensemble (6 models) assigns p(up)=0.42; portfolio fit 5.0 with position not held.
Bear Case
CIMSA: trend failure if 5d/20d reverse from regime bounce-in-downtrend; watch drawdown 26.1%. Risk stack vol=80.7 · dd=86.9 · liq=0.0 · sector=82.0 → total 70.6.
Ensemble & Uncertainty
- consensus p(up): 0.422
- agreement: 73.8
- dispersion: 0.066
- calibrated conf: 0.678
- risk of wrong: 0.322
- data quality: 93.2
- 1d p10–p90: -0.009 → 0.009
- 5d p10–p90: 0.007 → 0.014
source: QBMosaic weighted ensembleproxy / heuristicas of 2026-10-28 09:35 UTC
Same-as-of model votes weighted by learned StockModel weights, then gated by calibration, agreement and data quality.
Point-in-Time Intraday Timing
- availability: INSUFFICIENT
- readiness: —
- session: 2026-10-28
- activity: NORMAL
- RVOL-T: 0.69
- deviation: 0.30pp
- Current intraday quality 32.3 is below 60
source: Yahoo Finance observed 5-minute barsproxy / heuristicas of 2026-10-28 09:35 UTC
Quality-, freshness- and sample-gated timing readiness. Volume, activity and deviation are non-directional and never change BUY into AVOID.
DQS contribution
daily 35.0 · models 25.0 · intraday 15.2 · settled 18.0
- 1 intraday sessions are incomplete
Why Not?
No hard NO_ACTION gate fired.
Catalysts
Yahoo path features (n=90) · asOf=2026-10-28 · model=Ensemble (6 models) · p(up)=0.42 · regime=bounce-in-downtrend · vol=normal-high · fit=5.0 · not held · sector=Materials · evidence=no verified research evidence
Invalidation
Invalidate if total market risk > 80.6, drawdown extends beyond 31.1%, or 5d return worsens by >3pp without 20d repair. Liquidity score > 25.0 also voids size-up.
Key Assumptions
Rule thesis over Yahoo closes (sample 90). Mean-revert proxy 5.1%. Intraday timing INSUFFICIENT; activity is non-directional. Verified evidence count 0; unverified imports are excluded. No live LLM; committee text is numeric templates. XK030/sharia screens are membership-only — not a fundamental audit.
Exit Conditions
Stay on watch until p(up)≥0.58 and opportunity clears risk gates without vol spike. Re-check after next Yahoo settle (1d/3d/5d).
Paper Position
Replay Closure
Decision Evidence Pack
No verified point-in-time research evidence was attached to this decision.
AI Committee
GROWTH MANAGER
37.3Growth case needs stronger directional odds.
p(up)=0.42 from Ensemble (6 models) · Cement.
MACRO MANAGER
36.8Intermediate trend pressure argues patience.
20d regime -4.8% with vol 32.3% · Materials. No verified financial/news/disclosure evidence.
TECHNICAL MANAGER
48.5Momentum tape supports a long bias (bounce-in-downtrend).
5d 0.4% / 20d -4.8%; mean-revert 5.1%. Intraday timing INSUFFICIENT; no eligible observed 5-minute context.
RISK MANAGER
24.4Risk budget strained — size down or avoid.
Total 70.6 · volR 80.7 · ddR 86.9 · ann.vol 32.3%.
SENTIMENT MANAGER
67.8Signal confidence supportive.
Confidence 67.8; decision WATCH. No verified financial/news/disclosure evidence.
CIO MANAGER
52.3Aggregate call: WATCH.
Opp 43.3 · fit 5.0 · risk 70.6 · not held.