BIST · TRY
GENIL — Gen İlaç
Health Care · Pharmaceuticals · TR
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Tek hisse için fiyat, risk, adaptive challenger ve nihai Decision Card.
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Predictability · Regime · Risk · Signal Engine
Decision Card
BIST:GENIL · Gen İlaç
- Güven
- 80
- Optimal ufuk
- 1g
- Predictability
- 47
- Opportunity
- 41
- Beklenen getiri
- +0.1%
- Beklenen downside
- -1.7%
- Rejim
- BEAR:HIGH_VOLATILITY
- Regime güven
- 41
- Risk
- YÜKSEK
- Hesap
- 2026-10-28 09:35
- Veri aralığı
- 2021-10-28 → 2026-10-28
- Tazelik
- 2g önce
- Decision engine
- decision-v1
- Strateji
- Ensemble (6 models)
- Model
- ensemble-heuristic-v1
- Özellik / veri
- adaptive-factor-v1 · yahoo:daily
- EMA OOS
- 42 · CROSS_BELOW · n=41
GENIL — BEKLE Optimal horizon: 1 gün Predictability: %47 Opportunity Score: 41 Beklenen net hareket: +0.1% Regime: BEAR:HIGH_VOLATILITY · güven %41 Opportunity sürücüleri: Beklenen net getiri, Predictability, Karar opportunity. Sınıf: Güvenilmez. Predictability 47 < 55; istatistiksel avantaj yok. EMA9, EMA36'yı aşağı kesti (bearish crossover). BIST'te short değil; çıkış/BEKLE adayı. Bu sinyal bu seride 41 kez oluştu (filtrelenmiş örnek: 41). 10 bar sonra win rate 41%, medyan getiri -2.1%. Reliability 51 / OOS 42. Karar motoru OOS'a daha çok ağırlık verir. En güçlü rejim STRONG_BULL: win rate 56% (n=9). EMA tek başına AL üretmez.
BEKLE, edge oluşana kadar geçerlidir. Predictability ≥ 80 tek başına AL üretmez.
Opportunity bileşenleri
- Predictability47 · w16
- Beklenen net getiri50 · w20
- Karar opportunity32 · w15
- Risk-ayarlı getiri21 · w13
- Regime confidence41 · w11
- Maliyet sonrası dayanıklılık— · w9
- Örnek yeterliliği60 · w8
- EMA crossover (OOS)— · w8
EMA Crossover
- EMA9
- 4.13
- EMA36
- 6.04
- Son crossover
- CROSS BELOW · 29 bar
- Reliability
- 51 / OOS 42
- Win rate
- 41%
- Medyan 10-bar
- -2.1%
- Örnek
- 41
- Profit factor
- 1.26
- Rejim
- STRONG_BULL · 56%
- MFE / MAE
- 9.0% / -5.6%
Neden? · GENIL
- EMA9, EMA36'yı aşağı kesti (bearish crossover). BIST'te short değil; çıkış/BEKLE adayı.
- Bu sinyal bu seride 41 kez oluştu (filtrelenmiş örnek: 41).
- 10 bar sonra win rate 41%, medyan getiri -2.1%.
- Reliability 51 / OOS 42. Karar motoru OOS'a daha çok ağırlık verir.
- En güçlü rejim STRONG_BULL: win rate 56% (n=9).
- EMA tek başına AL üretmez.
Whipsaw filtreleri (OOS)
- BASE · seçiliOOS 42 · n=41
- ADX20OOS 55 · n=17
- EMA200OOS 40 · n=18
- VOLUMEOOS 35 · n=17
- RSI50OOS 42 · n=41
- HTF_TRENDOOS 27 · n=16
- SLOPEOOS 43 · n=40
- SEPARATIONOOS 35 · n=8
- ATROOS 40 · n=36
En sağlam yakın çift EMA5/20 (robustness 66). En yüksek in-sample getiri EMA50/200 — bu yüzden seçilmedi.
GENIL 1d EMA9/36 genel win rate 41%; rejim kırılımı kartın üstünde. Yatay / düşük örnek rejimler BEKLE’ye iter.
Operator Actions
Price
Observed daily OHLCV bars. Yahoo is an unofficial free feed and may be delayed or incomplete.
Yahoo Features
- sample: 120 closes
- ret5: 5.57%
- ret20: 12.36%
- mean-revert gap: -6.8%
- ann. vol: 37.3%
Predictability
47
Volatility
100
Liquidity
100
ret5, ret20, mean-reversion gap and annualized realized volatility; profile scores are market-risk heuristics.
Intraday Pattern · Open = 100
Latest session
3.7 · +0%
Same time · previous
-2.76%
5D / 20D median
-0.51% / -0.16%
RVOL-T
1.74×
Time Activity Score
66 / 100
NORMAL
- session: 2026-10-28
- same weekday: -0.51%
- deviation: 0.16 pp
- 5D mean: -1.33% · n=5
- 20D mean: 0.16% · n=20
- volume ratio: 1.74×
- volatility ratio: 1.79×
- complete history: 47
- same-weekday n: 7
- excluded incomplete: 2
Sync quality & outliers
- invalid bars: 0
- duplicate slots: 0
- price outliers: 0
- volume outliers: 1
- average quality: 77.3
- sync duration: 209 ms
Each session is normalized to open=100. Median is primary and dotted mean is auxiliary; incomplete/price-outlier sessions are excluded. RVOL-T compares cumulative volume with prior 20 complete sessions. Activity is not a direction forecast.
Market Risk
- total: 85
- volatility: 100
- drawdown: 100
- liquidity: 0
- sector: 100
- portfolio: 95
Realized volatility, peak-to-trough drawdown and volume-liquidity heuristics. Sector risk is a profile hint.
Latest Prediction
- model: Momentum
- p(up): 0.18
- E[r]: -0.1
- risk: 0.55
- conf: 0.918
- outcomes: Open
Model-name-specific feature weights; not trained XGBoost/LSTM/Transformer inference. Thin history may use deterministic fallback.
Latest Decision
quality 47.3 · risk 85 · fit 5
- consensus p(up): 0.227
- agreement: 62.6
- dispersion: 0.094
- calibrated conf: 0.804
- risk of wrong: 0.196
- data quality: 92
- 1d p10–p90: -0.017 → 0.019
- 5d p10–p90: 0.046 → 0.07
Bull: GENIL · (Gen İlaç) · Health Care · Pharmaceuticals: defensive bounce case only — 5d -11.3% / 20d -36.8%. Need reclaim of short-term structure before sizing. Lead model Ensemble (6 models) assigns p(up)=0.23; portfolio fit 5.0 with position not held.
Bear: GENIL: extreme vol (76.8%) and max drawdown 70.0% compress edge — false breakouts likely. Risk stack vol=100.0 · dd=100.0 · liq=0.0 · sector=100.0 → total 85.0.
Yahoo path features (n=90) · asOf=2026-10-28 · model=Ensemble (6 models) · p(up)=0.23 · regime=strong-down · vol=extreme · fit=5.0 · not held · sector=Health Care · evidence=no verified research evidence
Invalidation: Invalidate if total market risk > 95.0, drawdown extends beyond 75.0%, or 5d return worsens by >3pp without 20d repair. Liquidity score > 25.0 also voids size-up.
Exit: Remain flat. Re-open only after total risk < 60 and regime leaves strong-down/mixed with rising p(up). Exit any residual on further DD extension.
StockModel-weighted same-as-of ensemble with calibration, agreement and data-quality gates. Empirical intervals are p10–p90 settled returns. Thesis and committee are templates, not live LLM agents.
Yahoo Market Activity Proxy
- flow: -4.01
- accum: 29.9
- distrib: 70.1
Market-activity proxy from volume × price × momentum. Not BIST member, BofA/MLB, custody or order-flow data.
Catalyst Timeline
- 2026-06-30 · FINANCIALunverified / excludedimportance 65
GENIL TTM financial results
Yahoo quote-summary TTM proxy; not an official KAP financial statement
Earnings quality and balance-sheet trajectory · Yahoo Finance Fundamentals Proxy
Only explicitly verified catalyst records are attached to new theses and committee reasoning; unverified imports remain visible but excluded.
Recent Predictions
- Momentump(up) 0.18 · Open
- News Modelp(up) 0.41 · Open
- LSTMp(up) 0.18 · Open
- Macro Modelp(up) 0.18 · Open
- Transformerp(up) 0.18 · Open
Scenario Sensitivities
- Risk-Off Shockp 0.95 · eff -20%
- Inflation Reaccelerationp 0.9 · eff -15%
- Soft Landingp 0.25 · eff -12%
Heuristic scenario sensitivity; not a macro world model or counterfactual simulation.