BIST · TRY
EKGYO — Emlak Konut GYO
Real Estate · REIT · TR
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Tek hisse için fiyat, risk, adaptive challenger ve nihai Decision Card.
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Predictability · Regime · Risk · Signal Engine
Decision Card
BIST:EKGYO · Emlak Konut GYO
- Güven
- 70
- Optimal ufuk
- 1g
- Predictability
- 50
- Opportunity
- 47
- Beklenen getiri
- +2.1%
- Beklenen downside
- +0.5%
- Rejim
- BEAR:HIGH_VOLATILITY
- Regime güven
- 46
- Risk
- YÜKSEK
- Hesap
- 2026-10-28 09:35
- Veri aralığı
- 2021-10-28 → 2026-10-28
- Tazelik
- 2g önce
- Decision engine
- decision-v1
- Strateji
- Ensemble (6 models)
- Model
- ensemble-heuristic-v1
- Özellik / veri
- adaptive-factor-v1 · yahoo:daily
- EMA OOS
- 36 · CROSS_BELOW · n=48
EKGYO — BEKLE Optimal horizon: 1 gün Predictability: %50 Opportunity Score: 47 Beklenen net hareket: +2.1% Regime: BEAR:HIGH_VOLATILITY · güven %46 Opportunity sürücüleri: Beklenen net getiri, Predictability, Karar opportunity. Sınıf: Güvenilmez. Predictability 50 < 55; istatistiksel avantaj yok. EMA9, EMA36'yı aşağı kesti (bearish crossover). BIST'te short değil; çıkış/BEKLE adayı. Bu sinyal bu seride 48 kez oluştu (filtrelenmiş örnek: 49). 10 bar sonra win rate 40%, medyan getiri -2.7%. Reliability 44 / OOS 36. Karar motoru OOS'a daha çok ağırlık verir. EMA tek başına AL üretmez.
BEKLE, edge oluşana kadar geçerlidir. Predictability ≥ 80 tek başına AL üretmez.
Opportunity bileşenleri
- Predictability50 · w16
- Beklenen net getiri59 · w20
- Karar opportunity36 · w15
- Risk-ayarlı getiri28 · w13
- Regime confidence46 · w11
- Maliyet sonrası dayanıklılık— · w9
- Örnek yeterliliği60 · w8
- EMA crossover (OOS)— · w8
EMA Crossover
- EMA9
- 17.74
- EMA36
- 18.85
- Son crossover
- CROSS BELOW · 8 bar
- Reliability
- 44 / OOS 36
- Win rate
- 40%
- Medyan 10-bar
- -2.7%
- Örnek
- 48
- Profit factor
- 0.65
- Rejim
- HIGH_VOLATILITY · 100%
- MFE / MAE
- 6.7% / -6.3%
Neden? · EKGYO
- EMA9, EMA36'yı aşağı kesti (bearish crossover). BIST'te short değil; çıkış/BEKLE adayı.
- Bu sinyal bu seride 48 kez oluştu (filtrelenmiş örnek: 49).
- 10 bar sonra win rate 40%, medyan getiri -2.7%.
- Reliability 44 / OOS 36. Karar motoru OOS'a daha çok ağırlık verir.
- EMA tek başına AL üretmez.
Whipsaw filtreleri (OOS)
- BASE · seçiliOOS 35 · n=48
- ADX20OOS 26 · n=19
- EMA200OOS 30 · n=26
- VOLUMEOOS 25 · n=25
- RSI50OOS 38 · n=45
- HTF_TRENDOOS 19 · n=17
- SLOPEOOS 38 · n=43
- SEPARATIONOOS 35 · n=10
- ATROOS 34 · n=42
En sağlam yakın çift EMA5/20 (robustness 62). En yüksek in-sample getiri EMA5/20 — bu yüzden seçilmedi.
EKGYO 1d EMA9/36 genel win rate 40%; rejim kırılımı kartın üstünde. Yatay / düşük örnek rejimler BEKLE’ye iter.
Operator Actions
Price
Observed daily OHLCV bars. Yahoo is an unofficial free feed and may be delayed or incomplete.
Yahoo Features
- sample: 120 closes
- ret5: 16.41%
- ret20: 32.44%
- mean-revert gap: -16.04%
- ann. vol: 47.1%
Predictability
50
Volatility
100
Liquidity
100
ret5, ret20, mean-reversion gap and annualized realized volatility; profile scores are market-risk heuristics.
Intraday Pattern · Open = 100
Latest session
17.08 · +0.41%
Same time · previous
+1.31%
5D / 20D median
-0.58% / -0.3%
RVOL-T
1.24×
Time Activity Score
68 / 100
NORMAL
- session: 2026-10-28
- same weekday: -0.71%
- deviation: 0.71 pp
- 5D mean: 0.23% · n=5
- 20D mean: -0.23% · n=20
- volume ratio: 1.24×
- volatility ratio: 1.7×
- complete history: 47
- same-weekday n: 7
- excluded incomplete: 2
Sync quality & outliers
- invalid bars: 0
- duplicate slots: 0
- price outliers: 0
- volume outliers: 0
- average quality: 77.4
- sync duration: 295 ms
Each session is normalized to open=100. Median is primary and dotted mean is auxiliary; incomplete/price-outlier sessions are excluded. RVOL-T compares cumulative volume with prior 20 complete sessions. Activity is not a direction forecast.
Market Risk
- total: 80.1
- volatility: 100
- drawdown: 83.6
- liquidity: 0
- sector: 100
- portfolio: 95
Realized volatility, peak-to-trough drawdown and volume-liquidity heuristics. Sector risk is a profile hint.
Latest Prediction
- model: Momentum
- p(up): 0.264
- E[r]: -0.051
- risk: 0.405
- conf: 0.773
- outcomes: Open
Model-name-specific feature weights; not trained XGBoost/LSTM/Transformer inference. Thin history may use deterministic fallback.
Latest Decision
quality 48.3 · risk 80.1 · fit 5
- consensus p(up): 0.326
- agreement: 65
- dispersion: 0.088
- calibrated conf: 0.7
- risk of wrong: 0.3
- data quality: 93.2
- 1d p10–p90: 0.005 → 0.038
- 5d p10–p90: 0.072 → 0.113
Bull: EKGYO · (Emlak Konut GYO) · Real Estate · REIT: defensive bounce case only — 5d -8.0% / 20d -7.4%. Need reclaim of short-term structure before sizing. Lead model Ensemble (6 models) assigns p(up)=0.33; portfolio fit 5.0 with position not held.
Bear: EKGYO: elevated vol (43.7%) and max drawdown 25.1% compress edge — false breakouts likely. Risk stack vol=100.0 · dd=83.6 · liq=0.0 · sector=100.0 → total 80.1.
Yahoo path features (n=90) · asOf=2026-10-28 · model=Ensemble (6 models) · p(up)=0.33 · regime=strong-down · vol=elevated · fit=5.0 · not held · sector=Real Estate · evidence=no verified research evidence
Invalidation: Invalidate if total market risk > 90.1, drawdown extends beyond 30.1%, or 5d return worsens by >3pp without 20d repair. Liquidity score > 25.0 also voids size-up.
Exit: Remain flat. Re-open only after total risk < 60 and regime leaves strong-down/mixed with rising p(up). Exit any residual on further DD extension.
StockModel-weighted same-as-of ensemble with calibration, agreement and data-quality gates. Empirical intervals are p10–p90 settled returns. Thesis and committee are templates, not live LLM agents.
Yahoo Market Activity Proxy
- flow: -3.61
- accum: 32
- distrib: 68
Market-activity proxy from volume × price × momentum. Not BIST member, BofA/MLB, custody or order-flow data.
Catalyst Timeline
- 2026-03-31 · FINANCIALunverified / excludedimportance 65
EKGYO TTM financial results
Yahoo quote-summary TTM proxy; not an official KAP financial statement
Earnings quality and balance-sheet trajectory · Yahoo Finance Fundamentals Proxy
Only explicitly verified catalyst records are attached to new theses and committee reasoning; unverified imports remain visible but excluded.
Recent Predictions
- Momentump(up) 0.26 · Open
- News Modelp(up) 0.46 · Open
- LSTMp(up) 0.25 · Open
- Macro Modelp(up) 0.27 · Open
- Transformerp(up) 0.25 · Open
Scenario Sensitivities
- Risk-Off Shockp 0.82 · eff -20%
- Soft Landingp 0.29 · eff -8.2%
- Inflation Reaccelerationp 0.54 · eff -7.8%
Heuristic scenario sensitivity; not a macro world model or counterfactual simulation.