VALUE MANAGER
55.9No clear value dislocation from price path alone.
Mean-revert gap -7.4%.
BIST · 2026-08-28
BIMAS — NO_ACTION
BİM Mağazalar · operator [email protected]
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Outcome review · Learning Engine · Signal history
Scores
- prediction: 55.6
- confidence: 34.9
- opportunity: 45.2
- timing: 67.2
- portfolio fit: 5.0
Bull Case
BIMAS · (BİM Mağazalar) · Consumer Staples · Retail: tape regime constructive (5d 0.7%, 20d 8.0%). Continuation works if realized vol stays normal-high and drawdown holds near 13.8%. Lead model Ensemble (6 models) assigns p(up)=0.56; portfolio fit 5.0 with position not held.
Bear Case
BIMAS: trend failure if 5d/20d reverse from regime constructive; watch drawdown 13.8%. Risk stack vol=80.7 · dd=45.9 · liq=0.0 · sector=82.5 → total 58.4.
Ensemble & Uncertainty
- consensus p(up): 0.556
- agreement: 91.0
- dispersion: 0.022
- calibrated conf: 0.349
- risk of wrong: 0.651
- data quality: 82.9
- 1d p10–p90: 0.060 → 0.060
- 5d p10–p90: — → —
source: QBMosaic weighted ensembleproxy / heuristicas of 2026-08-28 14:55 UTC
Same-as-of model votes weighted by learned StockModel weights, then gated by calibration, agreement and data quality.
Point-in-Time Intraday Timing
- availability: ELIGIBLE
- readiness: 86.3
- session: 2026-08-28
- activity: LOW
- RVOL-T: 0.86
- deviation: 0.62pp
- Observed 5-minute quality 100.0 with 44 complete sessions
- low activity (6.3) and RVOL-T 0.86
- Path deviation 0.62pp versus the 20-session median
source: Yahoo Finance observed 5-minute barsproxy / heuristicas of 2026-08-28 14:55 UTC
Quality-, freshness- and sample-gated timing readiness. Volume, activity and deviation are non-directional and never change BUY into AVOID.
DQS contribution
daily 34.9 · models 25.0 · intraday 20.0 · settled 3.0
Why Not?
- Calibrated confidence is below 45%
Catalysts
Yahoo path features (n=90) · asOf=2026-08-27 · model=Ensemble (6 models) · p(up)=0.56 · regime=constructive · vol=normal-high · fit=5.0 · not held · sector=Consumer Staples · evidence=no verified research evidence
Invalidation
Invalidate if total market risk > 68.4, drawdown extends beyond 18.8%, or 5d return worsens by >3pp without 20d repair. Liquidity score > 25.0 also voids size-up.
Key Assumptions
Rule thesis over Yahoo closes (sample 90). Mean-revert proxy -7.4%. Intraday timing ELIGIBLE at 86.3; activity is non-directional. Verified evidence count 0; unverified imports are excluded. No live LLM; committee text is numeric templates. XK030/sharia screens are membership-only — not a fundamental audit.
Exit Conditions
Wait for clearer 5d/20d alignment. No new risk until confidence and fit both improve.
Paper Position
Replay Closure
snapshot 2026-08-27 · outcomes 3/2 · journals 0
- 1d PROTECTED · 0.42%
- 3d PROTECTED · -1.33%
- 5d PROTECTED · -0.24%
Decision Evidence Pack
No verified point-in-time research evidence was attached to this decision.
AI Committee
GROWTH MANAGER
50.8Growth case needs stronger directional odds.
p(up)=0.56 from Ensemble (6 models) · Retail.
MACRO MANAGER
49.6Intermediate trend still constructive.
20d regime 8.0% with vol 32.3% · Consumer Staples. No verified financial/news/disclosure evidence.
TECHNICAL MANAGER
54.0Momentum tape supports a long bias (constructive).
5d 0.7% / 20d 8.0%; mean-revert -7.4%. Intraday timing ELIGIBLE 86.3; low activity (6.3) and RVOL-T 0.86.
RISK MANAGER
36.6Risk inside tolerance for selective exposure.
Total 58.4 · volR 80.7 · ddR 45.9 · ann.vol 32.3%.
SENTIMENT MANAGER
34.9Conviction thin — crowd confirmation missing.
Confidence 34.9; decision NO_ACTION. No verified financial/news/disclosure evidence.
CIO MANAGER
51.8Aggregate call: NO_ACTION.
Opp 45.2 · fit 5.0 · risk 58.4 · not held.