VALUE MANAGER
52.0No clear value dislocation from price path alone.
Mean-revert gap -2.5%.
BIST · 2026-08-28
TUKAS — NO_ACTION
Tukaş · operator [email protected]
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Outcome review · Learning Engine · Signal history
Scores
- prediction: 51.1
- confidence: 34.4
- opportunity: 41.2
- timing: 68.1
- portfolio fit: 5.0
Bull Case
TUKAS · (Tukaş) · Consumer Staples · Food: tape regime constructive (5d 0.0%, 20d 2.5%). Continuation works if realized vol stays normal-high and drawdown holds near 29.6%. Lead model Ensemble (6 models) assigns p(up)=0.51; portfolio fit 5.0 with position not held.
Bear Case
TUKAS: trend failure if 5d/20d reverse from regime constructive; watch drawdown 29.6%. Risk stack vol=73.1 · dd=98.8 · liq=0.0 · sector=70.0 → total 69.4.
Ensemble & Uncertainty
- consensus p(up): 0.511
- agreement: 96.6
- dispersion: 0.008
- calibrated conf: 0.344
- risk of wrong: 0.656
- data quality: 82.9
- 1d p10–p90: -0.010 → -0.010
- 5d p10–p90: — → —
source: QBMosaic weighted ensembleproxy / heuristicas of 2026-08-28 14:55 UTC
Same-as-of model votes weighted by learned StockModel weights, then gated by calibration, agreement and data quality.
Point-in-Time Intraday Timing
- availability: ELIGIBLE
- readiness: 84.5
- session: 2026-08-28
- activity: HIGH
- RVOL-T: 1.67
- deviation: 2.97pp
- Observed 5-minute quality 100.0 with 44 complete sessions
- high activity (97.2) and RVOL-T 1.67
- Path deviation 2.97pp versus the 20-session median
source: Yahoo Finance observed 5-minute barsproxy / heuristicas of 2026-08-28 14:55 UTC
Quality-, freshness- and sample-gated timing readiness. Volume, activity and deviation are non-directional and never change BUY into AVOID.
DQS contribution
daily 34.9 · models 25.0 · intraday 20.0 · settled 3.0
Why Not?
- Calibrated confidence is below 45%
Catalysts
Yahoo path features (n=90) · asOf=2026-08-27 · model=Ensemble (6 models) · p(up)=0.51 · regime=constructive · vol=normal-high · fit=5.0 · not held · sector=Consumer Staples · evidence=no verified research evidence
Invalidation
Invalidate if total market risk > 79.4, drawdown extends beyond 34.6%, or 5d return worsens by >3pp without 20d repair. Liquidity score > 25.0 also voids size-up.
Key Assumptions
Rule thesis over Yahoo closes (sample 90). Mean-revert proxy -2.5%. Intraday timing ELIGIBLE at 84.5; activity is non-directional. Verified evidence count 0; unverified imports are excluded. No live LLM; committee text is numeric templates. XK030/sharia screens are membership-only — not a fundamental audit.
Exit Conditions
Wait for clearer 5d/20d alignment. No new risk until confidence and fit both improve.
Paper Position
Replay Closure
snapshot 2026-08-27 · outcomes 3/2 · journals 0
- 1d PROTECTED · 1.98%
- 3d PROTECTED · -0.50%
- 5d MISSED_MOVE · -4.46%
Decision Evidence Pack
No verified point-in-time research evidence was attached to this decision.
AI Committee
GROWTH MANAGER
46.7Growth case needs stronger directional odds.
p(up)=0.51 from Ensemble (6 models) · Food.
MACRO MANAGER
44.7Intermediate trend still constructive.
20d regime 2.5% with vol 29.3% · Consumer Staples. No verified financial/news/disclosure evidence.
TECHNICAL MANAGER
51.0Momentum tape supports a long bias (constructive).
5d 0.0% / 20d 2.5%; mean-revert -2.5%. Intraday timing ELIGIBLE 84.5; high activity (97.2) and RVOL-T 1.67.
RISK MANAGER
25.6Risk inside tolerance for selective exposure.
Total 69.4 · volR 73.1 · ddR 98.8 · ann.vol 29.3%.
SENTIMENT MANAGER
34.4Conviction thin — crowd confirmation missing.
Confidence 34.4; decision NO_ACTION. No verified financial/news/disclosure evidence.
CIO MANAGER
51.1Aggregate call: NO_ACTION.
Opp 41.2 · fit 5.0 · risk 69.4 · not held.