BIST · TRY
KRDMD — Kardemir (D)
Materials · Steel · TR
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Tek hisse için fiyat, risk, adaptive challenger ve nihai Decision Card.
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Grafikler gerekçeyi açıklar. Nihai aksiyon Decision Card’daki AL/SAT/TUT/BEKLE’dir.
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Predictability · Regime · Risk · Signal Engine
Decision Card
BIST:KRDMD · Kardemir (D)
- Güven
- 72
- Optimal ufuk
- 1g
- Predictability
- 51
- Opportunity
- 43
- Beklenen getiri
- +0.3%
- Beklenen downside
- -3.5%
- Rejim
- BEAR:HIGH_VOLATILITY
- Regime güven
- 43
- Risk
- YÜKSEK
- Hesap
- 2026-10-28 09:35
- Veri aralığı
- 2021-10-28 → 2026-10-28
- Tazelik
- 2g önce
- Decision engine
- decision-v1
- Strateji
- Ensemble (6 models)
- Model
- ensemble-heuristic-v1
- Özellik / veri
- adaptive-factor-v1 · yahoo:daily
- EMA OOS
- 43 · CROSS_BELOW · n=37
KRDMD — BEKLE Optimal horizon: 1 gün Predictability: %51 Opportunity Score: 43 Beklenen net hareket: +0.3% Regime: BEAR:HIGH_VOLATILITY · güven %43 Opportunity sürücüleri: Beklenen net getiri, Predictability, Karar opportunity. Sınıf: Güvenilmez. Predictability 51 < 55; istatistiksel avantaj yok. EMA9, EMA36'yı aşağı kesti (bearish crossover). BIST'te short değil; çıkış/BEKLE adayı. Bu sinyal bu seride 37 kez oluştu (filtrelenmiş örnek: 37). 10 bar sonra win rate 35%, medyan getiri -3.0%. Reliability 46 / OOS 43. Karar motoru OOS'a daha çok ağırlık verir. En güçlü rejim STRONG_BULL: win rate 50% (n=6). EMA tek başına AL üretmez.
BEKLE, edge oluşana kadar geçerlidir. Predictability ≥ 80 tek başına AL üretmez.
Opportunity bileşenleri
- Predictability51 · w16
- Beklenen net getiri51 · w20
- Karar opportunity32 · w15
- Risk-ayarlı getiri23 · w13
- Regime confidence43 · w11
- Maliyet sonrası dayanıklılık— · w9
- Örnek yeterliliği60 · w8
- EMA crossover (OOS)— · w8
EMA Crossover
- EMA9
- 39.32
- EMA36
- 42.24
- Son crossover
- CROSS BELOW · 15 bar
- Reliability
- 46 / OOS 43
- Win rate
- 35%
- Medyan 10-bar
- -3.0%
- Örnek
- 37
- Profit factor
- 0.80
- Rejim
- STRONG_BULL · 50%
- MFE / MAE
- 7.4% / -5.9%
Neden? · KRDMD
- EMA9, EMA36'yı aşağı kesti (bearish crossover). BIST'te short değil; çıkış/BEKLE adayı.
- Bu sinyal bu seride 37 kez oluştu (filtrelenmiş örnek: 37).
- 10 bar sonra win rate 35%, medyan getiri -3.0%.
- Reliability 46 / OOS 43. Karar motoru OOS'a daha çok ağırlık verir.
- En güçlü rejim STRONG_BULL: win rate 50% (n=6).
- EMA tek başına AL üretmez.
Whipsaw filtreleri (OOS)
- BASE · seçiliOOS 43 · n=37
- ADX20OOS 32 · n=16
- EMA200OOS 36 · n=26
- VOLUMEOOS 40 · n=19
- RSI50OOS 43 · n=37
- HTF_TRENDOOS 35 · n=14
- SLOPEOOS 39 · n=36
- SEPARATIONOOS 17 · n=13
- ATROOS 41 · n=30
En sağlam yakın çift EMA5/20 (robustness 64). En yüksek in-sample getiri EMA5/20 — bu yüzden seçilmedi.
KRDMD 1d EMA9/36 genel win rate 35%; rejim kırılımı kartın üstünde. Yatay / düşük örnek rejimler BEKLE’ye iter.
Operator Actions
Price
Observed daily OHLCV bars. Yahoo is an unofficial free feed and may be delayed or incomplete.
Yahoo Features
- sample: 120 closes
- ret5: 1.33%
- ret20: 6.94%
- mean-revert gap: -5.61%
- ann. vol: 25.9%
Predictability
51
Volatility
100
Liquidity
100
ret5, ret20, mean-reversion gap and annualized realized volatility; profile scores are market-risk heuristics.
Intraday Pattern · Open = 100
Latest session
37.56 · -0.11%
Same time · previous
+3.33%
5D / 20D median
1.82% / -0.4%
RVOL-T
0.45×
Time Activity Score
17 / 100
LOW
- session: 2026-10-28
- same weekday: 0.46%
- deviation: 0.3 pp
- 5D mean: 0.19% · n=5
- 20D mean: -0.55% · n=20
- volume ratio: 0.45×
- volatility ratio: 0.96×
- complete history: 47
- same-weekday n: 7
- excluded incomplete: 2
Sync quality & outliers
- invalid bars: 0
- duplicate slots: 0
- price outliers: 0
- volume outliers: 0
- average quality: 77.4
- sync duration: 274 ms
Each session is normalized to open=100. Median is primary and dotted mean is auxiliary; incomplete/price-outlier sessions are excluded. RVOL-T compares cumulative volume with prior 20 complete sessions. Activity is not a direction forecast.
Market Risk
- total: 79.1
- volatility: 100
- drawdown: 80.2
- liquidity: 0
- sector: 100
- portfolio: 95
Realized volatility, peak-to-trough drawdown and volume-liquidity heuristics. Sector risk is a profile hint.
Latest Prediction
- model: Momentum
- p(up): 0.182
- E[r]: -0.077
- risk: 0.465
- conf: 0.83
- outcomes: Open
Model-name-specific feature weights; not trained XGBoost/LSTM/Transformer inference. Thin history may use deterministic fallback.
Latest Decision
quality 45.9 · risk 79.1 · fit 5
- consensus p(up): 0.261
- agreement: 56.9
- dispersion: 0.108
- calibrated conf: 0.719
- risk of wrong: 0.281
- data quality: 93.2
- 1d p10–p90: -0.036 → 0.041
- 5d p10–p90: -0.009 → 0.021
Bull: KRDMD · (Kardemir (D)) · Materials · Steel: defensive bounce case only — 5d -10.7% / 20d -14.6%. Need reclaim of short-term structure before sizing. Lead model Ensemble (6 models) assigns p(up)=0.26; portfolio fit 5.0 with position not held.
Bear: KRDMD: elevated vol (47.1%) and max drawdown 24.1% compress edge — false breakouts likely. Risk stack vol=100.0 · dd=80.2 · liq=0.0 · sector=100.0 → total 79.0.
Yahoo path features (n=90) · asOf=2026-10-28 · model=Ensemble (6 models) · p(up)=0.26 · regime=strong-down · vol=elevated · fit=5.0 · not held · sector=Materials · evidence=no verified research evidence
Invalidation: Invalidate if total market risk > 89.0, drawdown extends beyond 29.0%, or 5d return worsens by >3pp without 20d repair. Liquidity score > 25.0 also voids size-up.
Exit: Remain flat. Re-open only after total risk < 60 and regime leaves strong-down/mixed with rising p(up). Exit any residual on further DD extension.
StockModel-weighted same-as-of ensemble with calibration, agreement and data-quality gates. Empirical intervals are p10–p90 settled returns. Thesis and committee are templates, not live LLM agents.
Yahoo Market Activity Proxy
- flow: -3.67
- accum: 31.6
- distrib: 68.4
Market-activity proxy from volume × price × momentum. Not BIST member, BofA/MLB, custody or order-flow data.
Catalyst Timeline
- 2026-06-30 · FINANCIALunverified / excludedimportance 65
KRDMD TTM financial results
Yahoo quote-summary TTM proxy; not an official KAP financial statement
Earnings quality and balance-sheet trajectory · Yahoo Finance Fundamentals Proxy
Only explicitly verified catalyst records are attached to new theses and committee reasoning; unverified imports remain visible but excluded.
Recent Predictions
- Momentump(up) 0.18 · Open
- News Modelp(up) 0.44 · Open
- LSTMp(up) 0.18 · Open
- Macro Modelp(up) 0.18 · Open
- Transformerp(up) 0.18 · Open
Scenario Sensitivities
- Risk-Off Shockp 0.84 · eff -20%
- Soft Landingp 0.27 · eff -12%
- Inflation Reaccelerationp 0.64 · eff -10.8%
Heuristic scenario sensitivity; not a macro world model or counterfactual simulation.