VALUE MANAGER
78.7Pullback inside uptrend — value entry window.
Mean-revert gap -35.9%.
BIST · 2026-08-28
TUPRS — NO_ACTION
Tüpraş · operator [email protected]
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Outcome review · Learning Engine · Signal history
Scores
- prediction: 73.4
- confidence: 44.1
- opportunity: 46.0
- timing: 62.4
- portfolio fit: 5.0
Bull Case
TUPRS · (Tüpraş) · Energy · Oil Refining: pullback-in-uptrend (5d -3.7% inside 20d 32.2%). Mean-revert gap -35.9% offers a staged entry if risk score cools. Lead model Ensemble (6 models) assigns p(up)=0.73; portfolio fit 5.0 with position not held.
Bear Case
TUPRS: elevated vol (41.5%) and max drawdown 21.3% compress edge — false breakouts likely. Risk stack vol=100.0 · dd=71.0 · liq=0.0 · sector=100.0 → total 76.3.
Ensemble & Uncertainty
- consensus p(up): 0.734
- agreement: 57.7
- dispersion: 0.106
- calibrated conf: 0.441
- risk of wrong: 0.559
- data quality: 82.8
- 1d p10–p90: 0.014 → 0.014
- 5d p10–p90: — → —
source: QBMosaic weighted ensembleproxy / heuristicas of 2026-08-28 14:55 UTC
Same-as-of model votes weighted by learned StockModel weights, then gated by calibration, agreement and data quality.
Point-in-Time Intraday Timing
- availability: ELIGIBLE
- readiness: 88.8
- session: 2026-08-28
- activity: NORMAL
- RVOL-T: 1.03
- deviation: 3.34pp
- Observed 5-minute quality 100.0 with 44 complete sessions
- normal activity (47.3) and RVOL-T 1.03
- Path deviation 3.34pp versus the 20-session median
source: Yahoo Finance observed 5-minute barsproxy / heuristicas of 2026-08-28 14:55 UTC
Quality-, freshness- and sample-gated timing readiness. Volume, activity and deviation are non-directional and never change BUY into AVOID.
DQS contribution
daily 34.9 · models 25.0 · intraday 19.9 · settled 3.0
Why Not?
- Calibrated confidence is below 45%
Catalysts
Yahoo path features (n=90) · asOf=2026-08-27 · model=Ensemble (6 models) · p(up)=0.73 · regime=pullback-in-uptrend · vol=elevated · fit=5.0 · not held · sector=Energy · evidence=no verified research evidence
Invalidation
Invalidate if total market risk > 86.3, drawdown extends beyond 26.3%, or 5d return worsens by >3pp without 20d repair. Liquidity score > 25.0 also voids size-up.
Key Assumptions
Rule thesis over Yahoo closes (sample 90). Mean-revert proxy -35.9%. Intraday timing ELIGIBLE at 88.8; activity is non-directional. Verified evidence count 0; unverified imports are excluded. No live LLM; committee text is numeric templates. XK030/sharia screens are membership-only — not a fundamental audit.
Exit Conditions
Wait for clearer 5d/20d alignment. No new risk until confidence and fit both improve.
Paper Position
Replay Closure
snapshot 2026-08-27 · outcomes 3/2 · journals 0
- 1d MISSED_MOVE · 4.01%
- 3d MISSED_MOVE · 5.78%
- 5d MISSED_MOVE · 2.69%
Decision Evidence Pack
No verified point-in-time research evidence was attached to this decision.
AI Committee
GROWTH MANAGER
67.2Growth path asymmetric if continuation holds.
p(up)=0.73 from Ensemble (6 models) · Oil Refining.
MACRO MANAGER
71.9Intermediate trend still constructive.
20d regime 32.2% with vol 41.5% · Energy. No verified financial/news/disclosure evidence.
TECHNICAL MANAGER
58.5Tape soft (pullback-in-uptrend) — wait for reclaim.
5d -3.7% / 20d 32.2%; mean-revert -35.9%. Intraday timing ELIGIBLE 88.8; normal activity (47.3) and RVOL-T 1.03.
RISK MANAGER
18.7Risk budget strained — size down or avoid.
Total 76.3 · volR 100.0 · ddR 71.0 · ann.vol 41.5%.
SENTIMENT MANAGER
44.1Conviction thin — crowd confirmation missing.
Confidence 44.1; decision NO_ACTION. No verified financial/news/disclosure evidence.
CIO MANAGER
47.8Aggregate call: NO_ACTION.
Opp 46.0 · fit 5.0 · risk 76.3 · not held.