BIST · TRY
TUPRS — Tüpraş
Energy · Oil Refining · TR
Bu sayfa ne işe yarıyor?
Tek hisse için fiyat, risk, adaptive challenger ve nihai Decision Card.
Hangi soruya cevap veriyor?
Bu hissede şu anda rasyonel işlem nedir ve neden?
Kararda nasıl kullanılmalı?
Grafikler gerekçeyi açıklar. Nihai aksiyon Decision Card’daki AL/SAT/TUT/BEKLE’dir.
Hangi motora veri sağlar?
Predictability · Regime · Risk · Signal Engine
Decision Card
BIST:TUPRS · Tüpraş
- Güven
- 69
- Optimal ufuk
- 1g
- Predictability
- 57
- Opportunity
- 49
- Beklenen getiri
- +3.6%
- Beklenen downside
- +1.4%
- Rejim
- BEAR:HIGH_VOLATILITY
- Regime güven
- 50
- Risk
- YÜKSEK
- Hesap
- 2026-10-28 09:35
- Veri aralığı
- 2021-10-28 → 2026-10-28
- Tazelik
- 2g önce
- Decision engine
- decision-v1
- Strateji
- Ensemble (6 models)
- Model
- ensemble-heuristic-v1
- Özellik / veri
- adaptive-factor-v1 · yahoo:daily
- EMA OOS
- 54 · CROSS_BELOW · n=34
TUPRS — BEKLE Optimal horizon: 1 gün Predictability: %57 Opportunity Score: 49 Beklenen net hareket: +3.6% Regime: BEAR:HIGH_VOLATILITY · güven %50 Opportunity sürücüleri: Beklenen net getiri, Predictability, Karar opportunity. Sınıf: Güvenilmez. Ne operasyonel BUY ne production adaptive BUY mevcut. Opportunity 49 < 62; maliyet sonrası edge yetersiz. Yeterli istatistiksel avantaj yok; BEKLE bilinçli bir karardır. EMA9, EMA36'yı aşağı kesti (bearish crossover). BIST'te short değil; çıkış/BEKLE adayı. Bu sinyal bu seride 34 kez oluştu (filtrelenmiş örnek: 35). 10 bar sonra win rate 47%, medyan getiri -1.8%. Reliability 52 / OOS 54. Karar motoru OOS'a daha çok ağırlık verir. En güçlü rejim SIDEWAYS: win rate 57% (n=7). EMA tek başına AL üretmez.
BEKLE, edge oluşana kadar geçerlidir. Predictability ≥ 80 tek başına AL üretmez.
Opportunity bileşenleri
- Predictability57 · w16
- Beklenen net getiri64 · w20
- Karar opportunity43 · w15
- Risk-ayarlı getiri36 · w13
- Regime confidence50 · w11
- Maliyet sonrası dayanıklılık— · w9
- Örnek yeterliliği60 · w8
- EMA crossover (OOS)19 · w8
EMA Crossover
- EMA9
- 363.32
- EMA36
- 375.02
- Son crossover
- CROSS BELOW · 7 bar
- Reliability
- 52 / OOS 54
- Win rate
- 47%
- Medyan 10-bar
- -1.8%
- Örnek
- 34
- Profit factor
- 0.81
- Rejim
- SIDEWAYS · 57%
- MFE / MAE
- 6.1% / -5.0%
Neden? · TUPRS
- EMA9, EMA36'yı aşağı kesti (bearish crossover). BIST'te short değil; çıkış/BEKLE adayı.
- Bu sinyal bu seride 34 kez oluştu (filtrelenmiş örnek: 35).
- 10 bar sonra win rate 47%, medyan getiri -1.8%.
- Reliability 52 / OOS 54. Karar motoru OOS'a daha çok ağırlık verir.
- En güçlü rejim SIDEWAYS: win rate 57% (n=7).
- EMA tek başına AL üretmez.
Whipsaw filtreleri (OOS)
- BASE · seçiliOOS 55 · n=34
- ADX20OOS 35 · n=15
- EMA200OOS 35 · n=14
- VOLUMEOOS 55 · n=17
- RSI50OOS 55 · n=34
- HTF_TRENDOOS 35 · n=14
- SLOPEOOS 55 · n=33
- SEPARATIONOOS 35 · n=9
- ATROOS 55 · n=30
En sağlam yakın çift EMA5/20 (robustness 70). En yüksek in-sample getiri EMA20/50 — bu yüzden seçilmedi.
TUPRS 1d EMA9/36 genel win rate 47%; rejim kırılımı kartın üstünde. Yatay / düşük örnek rejimler BEKLE’ye iter.
Operator Actions
Price
Observed daily OHLCV bars. Yahoo is an unofficial free feed and may be delayed or incomplete.
Yahoo Features
- sample: 120 closes
- ret5: 8.72%
- ret20: 30.71%
- mean-revert gap: -21.99%
- ann. vol: 34.9%
Predictability
57
Volatility
100
Liquidity
100
ret5, ret20, mean-reversion gap and annualized realized volatility; profile scores are market-risk heuristics.
Intraday Pattern · Open = 100
Latest session
355 · -1.05%
Same time · previous
-0.41%
5D / 20D median
0.92% / 0.21%
RVOL-T
0.46×
Time Activity Score
29 / 100
LOW
- session: 2026-10-28
- same weekday: 1.29%
- deviation: -1.26 pp
- 5D mean: 0.72% · n=5
- 20D mean: 0.23% · n=20
- volume ratio: 0.46×
- volatility ratio: 0.94×
- complete history: 47
- same-weekday n: 7
- excluded incomplete: 2
Sync quality & outliers
- invalid bars: 0
- duplicate slots: 0
- price outliers: 0
- volume outliers: 0
- average quality: 77.4
- sync duration: 343 ms
Each session is normalized to open=100. Median is primary and dotted mean is auxiliary; incomplete/price-outlier sessions are excluded. RVOL-T compares cumulative volume with prior 20 complete sessions. Activity is not a direction forecast.
Market Risk
- total: 70.6
- volatility: 100
- drawdown: 51.9
- liquidity: 0
- sector: 100
- portfolio: 95
Realized volatility, peak-to-trough drawdown and volume-liquidity heuristics. Sector risk is a profile hint.
Latest Prediction
- model: Momentum
- p(up): 0.429
- E[r]: -0.017
- risk: 0.364
- conf: 0.685
- outcomes: Open
Model-name-specific feature weights; not trained XGBoost/LSTM/Transformer inference. Thin history may use deterministic fallback.
Latest Decision
quality 52.1 · risk 70.6 · fit 5
- consensus p(up): 0.401
- agreement: 73.7
- dispersion: 0.066
- calibrated conf: 0.688
- risk of wrong: 0.312
- data quality: 93.2
- 1d p10–p90: 0.014 → 0.058
- 5d p10–p90: -0.001 → 0.086
Bull: TUPRS · (Tüpraş) · Energy · Oil Refining: defensive bounce case only — 5d -1.2% / 20d -5.6%. Need reclaim of short-term structure before sizing. Lead model Ensemble (6 models) assigns p(up)=0.40; portfolio fit 5.0 with position not held.
Bear: TUPRS: elevated vol (42.0%) and max drawdown 15.6% compress edge — false breakouts likely. Risk stack vol=100.0 · dd=51.9 · liq=0.0 · sector=100.0 → total 70.6.
Yahoo path features (n=90) · asOf=2026-10-28 · model=Ensemble (6 models) · p(up)=0.40 · regime=mixed · vol=elevated · fit=5.0 · not held · sector=Energy · evidence=no verified research evidence
Invalidation: Invalidate if total market risk > 80.6, drawdown extends beyond 20.6%, or 5d return worsens by >3pp without 20d repair. Liquidity score > 25.0 also voids size-up.
Exit: Stay on watch until p(up)≥0.58 and opportunity clears risk gates without vol spike. Re-check after next Yahoo settle (1d/3d/5d).
StockModel-weighted same-as-of ensemble with calibration, agreement and data-quality gates. Empirical intervals are p10–p90 settled returns. Thesis and committee are templates, not live LLM agents.
Yahoo Market Activity Proxy
- flow: -1.53
- accum: 42.3
- distrib: 57.7
Market-activity proxy from volume × price × momentum. Not BIST member, BofA/MLB, custody or order-flow data.
Catalyst Timeline
- 2026-06-30 · FINANCIALunverified / excludedimportance 65
TUPRS TTM financial results
Yahoo quote-summary TTM proxy; not an official KAP financial statement
Earnings quality and balance-sheet trajectory · Yahoo Finance Fundamentals Proxy
Only explicitly verified catalyst records are attached to new theses and committee reasoning; unverified imports remain visible but excluded.
Recent Predictions
- Momentump(up) 0.43 · Open
- News Modelp(up) 0.49 · Open
- LSTMp(up) 0.34 · Open
- Macro Modelp(up) 0.3 · Open
- Transformerp(up) 0.34 · Open
Scenario Sensitivities
- Risk-Off Shockp 0.76 · eff -19.1%
- Inflation Reaccelerationp 0.52 · eff -7%
- Soft Landingp 0.31 · eff -5.7%
Heuristic scenario sensitivity; not a macro world model or counterfactual simulation.