VALUE MANAGER
67.2Pullback inside uptrend — value entry window.
Mean-revert gap -21.4%.
BIST · 2026-08-28
ALTNY — WATCH
Altınay Savunma · operator [email protected]
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Outcome review · Learning Engine · Signal history
Scores
- prediction: 65.6
- confidence: 49.1
- opportunity: 46.4
- timing: 70.2
- portfolio fit: 5.0
Bull Case
ALTNY · (Altınay Savunma) · Industrials · Defense: pullback-in-uptrend (5d -0.4% inside 20d 21.1%). Mean-revert gap -21.4% offers a staged entry if risk score cools. Lead model Ensemble (6 models) assigns p(up)=0.66; portfolio fit 5.0 with position not held.
Bear Case
ALTNY: extreme vol (52.8%) and max drawdown 21.9% compress edge — false breakouts likely. Risk stack vol=100.0 · dd=72.9 · liq=0.0 · sector=100.0 → total 76.9.
Ensemble & Uncertainty
- consensus p(up): 0.656
- agreement: 76.2
- dispersion: 0.059
- calibrated conf: 0.491
- risk of wrong: 0.509
- data quality: 82.9
- 1d p10–p90: -0.014 → -0.014
- 5d p10–p90: — → —
source: QBMosaic weighted ensembleproxy / heuristicas of 2026-08-28 14:55 UTC
Same-as-of model votes weighted by learned StockModel weights, then gated by calibration, agreement and data quality.
Point-in-Time Intraday Timing
- availability: ELIGIBLE
- readiness: 93.6
- session: 2026-08-28
- activity: NORMAL
- RVOL-T: 1.50
- deviation: 0.94pp
- Observed 5-minute quality 100.0 with 44 complete sessions
- normal activity (63.5) and RVOL-T 1.50
- Path deviation 0.94pp versus the 20-session median
source: Yahoo Finance observed 5-minute barsproxy / heuristicas of 2026-08-28 14:55 UTC
Quality-, freshness- and sample-gated timing readiness. Volume, activity and deviation are non-directional and never change BUY into AVOID.
DQS contribution
daily 34.9 · models 25.0 · intraday 20.0 · settled 3.0
Why Not?
No hard NO_ACTION gate fired.
Catalysts
Yahoo path features (n=90) · asOf=2026-08-27 · model=Ensemble (6 models) · p(up)=0.66 · regime=pullback-in-uptrend · vol=extreme · fit=5.0 · not held · sector=Industrials · evidence=no verified research evidence
Invalidation
Invalidate if total market risk > 86.9, drawdown extends beyond 26.9%, or 5d return worsens by >3pp without 20d repair. Liquidity score > 25.0 also voids size-up.
Key Assumptions
Rule thesis over Yahoo closes (sample 90). Mean-revert proxy -21.4%. Intraday timing ELIGIBLE at 93.6; activity is non-directional. Verified evidence count 0; unverified imports are excluded. No live LLM; committee text is numeric templates. XK030/sharia screens are membership-only — not a fundamental audit.
Exit Conditions
Stay on watch until p(up)≥0.58 and opportunity clears risk gates without vol spike. Re-check after next Yahoo settle (1d/3d/5d).
Paper Position
Replay Closure
snapshot 2026-08-27 · outcomes 3/2 · journals 0
- 1d NEUTRAL · -0.38%
- 3d RISK_AVOIDED · -6.25%
- 5d RISK_AVOIDED · -10.24%
Decision Evidence Pack
No verified point-in-time research evidence was attached to this decision.
AI Committee
GROWTH MANAGER
57.6Growth path asymmetric if continuation holds.
p(up)=0.66 from Ensemble (6 models) · Defense.
MACRO MANAGER
58.5Intermediate trend still constructive.
20d regime 21.1% with vol 52.8% · Industrials. No verified financial/news/disclosure evidence.
TECHNICAL MANAGER
58.0Tape soft (pullback-in-uptrend) — wait for reclaim.
5d -0.4% / 20d 21.1%; mean-revert -21.4%. Intraday timing ELIGIBLE 93.6; normal activity (63.5) and RVOL-T 1.50.
RISK MANAGER
18.1Risk budget strained — size down or avoid.
Total 76.9 · volR 100.0 · ddR 72.9 · ann.vol 52.8%.
SENTIMENT MANAGER
49.1Conviction thin — crowd confirmation missing.
Confidence 49.1; decision WATCH. No verified financial/news/disclosure evidence.
CIO MANAGER
51.4Aggregate call: WATCH.
Opp 46.4 · fit 5.0 · risk 76.9 · not held.