VALUE MANAGER
65.4No clear value dislocation from price path alone.
Mean-revert gap -19.3%.
BIST · 2026-08-28
ASELS — WATCH
Aselsan · operator [email protected]
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Outcome review · Learning Engine · Signal history
Scores
- prediction: 66.0
- confidence: 62.8
- opportunity: 51.7
- timing: 75.5
- portfolio fit: 5.0
Bull Case
ASELS · (Aselsan) · Technology · Defense Electronics: tape regime constructive (5d 0.4%, 20d 19.6%). Continuation works if realized vol stays elevated and drawdown holds near 22.5%. Lead model Ensemble (6 models) assigns p(up)=0.66; portfolio fit 5.0 with position not held.
Bear Case
ASELS: elevated vol (49.9%) and max drawdown 22.5% compress edge — false breakouts likely. Risk stack vol=100.0 · dd=75.1 · liq=0.0 · sector=100.0 → total 77.5.
Ensemble & Uncertainty
- consensus p(up): 0.660
- agreement: 75.9
- dispersion: 0.060
- calibrated conf: 0.628
- risk of wrong: 0.372
- data quality: 95.4
- 1d p10–p90: -0.020 → 0.007
- 5d p10–p90: 0.095 → 0.095
source: QBMosaic weighted ensembleproxy / heuristicas of 2026-08-28 14:55 UTC
Same-as-of model votes weighted by learned StockModel weights, then gated by calibration, agreement and data quality.
Point-in-Time Intraday Timing
- availability: ELIGIBLE
- readiness: 87.0
- session: 2026-08-28
- activity: LOW
- RVOL-T: 0.82
- deviation: 0.25pp
- Observed 5-minute quality 100.0 with 44 complete sessions
- low activity (13.8) and RVOL-T 0.82
- Path deviation 0.25pp versus the 20-session median
source: Yahoo Finance observed 5-minute barsproxy / heuristicas of 2026-08-28 14:55 UTC
Quality-, freshness- and sample-gated timing readiness. Volume, activity and deviation are non-directional and never change BUY into AVOID.
DQS contribution
daily 34.9 · models 25.0 · intraday 20.0 · settled 15.5
Why Not?
No hard NO_ACTION gate fired.
Catalysts
Yahoo path features (n=90) · asOf=2026-08-27 · model=Ensemble (6 models) · p(up)=0.66 · regime=constructive · vol=elevated · fit=5.0 · not held · sector=Technology · evidence=no verified research evidence
Invalidation
Invalidate if total market risk > 87.5, drawdown extends beyond 27.5%, or 5d return worsens by >3pp without 20d repair. Liquidity score > 25.0 also voids size-up.
Key Assumptions
Rule thesis over Yahoo closes (sample 90). Mean-revert proxy -19.3%. Intraday timing ELIGIBLE at 87.0; activity is non-directional. Verified evidence count 0; unverified imports are excluded. No live LLM; committee text is numeric templates. XK030/sharia screens are membership-only — not a fundamental audit.
Exit Conditions
Stay on watch until p(up)≥0.58 and opportunity clears risk gates without vol spike. Re-check after next Yahoo settle (1d/3d/5d).
Paper Position
Replay Closure
snapshot 2026-08-27 · outcomes 3/2 · journals 0
- 1d NEUTRAL · 0.06%
- 3d RISK_AVOIDED · -4.77%
- 5d RISK_AVOIDED · -5.82%
Decision Evidence Pack
No verified point-in-time research evidence was attached to this decision.
AI Committee
GROWTH MANAGER
58.5Growth path asymmetric if continuation holds.
p(up)=0.66 from Ensemble (6 models) · Defense Electronics.
MACRO MANAGER
57.6Intermediate trend still constructive.
20d regime 19.6% with vol 49.9% · Technology. No verified financial/news/disclosure evidence.
TECHNICAL MANAGER
58.3Momentum tape supports a long bias (constructive).
5d 0.4% / 20d 19.6%; mean-revert -19.3%. Intraday timing ELIGIBLE 87.0; low activity (13.8) and RVOL-T 0.82.
RISK MANAGER
17.5Risk budget strained — size down or avoid.
Total 77.5 · volR 100.0 · ddR 75.1 · ann.vol 49.9%.
SENTIMENT MANAGER
62.8Signal confidence supportive.
Confidence 62.8; decision WATCH. No verified financial/news/disclosure evidence.
CIO MANAGER
56.1Aggregate call: WATCH.
Opp 51.7 · fit 5.0 · risk 77.5 · not held.