VALUE MANAGER
44.0No clear value dislocation from price path alone.
Mean-revert gap 7.5%.
BIST · 2026-10-28
BIMAS — AVOID
BİM Mağazalar · operator [email protected]
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Outcome review · Learning Engine · Signal history
Scores
- prediction: 30.5
- confidence: 70.1
- opportunity: 39.1
- timing: 70.1
- portfolio fit: 5.0
Bull Case
BIMAS · (BİM Mağazalar) · Consumer Staples · Retail: defensive bounce case only — 5d -5.4% / 20d -12.8%. Need reclaim of short-term structure before sizing. Lead model Ensemble (6 models) assigns p(up)=0.30; portfolio fit 5.0 with position not held.
Bear Case
BIMAS: trend failure if 5d/20d reverse from regime strong-down; watch drawdown 16.5%. Risk stack vol=80.7 · dd=55.0 · liq=0.0 · sector=82.7 → total 61.2.
Ensemble & Uncertainty
- consensus p(up): 0.305
- agreement: 61.4
- dispersion: 0.097
- calibrated conf: 0.701
- risk of wrong: 0.299
- data quality: 93.2
- 1d p10–p90: 0.028 → 0.060
- 5d p10–p90: 0.031 → 0.079
source: QBMosaic weighted ensembleproxy / heuristicas of 2026-10-28 09:35 UTC
Same-as-of model votes weighted by learned StockModel weights, then gated by calibration, agreement and data quality.
Point-in-Time Intraday Timing
- availability: INSUFFICIENT
- readiness: —
- session: 2026-10-28
- activity: HIGH
- RVOL-T: 1.70
- deviation: 0.68pp
- Current intraday quality 32.3 is below 60
source: Yahoo Finance observed 5-minute barsproxy / heuristicas of 2026-10-28 09:35 UTC
Quality-, freshness- and sample-gated timing readiness. Volume, activity and deviation are non-directional and never change BUY into AVOID.
DQS contribution
daily 35.0 · models 25.0 · intraday 15.2 · settled 18.0
- 1 intraday sessions are incomplete
Why Not?
No hard NO_ACTION gate fired.
Catalysts
Yahoo path features (n=90) · asOf=2026-10-28 · model=Ensemble (6 models) · p(up)=0.30 · regime=strong-down · vol=normal-high · fit=5.0 · not held · sector=Consumer Staples · evidence=no verified research evidence
Invalidation
Invalidate if total market risk > 71.2, drawdown extends beyond 21.5%, or 5d return worsens by >3pp without 20d repair. Liquidity score > 25.0 also voids size-up.
Key Assumptions
Rule thesis over Yahoo closes (sample 90). Mean-revert proxy 7.5%. Intraday timing INSUFFICIENT; activity is non-directional. Verified evidence count 0; unverified imports are excluded. No live LLM; committee text is numeric templates. XK030/sharia screens are membership-only — not a fundamental audit.
Exit Conditions
Remain flat. Re-open only after total risk < 60 and regime leaves strong-down/mixed with rising p(up). Exit any residual on further DD extension.
Paper Position
Replay Closure
Decision Evidence Pack
No verified point-in-time research evidence was attached to this decision.
AI Committee
GROWTH MANAGER
25.6Growth case needs stronger directional odds.
p(up)=0.30 from Ensemble (6 models) · Retail.
MACRO MANAGER
28.7Intermediate trend pressure argues patience.
20d regime -12.8% with vol 32.3% · Consumer Staples. No verified financial/news/disclosure evidence.
TECHNICAL MANAGER
38.4Tape soft (strong-down) — wait for reclaim.
5d -5.4% / 20d -12.8%; mean-revert 7.5%. Intraday timing INSUFFICIENT; no eligible observed 5-minute context.
RISK MANAGER
33.8Risk inside tolerance for selective exposure.
Total 61.2 · volR 80.7 · ddR 55.0 · ann.vol 32.3%.
SENTIMENT MANAGER
70.1Signal confidence supportive.
Confidence 70.1; decision AVOID. No verified financial/news/disclosure evidence.
CIO MANAGER
48.8Aggregate call: AVOID.
Opp 39.1 · fit 5.0 · risk 61.2 · not held.