BIST · TRY
BIMAS — BİM Mağazalar
Consumer Staples · Retail · TR
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Tek hisse için fiyat, risk, adaptive challenger ve nihai Decision Card.
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Grafikler gerekçeyi açıklar. Nihai aksiyon Decision Card’daki AL/SAT/TUT/BEKLE’dir.
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Predictability · Regime · Risk · Signal Engine
Decision Card
BIST:BIMAS · BİM Mağazalar
- Güven
- 70
- Optimal ufuk
- 1g
- Predictability
- 61
- Opportunity
- 53
- Beklenen getiri
- +4.4%
- Beklenen downside
- +2.8%
- Rejim
- BEAR:HIGH_VOLATILITY
- Regime güven
- 45
- Risk
- ORTA
- Hesap
- 2026-10-28 09:35
- Veri aralığı
- 2021-10-28 → 2026-10-28
- Tazelik
- 2g önce
- Decision engine
- decision-v1
- Strateji
- Ensemble (6 models)
- Model
- ensemble-heuristic-v1
- Özellik / veri
- adaptive-factor-v1 · yahoo:daily
- EMA OOS
- 31 · CROSS_BELOW · n=47
BIMAS — BEKLE Optimal horizon: 1 gün Predictability: %61 Opportunity Score: 53 Beklenen net hareket: +4.4% Regime: BEAR:HIGH_VOLATILITY · güven %45 Opportunity sürücüleri: Beklenen net getiri, Predictability, Karar opportunity. Sınıf: Güvenilmez. Ne operasyonel BUY ne production adaptive BUY mevcut. Opportunity 53 < 62; maliyet sonrası edge yetersiz. Yeterli istatistiksel avantaj yok; BEKLE bilinçli bir karardır. EMA9, EMA36'yı aşağı kesti (bearish crossover). BIST'te short değil; çıkış/BEKLE adayı. Bu sinyal bu seride 47 kez oluştu (filtrelenmiş örnek: 47). 10 bar sonra win rate 28%, medyan getiri -6.2%. Reliability 35 / OOS 31. Karar motoru OOS'a daha çok ağırlık verir. EMA tek başına AL üretmez.
BEKLE, edge oluşana kadar geçerlidir. Predictability ≥ 80 tek başına AL üretmez.
Opportunity bileşenleri
- Predictability61 · w16
- Beklenen net getiri68 · w20
- Karar opportunity39 · w15
- Risk-ayarlı getiri42 · w13
- Regime confidence45 · w11
- Maliyet sonrası dayanıklılık— · w9
- Örnek yeterliliği60 · w8
- EMA crossover (OOS)— · w8
EMA Crossover
- EMA9
- 375.71
- EMA36
- 395.69
- Son crossover
- CROSS BELOW · 15 bar
- Reliability
- 35 / OOS 31
- Win rate
- 28%
- Medyan 10-bar
- -6.2%
- Örnek
- 47
- Profit factor
- 0.29
- Rejim
- STRONG_BULL · 100%
- MFE / MAE
- 5.0% / -6.2%
Neden? · BIMAS
- EMA9, EMA36'yı aşağı kesti (bearish crossover). BIST'te short değil; çıkış/BEKLE adayı.
- Bu sinyal bu seride 47 kez oluştu (filtrelenmiş örnek: 47).
- 10 bar sonra win rate 28%, medyan getiri -6.2%.
- Reliability 35 / OOS 31. Karar motoru OOS'a daha çok ağırlık verir.
- EMA tek başına AL üretmez.
Whipsaw filtreleri (OOS)
- BASE · seçiliOOS 32 · n=47
- ADX20OOS 8 · n=11
- EMA200OOS 34 · n=22
- VOLUMEOOS 42 · n=25
- RSI50OOS 32 · n=47
- HTF_TRENDOOS 39 · n=20
- SLOPEOOS 29 · n=45
- SEPARATIONOOS 19 · n=14
- ATROOS 29 · n=45
En sağlam yakın çift EMA5/20 (robustness 60). En yüksek in-sample getiri EMA50/200 — bu yüzden seçilmedi.
BIMAS 1d EMA9/36 genel win rate 28%; rejim kırılımı kartın üstünde. Yatay / düşük örnek rejimler BEKLE’ye iter.
Operator Actions
Price
Observed daily OHLCV bars. Yahoo is an unofficial free feed and may be delayed or incomplete.
Yahoo Features
- sample: 120 closes
- ret5: 3.6%
- ret20: 8.42%
- mean-revert gap: -4.83%
- ann. vol: 25%
Predictability
61
Volatility
83
Liquidity
100
ret5, ret20, mean-reversion gap and annualized realized volatility; profile scores are market-risk heuristics.
Intraday Pattern · Open = 100
Latest session
364.75 · +0.62%
Same time · previous
-0.07%
5D / 20D median
-0.07% / -0.06%
RVOL-T
1.7×
Time Activity Score
86 / 100
HIGH
- session: 2026-10-28
- same weekday: -0.38%
- deviation: 0.68 pp
- 5D mean: -0.2% · n=5
- 20D mean: -0.11% · n=20
- volume ratio: 1.7×
- volatility ratio: 1.74×
- complete history: 47
- same-weekday n: 7
- excluded incomplete: 2
Sync quality & outliers
- invalid bars: 0
- duplicate slots: 0
- price outliers: 0
- volume outliers: 0
- average quality: 77.4
- sync duration: 405 ms
Each session is normalized to open=100. Median is primary and dotted mean is auxiliary; incomplete/price-outlier sessions are excluded. RVOL-T compares cumulative volume with prior 20 complete sessions. Activity is not a direction forecast.
Market Risk
- total: 61.2
- volatility: 80.7
- drawdown: 55
- liquidity: 0
- sector: 82.7
- portfolio: 95
Realized volatility, peak-to-trough drawdown and volume-liquidity heuristics. Sector risk is a profile hint.
Latest Prediction
- model: Momentum
- p(up): 0.284
- E[r]: -0.05
- risk: 0.38
- conf: 0.761
- outcomes: Open
Model-name-specific feature weights; not trained XGBoost/LSTM/Transformer inference. Thin history may use deterministic fallback.
Latest Decision
quality 48.8 · risk 61.2 · fit 5
- consensus p(up): 0.305
- agreement: 61.4
- dispersion: 0.097
- calibrated conf: 0.701
- risk of wrong: 0.299
- data quality: 93.2
- 1d p10–p90: 0.028 → 0.06
- 5d p10–p90: 0.031 → 0.079
Bull: BIMAS · (BİM Mağazalar) · Consumer Staples · Retail: defensive bounce case only — 5d -5.4% / 20d -12.8%. Need reclaim of short-term structure before sizing. Lead model Ensemble (6 models) assigns p(up)=0.30; portfolio fit 5.0 with position not held.
Bear: BIMAS: trend failure if 5d/20d reverse from regime strong-down; watch drawdown 16.5%. Risk stack vol=80.7 · dd=55.0 · liq=0.0 · sector=82.7 → total 61.2.
Yahoo path features (n=90) · asOf=2026-10-28 · model=Ensemble (6 models) · p(up)=0.30 · regime=strong-down · vol=normal-high · fit=5.0 · not held · sector=Consumer Staples · evidence=no verified research evidence
Invalidation: Invalidate if total market risk > 71.2, drawdown extends beyond 21.5%, or 5d return worsens by >3pp without 20d repair. Liquidity score > 25.0 also voids size-up.
Exit: Remain flat. Re-open only after total risk < 60 and regime leaves strong-down/mixed with rising p(up). Exit any residual on further DD extension.
StockModel-weighted same-as-of ensemble with calibration, agreement and data-quality gates. Empirical intervals are p10–p90 settled returns. Thesis and committee are templates, not live LLM agents.
Yahoo Market Activity Proxy
- flow: -3.58
- accum: 32.1
- distrib: 67.9
Market-activity proxy from volume × price × momentum. Not BIST member, BofA/MLB, custody or order-flow data.
Catalyst Timeline
- 2026-03-31 · FINANCIALunverified / excludedimportance 65
BIMAS TTM financial results
Yahoo quote-summary TTM proxy; not an official KAP financial statement
Earnings quality and balance-sheet trajectory · Yahoo Finance Fundamentals Proxy
Only explicitly verified catalyst records are attached to new theses and committee reasoning; unverified imports remain visible but excluded.
Recent Predictions
- Momentump(up) 0.28 · Open
- News Modelp(up) 0.46 · Open
- LSTMp(up) 0.22 · Open
- Macro Modelp(up) 0.21 · Open
- Transformerp(up) 0.22 · Open
Scenario Sensitivities
- Risk-Off Shockp 0.67 · eff -17.6%
- Soft Landingp 0.37 · eff -10.4%
- Inflation Reaccelerationp 0.56 · eff -8.4%
Heuristic scenario sensitivity; not a macro world model or counterfactual simulation.