BIST · TRY
ALTNY — Altınay Savunma
Industrials · Defense · TR
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Tek hisse için fiyat, risk, adaptive challenger ve nihai Decision Card.
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Predictability · Regime · Risk · Signal Engine
Decision Card
BIST:ALTNY · Altınay Savunma
- Güven
- 74
- Optimal ufuk
- 1g
- Predictability
- 47
- Opportunity
- 48
- Beklenen getiri
- +4.3%
- Beklenen downside
- -1.4%
- Rejim
- BEAR:HIGH_VOLATILITY
- Regime güven
- 43
- Risk
- YÜKSEK
- Hesap
- 2026-10-28 09:35
- Veri aralığı
- 2024-05-16 → 2026-10-28
- Tazelik
- 2g önce
- Decision engine
- decision-v1
- Strateji
- Ensemble (6 models)
- Model
- ensemble-heuristic-v1
- Özellik / veri
- adaptive-factor-v1 · yahoo:daily
- EMA OOS
- 29 · CROSS_BELOW · n=29
ALTNY — BEKLE Optimal horizon: 1 gün Predictability: %47 Opportunity Score: 48 Beklenen net hareket: +4.3% Regime: BEAR:HIGH_VOLATILITY · güven %43 Opportunity sürücüleri: Beklenen net getiri, Predictability, Örnek yeterliliği. Sınıf: Güvenilmez. Predictability 47 < 55; istatistiksel avantaj yok. EMA9, EMA36'yı aşağı kesti (bearish crossover). BIST'te short değil; çıkış/BEKLE adayı. Bu sinyal bu seride 29 kez oluştu (filtrelenmiş örnek: 29). 10 bar sonra win rate 41%, medyan getiri -2.3%. Reliability 42 / OOS 29. Karar motoru OOS'a daha çok ağırlık verir. EMA tek başına AL üretmez.
BEKLE, edge oluşana kadar geçerlidir. Predictability ≥ 80 tek başına AL üretmez.
Opportunity bileşenleri
- Predictability47 · w16
- Beklenen net getiri67 · w20
- Karar opportunity32 · w15
- Risk-ayarlı getiri33 · w13
- Regime confidence43 · w11
- Maliyet sonrası dayanıklılık— · w9
- Örnek yeterliliği60 · w8
- EMA crossover (OOS)— · w8
EMA Crossover
- EMA9
- 10.91
- EMA36
- 12.88
- Son crossover
- CROSS BELOW · 30 bar
- Reliability
- 42 / OOS 29
- Win rate
- 41%
- Medyan 10-bar
- -2.3%
- Örnek
- 29
- Profit factor
- 0.55
- Rejim
- HIGH_VOLATILITY · 100%
- MFE / MAE
- 6.4% / -7.2%
Neden? · ALTNY
- EMA9, EMA36'yı aşağı kesti (bearish crossover). BIST'te short değil; çıkış/BEKLE adayı.
- Bu sinyal bu seride 29 kez oluştu (filtrelenmiş örnek: 29).
- 10 bar sonra win rate 41%, medyan getiri -2.3%.
- Reliability 42 / OOS 29. Karar motoru OOS'a daha çok ağırlık verir.
- EMA tek başına AL üretmez.
Whipsaw filtreleri (OOS)
- BASE · seçiliOOS 28 · n=29
- ADX20OOS 35 · n=13
- EMA200OOS 28 · n=14
- VOLUMEOOS 22 · n=15
- RSI50OOS 28 · n=29
- HTF_TRENDOOS 35 · n=7
- SLOPEOOS 37 · n=25
- SEPARATIONOOS 35 · n=8
- ATROOS 35 · n=7
En sağlam yakın çift EMA8/21 (robustness 62). En yüksek in-sample getiri EMA9/21 — bu yüzden seçilmedi.
ALTNY 1d EMA9/36 genel win rate 41%; rejim kırılımı kartın üstünde. Yatay / düşük örnek rejimler BEKLE’ye iter.
Operator Actions
Price
Observed daily OHLCV bars. Yahoo is an unofficial free feed and may be delayed or incomplete.
Yahoo Features
- sample: 120 closes
- ret5: -4.95%
- ret20: 6.46%
- mean-revert gap: -11.41%
- ann. vol: 38.2%
Predictability
47
Volatility
100
Liquidity
100
ret5, ret20, mean-reversion gap and annualized realized volatility; profile scores are market-risk heuristics.
Intraday Pattern · Open = 100
Latest session
10.28 · +1.48%
Same time · previous
-1.15%
5D / 20D median
-1.15% / -0.64%
RVOL-T
0.97×
Time Activity Score
59 / 100
NORMAL
- session: 2026-10-28
- same weekday: -1.27%
- deviation: 2.12 pp
- 5D mean: -0.4% · n=5
- 20D mean: -0.38% · n=20
- volume ratio: 0.97×
- volatility ratio: 1.41×
- complete history: 47
- same-weekday n: 7
- excluded incomplete: 2
Sync quality & outliers
- invalid bars: 0
- duplicate slots: 0
- price outliers: 0
- volume outliers: 0
- average quality: 77.4
- sync duration: 215 ms
Each session is normalized to open=100. Median is primary and dotted mean is auxiliary; incomplete/price-outlier sessions are excluded. RVOL-T compares cumulative volume with prior 20 complete sessions. Activity is not a direction forecast.
Market Risk
- total: 85
- volatility: 100
- drawdown: 100
- liquidity: 0
- sector: 100
- portfolio: 95
Realized volatility, peak-to-trough drawdown and volume-liquidity heuristics. Sector risk is a profile hint.
Latest Prediction
- model: Momentum
- p(up): 0.207
- E[r]: -0.074
- risk: 0.55
- conf: 0.811
- outcomes: Open
Model-name-specific feature weights; not trained XGBoost/LSTM/Transformer inference. Thin history may use deterministic fallback.
Latest Decision
quality 46.2 · risk 85 · fit 5
- consensus p(up): 0.26
- agreement: 58.9
- dispersion: 0.103
- calibrated conf: 0.741
- risk of wrong: 0.259
- data quality: 93.2
- 1d p10–p90: -0.014 → 0.1
- 5d p10–p90: 0.191 → 0.195
Bull: ALTNY · (Altınay Savunma) · Industrials · Defense: defensive bounce case only — 5d -7.5% / 20d -19.9%. Need reclaim of short-term structure before sizing. Lead model Ensemble (6 models) assigns p(up)=0.26; portfolio fit 5.0 with position not held.
Bear: ALTNY: extreme vol (60.0%) and max drawdown 47.3% compress edge — false breakouts likely. Risk stack vol=100.0 · dd=100.0 · liq=0.0 · sector=100.0 → total 85.0.
Yahoo path features (n=90) · asOf=2026-10-28 · model=Ensemble (6 models) · p(up)=0.26 · regime=strong-down · vol=extreme · fit=5.0 · not held · sector=Industrials · evidence=no verified research evidence
Invalidation: Invalidate if total market risk > 95.0, drawdown extends beyond 52.3%, or 5d return worsens by >3pp without 20d repair. Liquidity score > 25.0 also voids size-up.
Exit: Remain flat. Re-open only after total risk < 60 and regime leaves strong-down/mixed with rising p(up). Exit any residual on further DD extension.
StockModel-weighted same-as-of ensemble with calibration, agreement and data-quality gates. Empirical intervals are p10–p90 settled returns. Thesis and committee are templates, not live LLM agents.
Yahoo Market Activity Proxy
- flow: -3.79
- accum: 31.1
- distrib: 68.9
Market-activity proxy from volume × price × momentum. Not BIST member, BofA/MLB, custody or order-flow data.
Catalyst Timeline
- 2026-03-31 · FINANCIALunverified / excludedimportance 65
ALTNY TTM financial results
Yahoo quote-summary TTM proxy; not an official KAP financial statement
Earnings quality and balance-sheet trajectory · Yahoo Finance Fundamentals Proxy
Only explicitly verified catalyst records are attached to new theses and committee reasoning; unverified imports remain visible but excluded.
Recent Predictions
- Momentump(up) 0.21 · Open
- News Modelp(up) 0.45 · Open
- LSTMp(up) 0.18 · Open
- Macro Modelp(up) 0.18 · Open
- Transformerp(up) 0.18 · Open
Scenario Sensitivities
- Risk-Off Shockp 0.95 · eff -20%
- Inflation Reaccelerationp 0.76 · eff -14.2%
- Soft Landingp 0.25 · eff -12%
Heuristic scenario sensitivity; not a macro world model or counterfactual simulation.