BIST · TRY
PETKM — Petkim
Materials · Petrochemicals · TR
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Tek hisse için fiyat, risk, adaptive challenger ve nihai Decision Card.
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Predictability · Regime · Risk · Signal Engine
Decision Card
BIST:PETKM · Petkim
- Güven
- 70
- Optimal ufuk
- 1g
- Predictability
- 47
- Opportunity
- 46
- Beklenen getiri
- +2.5%
- Beklenen downside
- +1.5%
- Rejim
- BEAR:HIGH_VOLATILITY
- Regime güven
- 47
- Risk
- YÜKSEK
- Hesap
- 2026-10-28 09:35
- Veri aralığı
- 2021-10-28 → 2026-10-28
- Tazelik
- 2g önce
- Decision engine
- decision-v1
- Strateji
- Ensemble (6 models)
- Model
- ensemble-heuristic-v1
- Özellik / veri
- adaptive-factor-v1 · yahoo:daily
- EMA OOS
- 28 · CROSS_BELOW · n=41
PETKM — BEKLE Optimal horizon: 1 gün Predictability: %47 Opportunity Score: 46 Beklenen net hareket: +2.5% Regime: BEAR:HIGH_VOLATILITY · güven %47 Opportunity sürücüleri: Beklenen net getiri, Predictability, Karar opportunity. Sınıf: Güvenilmez. Predictability 47 < 55; istatistiksel avantaj yok. EMA9, EMA36'yı aşağı kesti (bearish crossover). BIST'te short değil; çıkış/BEKLE adayı. Bu sinyal bu seride 41 kez oluştu (filtrelenmiş örnek: 41). 10 bar sonra win rate 39%, medyan getiri -5.1%. Reliability 42 / OOS 28. Karar motoru OOS'a daha çok ağırlık verir. EMA tek başına AL üretmez.
BEKLE, edge oluşana kadar geçerlidir. Predictability ≥ 80 tek başına AL üretmez.
Opportunity bileşenleri
- Predictability47 · w16
- Beklenen net getiri60 · w20
- Karar opportunity35 · w15
- Risk-ayarlı getiri28 · w13
- Regime confidence47 · w11
- Maliyet sonrası dayanıklılık— · w9
- Örnek yeterliliği60 · w8
- EMA crossover (OOS)— · w8
EMA Crossover
- EMA9
- 18.42
- EMA36
- 19.82
- Son crossover
- CROSS BELOW · 21 bar
- Reliability
- 42 / OOS 28
- Win rate
- 39%
- Medyan 10-bar
- -5.1%
- Örnek
- 41
- Profit factor
- 0.75
- Rejim
- HIGH_VOLATILITY · 100%
- MFE / MAE
- 5.8% / -5.8%
Neden? · PETKM
- EMA9, EMA36'yı aşağı kesti (bearish crossover). BIST'te short değil; çıkış/BEKLE adayı.
- Bu sinyal bu seride 41 kez oluştu (filtrelenmiş örnek: 41).
- 10 bar sonra win rate 39%, medyan getiri -5.1%.
- Reliability 42 / OOS 28. Karar motoru OOS'a daha çok ağırlık verir.
- EMA tek başına AL üretmez.
Whipsaw filtreleri (OOS)
- BASE · seçiliOOS 28 · n=41
- ADX20OOS 20 · n=16
- EMA200OOS 18 · n=21
- VOLUMEOOS 20 · n=20
- RSI50OOS 23 · n=40
- HTF_TRENDOOS 21 · n=15
- SLOPEOOS 22 · n=39
- SEPARATIONOOS 9 · n=11
- ATROOS 25 · n=25
En sağlam yakın çift EMA9/36 (robustness 62). En yüksek in-sample getiri EMA20/50 — bu yüzden seçilmedi.
PETKM 1d EMA9/36 genel win rate 39%; rejim kırılımı kartın üstünde. Yatay / düşük örnek rejimler BEKLE’ye iter.
Operator Actions
Price
Observed daily OHLCV bars. Yahoo is an unofficial free feed and may be delayed or incomplete.
Yahoo Features
- sample: 120 closes
- ret5: 3.89%
- ret20: 23.17%
- mean-revert gap: -19.28%
- ann. vol: 27.7%
Predictability
47
Volatility
100
Liquidity
100
ret5, ret20, mean-reversion gap and annualized realized volatility; profile scores are market-risk heuristics.
Intraday Pattern · Open = 100
Latest session
17.5 · +0.4%
Same time · previous
-0.06%
5D / 20D median
0.1% / -0.22%
RVOL-T
0.56×
Time Activity Score
16 / 100
LOW
- session: 2026-10-28
- same weekday: 0.56%
- deviation: 0.62 pp
- 5D mean: -0.06% · n=5
- 20D mean: -0.6% · n=20
- volume ratio: 0.56×
- volatility ratio: 0.83×
- complete history: 47
- same-weekday n: 7
- excluded incomplete: 2
Sync quality & outliers
- invalid bars: 0
- duplicate slots: 0
- price outliers: 0
- volume outliers: 0
- average quality: 77.4
- sync duration: 379 ms
Each session is normalized to open=100. Median is primary and dotted mean is auxiliary; incomplete/price-outlier sessions are excluded. RVOL-T compares cumulative volume with prior 20 complete sessions. Activity is not a direction forecast.
Market Risk
- total: 85
- volatility: 100
- drawdown: 100
- liquidity: 0
- sector: 100
- portfolio: 95
Realized volatility, peak-to-trough drawdown and volume-liquidity heuristics. Sector risk is a profile hint.
Latest Prediction
- model: Momentum
- p(up): 0.262
- E[r]: -0.052
- risk: 0.333
- conf: 0.775
- outcomes: Open
Model-name-specific feature weights; not trained XGBoost/LSTM/Transformer inference. Thin history may use deterministic fallback.
Latest Decision
quality 48.3 · risk 85 · fit 5
- consensus p(up): 0.33
- agreement: 66.3
- dispersion: 0.084
- calibrated conf: 0.702
- risk of wrong: 0.298
- data quality: 93.2
- 1d p10–p90: 0.015 → 0.035
- 5d p10–p90: -0.005 → 0.086
Bull: PETKM · (Petkim) · Materials · Petrochemicals: defensive bounce case only — 5d -8.1% / 20d -7.5%. Need reclaim of short-term structure before sizing. Lead model Ensemble (6 models) assigns p(up)=0.33; portfolio fit 5.0 with position not held.
Bear: PETKM: extreme vol (54.5%) and max drawdown 32.4% compress edge — false breakouts likely. Risk stack vol=100.0 · dd=100.0 · liq=0.0 · sector=100.0 → total 85.0.
Yahoo path features (n=90) · asOf=2026-10-28 · model=Ensemble (6 models) · p(up)=0.33 · regime=strong-down · vol=extreme · fit=5.0 · not held · sector=Materials · evidence=no verified research evidence
Invalidation: Invalidate if total market risk > 95.0, drawdown extends beyond 37.4%, or 5d return worsens by >3pp without 20d repair. Liquidity score > 25.0 also voids size-up.
Exit: Remain flat. Re-open only after total risk < 60 and regime leaves strong-down/mixed with rising p(up). Exit any residual on further DD extension.
StockModel-weighted same-as-of ensemble with calibration, agreement and data-quality gates. Empirical intervals are p10–p90 settled returns. Thesis and committee are templates, not live LLM agents.
Yahoo Market Activity Proxy
- flow: -3.52
- accum: 32.4
- distrib: 67.6
Market-activity proxy from volume × price × momentum. Not BIST member, BofA/MLB, custody or order-flow data.
Catalyst Timeline
- 2026-06-30 · FINANCIALunverified / excludedimportance 65
PETKM TTM financial results
Yahoo quote-summary TTM proxy; not an official KAP financial statement
Earnings quality and balance-sheet trajectory · Yahoo Finance Fundamentals Proxy
Only explicitly verified catalyst records are attached to new theses and committee reasoning; unverified imports remain visible but excluded.
Recent Predictions
- Momentump(up) 0.26 · Open
- News Modelp(up) 0.46 · Open
- LSTMp(up) 0.26 · Open
- Macro Modelp(up) 0.28 · Open
- Transformerp(up) 0.26 · Open
Scenario Sensitivities
- Risk-Off Shockp 0.95 · eff -20%
- Inflation Reaccelerationp 0.59 · eff -9.2%
- Soft Landingp 0.25 · eff -8.8%
Heuristic scenario sensitivity; not a macro world model or counterfactual simulation.