BIST · TRY
CANTE — Can2 Termik
Energy · Utilities · TR
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Predictability · Regime · Risk · Signal Engine
Decision Card
BIST:CANTE · Can2 Termik
- Güven
- 69
- Optimal ufuk
- 1g
- Predictability
- 47
- Opportunity
- 41
- Beklenen getiri
- +0.0%
- Beklenen downside
- -2.4%
- Rejim
- BEAR:HIGH_VOLATILITY
- Regime güven
- 49
- Risk
- YÜKSEK
- Hesap
- 2026-10-28 09:35
- Veri aralığı
- 2021-10-28 → 2026-10-28
- Tazelik
- 2g önce
- Decision engine
- decision-v1
- Strateji
- Ensemble (6 models)
- Model
- ensemble-heuristic-v1
- Özellik / veri
- adaptive-factor-v1 · yahoo:daily
- EMA OOS
- 51 · CROSS_BELOW · n=27
CANTE — BEKLE Optimal horizon: 1 gün Predictability: %47 Opportunity Score: 41 Beklenen net hareket: +0.0% Regime: BEAR:HIGH_VOLATILITY · güven %49 Opportunity sürücüleri: Beklenen net getiri, Predictability, Karar opportunity. Sınıf: Güvenilmez. Predictability 47 < 55; istatistiksel avantaj yok. EMA9, EMA36'yı aşağı kesti (bearish crossover). BIST'te short değil; çıkış/BEKLE adayı. Bu sinyal bu seride 27 kez oluştu (filtrelenmiş örnek: 27). 10 bar sonra win rate 52%, medyan getiri 1.0%. Reliability 56 / OOS 51. Karar motoru OOS'a daha çok ağırlık verir. EMA tek başına AL üretmez.
BEKLE, edge oluşana kadar geçerlidir. Predictability ≥ 80 tek başına AL üretmez.
Opportunity bileşenleri
- Predictability47 · w16
- Beklenen net getiri50 · w20
- Karar opportunity37 · w15
- Risk-ayarlı getiri20 · w13
- Regime confidence49 · w11
- Maliyet sonrası dayanıklılık— · w9
- Örnek yeterliliği60 · w8
- EMA crossover (OOS)18 · w8
EMA Crossover
- EMA9
- 0.98
- EMA36
- 1.08
- Son crossover
- CROSS BELOW · 27 bar
- Reliability
- 56 / OOS 51
- Win rate
- 52%
- Medyan 10-bar
- 1.0%
- Örnek
- 27
- Profit factor
- 1.14
- Rejim
- LOW_VOLATILITY · 100%
- MFE / MAE
- 9.1% / -5.6%
Neden? · CANTE
- EMA9, EMA36'yı aşağı kesti (bearish crossover). BIST'te short değil; çıkış/BEKLE adayı.
- Bu sinyal bu seride 27 kez oluştu (filtrelenmiş örnek: 27).
- 10 bar sonra win rate 52%, medyan getiri 1.0%.
- Reliability 56 / OOS 51. Karar motoru OOS'a daha çok ağırlık verir.
- EMA tek başına AL üretmez.
Whipsaw filtreleri (OOS)
- BASE · seçiliOOS 51 · n=27
- ADX20OOS 35 · n=16
- EMA200OOS 35 · n=11
- VOLUMEOOS 35 · n=13
- RSI50OOS 51 · n=27
- HTF_TRENDOOS 35 · n=11
- SLOPEOOS 51 · n=27
- SEPARATIONOOS 35 · n=13
- ATROOS 35 · n=8
En sağlam yakın çift EMA10/30 (robustness 67). En yüksek in-sample getiri EMA50/200 — bu yüzden seçilmedi.
CANTE 1d EMA9/36 genel win rate 52%; rejim kırılımı kartın üstünde. Yatay / düşük örnek rejimler BEKLE’ye iter.
Operator Actions
Price
Observed daily OHLCV bars. Yahoo is an unofficial free feed and may be delayed or incomplete.
Yahoo Features
- sample: 120 closes
- ret5: 16.91%
- ret20: 52.38%
- mean-revert gap: -35.47%
- ann. vol: 50.8%
Predictability
47
Volatility
100
Liquidity
100
ret5, ret20, mean-reversion gap and annualized realized volatility; profile scores are market-risk heuristics.
Intraday Pattern · Open = 100
Latest session
0.95 · -2.06%
Same time · previous
+1.04%
5D / 20D median
0% / 0%
RVOL-T
0.33×
Time Activity Score
56 / 100
NORMAL
- session: 2026-10-28
- same weekday: -0.81%
- deviation: -2.06 pp
- 5D mean: -0.2% · n=5
- 20D mean: -0.08% · n=20
- volume ratio: 0.33×
- volatility ratio: 1.31×
- complete history: 46
- same-weekday n: 7
- excluded incomplete: 3
Sync quality & outliers
- invalid bars: 0
- duplicate slots: 0
- price outliers: 0
- volume outliers: 0
- average quality: 77.4
- sync duration: 504 ms
Each session is normalized to open=100. Median is primary and dotted mean is auxiliary; incomplete/price-outlier sessions are excluded. RVOL-T compares cumulative volume with prior 20 complete sessions. Activity is not a direction forecast.
Market Risk
- total: 85
- volatility: 100
- drawdown: 100
- liquidity: 0
- sector: 100
- portfolio: 95
Realized volatility, peak-to-trough drawdown and volume-liquidity heuristics. Sector risk is a profile hint.
Latest Prediction
- model: Momentum
- p(up): 0.398
- E[r]: -0.023
- risk: 0.413
- conf: 0.699
- outcomes: Open
Model-name-specific feature weights; not trained XGBoost/LSTM/Transformer inference. Thin history may use deterministic fallback.
Latest Decision
quality 49.6 · risk 85 · fit 5
- consensus p(up): 0.378
- agreement: 70
- dispersion: 0.075
- calibrated conf: 0.688
- risk of wrong: 0.312
- data quality: 93.2
- 1d p10–p90: -0.024 → 0.025
- 5d p10–p90: 0 → 0.008
Bull: CANTE · (Can2 Termik) · Energy · Utilities: defensive bounce case only — 5d -2.1% / 20d -6.9%. Need reclaim of short-term structure before sizing. Lead model Ensemble (6 models) assigns p(up)=0.38; portfolio fit 5.0 with position not held.
Bear: CANTE: elevated vol (45.6%) and max drawdown 32.1% compress edge — false breakouts likely. Risk stack vol=100.0 · dd=100.0 · liq=0.0 · sector=100.0 → total 85.0.
Yahoo path features (n=90) · asOf=2026-10-28 · model=Ensemble (6 models) · p(up)=0.38 · regime=mixed · vol=elevated · fit=5.0 · not held · sector=Energy · evidence=no verified research evidence
Invalidation: Invalidate if total market risk > 95.0, drawdown extends beyond 37.1%, or 5d return worsens by >3pp without 20d repair. Liquidity score > 25.0 also voids size-up.
Exit: Remain flat. Re-open only after total risk < 60 and regime leaves strong-down/mixed with rising p(up). Exit any residual on further DD extension.
StockModel-weighted same-as-of ensemble with calibration, agreement and data-quality gates. Empirical intervals are p10–p90 settled returns. Thesis and committee are templates, not live LLM agents.
Yahoo Market Activity Proxy
- flow: -2
- accum: 40
- distrib: 60
Market-activity proxy from volume × price × momentum. Not BIST member, BofA/MLB, custody or order-flow data.
Catalyst Timeline
- 2026-03-31 · FINANCIALunverified / excludedimportance 65
CANTE TTM financial results
Yahoo quote-summary TTM proxy; not an official KAP financial statement
Earnings quality and balance-sheet trajectory · Yahoo Finance Fundamentals Proxy
Only explicitly verified catalyst records are attached to new theses and committee reasoning; unverified imports remain visible but excluded.
Recent Predictions
- Momentump(up) 0.4 · Open
- News Modelp(up) 0.48 · Open
- LSTMp(up) 0.3 · Open
- Macro Modelp(up) 0.27 · Open
- Transformerp(up) 0.3 · Open
Scenario Sensitivities
- Risk-Off Shockp 0.87 · eff -20%
- Inflation Reaccelerationp 0.54 · eff -7.9%
- Soft Landingp 0.28 · eff -6.8%
Heuristic scenario sensitivity; not a macro world model or counterfactual simulation.