VALUE MANAGER
52.3No clear value dislocation from price path alone.
Mean-revert gap -2.9%.
BIST · 2026-10-28
ASELS — WATCH
Aselsan · operator [email protected]
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Outcome review · Learning Engine · Signal history
Scores
- prediction: 54.2
- confidence: 61.0
- opportunity: 46.5
- timing: 71.8
- portfolio fit: 5.0
Bull Case
ASELS · (Aselsan) · Technology · Defense Electronics: tape regime strong-up (5d 3.7%, 20d 6.5%). Continuation works if realized vol stays extreme and drawdown holds near 20.2%. Lead model Ensemble (6 models) assigns p(up)=0.54; portfolio fit 5.0 with position not held.
Bear Case
ASELS: extreme vol (51.4%) and max drawdown 20.2% compress edge — false breakouts likely. Risk stack vol=100.0 · dd=67.5 · liq=0.0 · sector=100.0 → total 75.2.
Ensemble & Uncertainty
- consensus p(up): 0.542
- agreement: 75.7
- dispersion: 0.061
- calibrated conf: 0.610
- risk of wrong: 0.390
- data quality: 95.2
- 1d p10–p90: -0.020 → 0.057
- 5d p10–p90: 0.028 → 0.095
source: QBMosaic weighted ensembleproxy / heuristicas of 2026-10-28 09:35 UTC
Same-as-of model votes weighted by learned StockModel weights, then gated by calibration, agreement and data quality.
Point-in-Time Intraday Timing
- availability: INSUFFICIENT
- readiness: —
- session: 2026-10-28
- activity: HIGH
- RVOL-T: 1.69
- deviation: 3.98pp
- Current intraday quality 32.3 is below 60
source: Yahoo Finance observed 5-minute barsproxy / heuristicas of 2026-10-28 09:35 UTC
Quality-, freshness- and sample-gated timing readiness. Volume, activity and deviation are non-directional and never change BUY into AVOID.
DQS contribution
daily 35.0 · models 25.0 · intraday 15.2 · settled 20.0
- 1 intraday sessions are incomplete
Why Not?
No hard NO_ACTION gate fired.
Catalysts
Yahoo path features (n=90) · asOf=2026-10-28 · model=Ensemble (6 models) · p(up)=0.54 · regime=strong-up · vol=extreme · fit=5.0 · not held · sector=Technology · evidence=no verified research evidence
Invalidation
Invalidate if total market risk > 85.2, drawdown extends beyond 25.2%, or 5d return worsens by >3pp without 20d repair. Liquidity score > 25.0 also voids size-up.
Key Assumptions
Rule thesis over Yahoo closes (sample 90). Mean-revert proxy -2.9%. Intraday timing INSUFFICIENT; activity is non-directional. Verified evidence count 0; unverified imports are excluded. No live LLM; committee text is numeric templates. XK030/sharia screens are membership-only — not a fundamental audit.
Exit Conditions
Stay on watch until p(up)≥0.58 and opportunity clears risk gates without vol spike. Re-check after next Yahoo settle (1d/3d/5d).
Paper Position
Replay Closure
Decision Evidence Pack
No verified point-in-time research evidence was attached to this decision.
AI Committee
GROWTH MANAGER
46.5Growth case needs stronger directional odds.
p(up)=0.54 from Ensemble (6 models) · Defense Electronics.
MACRO MANAGER
44.3Intermediate trend still constructive.
20d regime 6.5% with vol 51.4% · Technology. No verified financial/news/disclosure evidence.
TECHNICAL MANAGER
57.0Momentum tape supports a long bias (strong-up).
5d 3.7% / 20d 6.5%; mean-revert -2.9%. Intraday timing INSUFFICIENT; no eligible observed 5-minute context.
RISK MANAGER
19.8Risk budget strained — size down or avoid.
Total 75.2 · volR 100.0 · ddR 67.5 · ann.vol 51.4%.
SENTIMENT MANAGER
61.0Signal confidence supportive.
Confidence 61.0; decision WATCH. No verified financial/news/disclosure evidence.
CIO MANAGER
53.5Aggregate call: WATCH.
Opp 46.5 · fit 5.0 · risk 75.2 · not held.