BIST · 2026-10-28

EUPWR — NO_ACTION

Europower Enerji · operator [email protected]

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Outcome review · Learning Engine · Signal history

NO_ACTIONquality 42.2risk 85.0Open stock intelligence

Scores

prediction: 33.4
confidence: 64.1
opportunity: 30.3
timing: 62.0
portfolio fit: 5.0

Bull Case

EUPWR · (Europower Enerji) · Energy · Power Equipment: bounce inside a soft 20d (-18.2%); treat strength as tactical unless 20d flips positive. Lead model Ensemble (6 models) assigns p(up)=0.33; portfolio fit 5.0 with position not held.

Bear Case

EUPWR: extreme vol (80.1%) and max drawdown 65.7% compress edge — false breakouts likely. Risk stack vol=100.0 · dd=100.0 · liq=0.0 · sector=100.0 → total 85.0.

Ensemble & Uncertainty

consensus p(up): 0.334
agreement: 43.4
dispersion: 0.141
calibrated conf: 0.641
risk of wrong: 0.359
data quality: 92.8
1d p10–p90: -0.033 → -0.011
5d p10–p90: -0.039 → 0.015

source: QBMosaic weighted ensembleproxy / heuristicas of 2026-10-28 09:35 UTC

Same-as-of model votes weighted by learned StockModel weights, then gated by calibration, agreement and data quality.

Point-in-Time Intraday Timing

availability: INSUFFICIENT
readiness: —
session: 2026-10-28
activity: HIGH
RVOL-T: 0.95
deviation: 2.47pp

Current intraday quality 32.3 is below 60

source: Yahoo Finance observed 5-minute barsproxy / heuristicas of 2026-10-28 09:35 UTC

Quality-, freshness- and sample-gated timing readiness. Volume, activity and deviation are non-directional and never change BUY into AVOID.

DQS contribution

daily 34.6 · models 25.0 · intraday 15.2 · settled 18.0

1 intraday sessions are incomplete

Why Not?

Model dispersion is above the agreement gate

Catalysts

Yahoo path features (n=90) · asOf=2026-10-28 · model=Ensemble (6 models) · p(up)=0.33 · regime=bounce-in-downtrend · vol=extreme · fit=5.0 · not held · sector=Energy · evidence=no verified research evidence

Invalidation

Invalidate if total market risk > 95.0, drawdown extends beyond 70.7%, or 5d return worsens by >3pp without 20d repair. Liquidity score > 25.0 also voids size-up.

Key Assumptions

Rule thesis over Yahoo closes (sample 90). Mean-revert proxy 23.1%. Intraday timing INSUFFICIENT; activity is non-directional. Verified evidence count 0; unverified imports are excluded. No live LLM; committee text is numeric templates. XK030/sharia screens are membership-only — not a fundamental audit.

Exit Conditions

Wait for clearer 5d/20d alignment. No new risk until confidence and fit both improve.

Paper Position

Replay Closure

snapshot 2026-10-28 · outcomes 0/2 · journals 0

Open replay journal and lab

Decision Evidence Pack

No verified point-in-time research evidence was attached to this decision.

AI Committee

VALUE MANAGER

31.5

No clear value dislocation from price path alone.

Mean-revert gap 23.1%.

GROWTH MANAGER

21.4

Growth case needs stronger directional odds.

p(up)=0.33 from Ensemble (6 models) · Power Equipment.

MACRO MANAGER

15.0

Intermediate trend pressure argues patience.

20d regime -18.2% with vol 80.1% · Energy. No verified financial/news/disclosure evidence.

TECHNICAL MANAGER

48.7

Momentum tape supports a long bias (bounce-in-downtrend).

5d 5.0% / 20d -18.2%; mean-revert 23.1%. Intraday timing INSUFFICIENT; no eligible observed 5-minute context.

RISK MANAGER

10.0

Risk budget strained — size down or avoid.

Total 85.0 · volR 100.0 · ddR 100.0 · ann.vol 80.1%.

SENTIMENT MANAGER

64.1

Signal confidence supportive.

Confidence 64.1; decision NO_ACTION. No verified financial/news/disclosure evidence.

CIO MANAGER

42.2

Aggregate call: NO_ACTION.

Opp 30.3 · fit 5.0 · risk 85.0 · not held.