BIST · TRY
EUPWR — Europower Enerji
Energy · Power Equipment · TR
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Tek hisse için fiyat, risk, adaptive challenger ve nihai Decision Card.
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Grafikler gerekçeyi açıklar. Nihai aksiyon Decision Card’daki AL/SAT/TUT/BEKLE’dir.
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Predictability · Regime · Risk · Signal Engine
Decision Card
BIST:EUPWR · Europower Enerji
- Güven
- 64
- Optimal ufuk
- 1g
- Predictability
- 47
- Opportunity
- 39
- Beklenen getiri
- -2.2%
- Beklenen downside
- -3.3%
- Rejim
- BEAR:HIGH_VOLATILITY
- Regime güven
- 47
- Risk
- YÜKSEK
- Hesap
- 2026-10-28 09:35
- Veri aralığı
- 2023-04-20 → 2026-10-28
- Tazelik
- 2g önce
- Decision engine
- decision-v1
- Strateji
- Ensemble (6 models)
- Model
- ensemble-heuristic-v1
- Özellik / veri
- adaptive-factor-v1 · yahoo:daily
- EMA OOS
- 35 · CROSS_BELOW · n=15
EUPWR — BEKLE Optimal horizon: 1 gün Predictability: %47 Opportunity Score: 39 Beklenen net hareket: -2.2% Regime: BEAR:HIGH_VOLATILITY · güven %47 Opportunity sürücüleri: Beklenen net getiri, Predictability, Regime confidence. Sınıf: Güvenilmez. Operasyonel motor NO_ACTION üretti; işlem açılmıyor. EMA9, EMA36'yı aşağı kesti (bearish crossover). BIST'te short değil; çıkış/BEKLE adayı. Bu sinyal bu seride 15 kez oluştu (filtrelenmiş örnek: 15). 10 bar sonra win rate 60%, medyan getiri 3.2%. Reliability 55 / OOS 35. Karar motoru OOS'a daha çok ağırlık verir. En güçlü rejim BEAR: win rate 71% (n=7). EMA tek başına AL üretmez.
BEKLE, edge oluşana kadar geçerlidir. Predictability ≥ 80 tek başına AL üretmez.
Opportunity bileşenleri
- Predictability47 · w16
- Beklenen net getiri41 · w20
- Karar opportunity30 · w15
- Risk-ayarlı getiri14 · w13
- Regime confidence47 · w11
- Maliyet sonrası dayanıklılık— · w9
- Örnek yeterliliği60 · w8
- EMA crossover (OOS)— · w8
EMA Crossover
- EMA9
- 41.33
- EMA36
- 53.79
- Son crossover
- CROSS BELOW · 39 bar
- Reliability
- 55 / OOS 35
- Win rate
- 60%
- Medyan 10-bar
- 3.2%
- Örnek
- 15
- Profit factor
- 2.55
- Rejim
- BEAR · 71%
- MFE / MAE
- 10.6% / -5.8%
Neden? · EUPWR
- EMA9, EMA36'yı aşağı kesti (bearish crossover). BIST'te short değil; çıkış/BEKLE adayı.
- Bu sinyal bu seride 15 kez oluştu (filtrelenmiş örnek: 15).
- 10 bar sonra win rate 60%, medyan getiri 3.2%.
- Reliability 55 / OOS 35. Karar motoru OOS'a daha çok ağırlık verir.
- En güçlü rejim BEAR: win rate 71% (n=7).
- EMA tek başına AL üretmez.
Whipsaw filtreleri (OOS)
- BASE · seçiliOOS 35 · n=15
- ADX20OOS 35 · n=6
- EMA200OOS 35 · n=7
- VOLUMEOOS 35 · n=9
- RSI50OOS 35 · n=15
- HTF_TRENDOOS 35 · n=6
- SLOPEOOS 35 · n=15
- SEPARATIONOOS 35 · n=5
- ATROOS 35 · n=4
En sağlam yakın çift EMA5/20 (robustness 68). En yüksek in-sample getiri EMA50/200 — bu yüzden seçilmedi.
EUPWR 1d EMA9/36 genel win rate 60%; rejim kırılımı kartın üstünde. Yatay / düşük örnek rejimler BEKLE’ye iter.
Operator Actions
Price
Observed daily OHLCV bars. Yahoo is an unofficial free feed and may be delayed or incomplete.
Yahoo Features
- sample: 120 closes
- ret5: -3.9%
- ret20: -4.55%
- mean-revert gap: 0.65%
- ann. vol: 80.5%
Predictability
47
Volatility
100
Liquidity
100
ret5, ret20, mean-reversion gap and annualized realized volatility; profile scores are market-risk heuristics.
Intraday Pattern · Open = 100
Latest session
41 · +3.22%
Same time · previous
+1.56%
5D / 20D median
1.72% / 0.75%
RVOL-T
0.96×
Time Activity Score
71 / 100
HIGH
- session: 2026-10-28
- same weekday: -1.55%
- deviation: 2.47 pp
- 5D mean: 1.86% · n=5
- 20D mean: 0.67% · n=20
- volume ratio: 0.96×
- volatility ratio: 2.09×
- complete history: 47
- same-weekday n: 7
- excluded incomplete: 2
Sync quality & outliers
- invalid bars: 0
- duplicate slots: 0
- price outliers: 0
- volume outliers: 0
- average quality: 77.4
- sync duration: 294 ms
Each session is normalized to open=100. Median is primary and dotted mean is auxiliary; incomplete/price-outlier sessions are excluded. RVOL-T compares cumulative volume with prior 20 complete sessions. Activity is not a direction forecast.
Market Risk
- total: 85
- volatility: 100
- drawdown: 100
- liquidity: 0
- sector: 100
- portfolio: 95
Realized volatility, peak-to-trough drawdown and volume-liquidity heuristics. Sector risk is a profile hint.
Latest Prediction
- model: Momentum
- p(up): 0.488
- E[r]: -0.014
- risk: 0.55
- conf: 0.656
- outcomes: Open
Model-name-specific feature weights; not trained XGBoost/LSTM/Transformer inference. Thin history may use deterministic fallback.
Latest Decision
quality 42.2 · risk 85 · fit 5
- consensus p(up): 0.334
- agreement: 43.4
- dispersion: 0.142
- calibrated conf: 0.641
- risk of wrong: 0.359
- data quality: 92.8
- 1d p10–p90: -0.033 → -0.011
- 5d p10–p90: -0.039 → 0.016
Why not?
- Model dispersion is above the agreement gate
Bull: EUPWR · (Europower Enerji) · Energy · Power Equipment: bounce inside a soft 20d (-18.2%); treat strength as tactical unless 20d flips positive. Lead model Ensemble (6 models) assigns p(up)=0.33; portfolio fit 5.0 with position not held.
Bear: EUPWR: extreme vol (80.1%) and max drawdown 65.7% compress edge — false breakouts likely. Risk stack vol=100.0 · dd=100.0 · liq=0.0 · sector=100.0 → total 85.0.
Yahoo path features (n=90) · asOf=2026-10-28 · model=Ensemble (6 models) · p(up)=0.33 · regime=bounce-in-downtrend · vol=extreme · fit=5.0 · not held · sector=Energy · evidence=no verified research evidence
Invalidation: Invalidate if total market risk > 95.0, drawdown extends beyond 70.7%, or 5d return worsens by >3pp without 20d repair. Liquidity score > 25.0 also voids size-up.
Exit: Wait for clearer 5d/20d alignment. No new risk until confidence and fit both improve.
StockModel-weighted same-as-of ensemble with calibration, agreement and data-quality gates. Empirical intervals are p10–p90 settled returns. Thesis and committee are templates, not live LLM agents.
Yahoo Market Activity Proxy
- flow: -2.08
- accum: 39.6
- distrib: 60.4
Market-activity proxy from volume × price × momentum. Not BIST member, BofA/MLB, custody or order-flow data.
Catalyst Timeline
- 2026-03-31 · FINANCIALunverified / excludedimportance 65
EUPWR TTM financial results
Yahoo quote-summary TTM proxy; not an official KAP financial statement
Earnings quality and balance-sheet trajectory · Yahoo Finance Fundamentals Proxy
Only explicitly verified catalyst records are attached to new theses and committee reasoning; unverified imports remain visible but excluded.
Recent Predictions
- Momentump(up) 0.49 · Open
- News Modelp(up) 0.5 · Open
- LSTMp(up) 0.18 · Open
- Macro Modelp(up) 0.18 · Open
- Transformerp(up) 0.18 · Open
Scenario Sensitivities
- Risk-Off Shockp 0.95 · eff -20%
- Inflation Reaccelerationp 0.82 · eff -15%
- Soft Landingp 0.25 · eff -12%
Heuristic scenario sensitivity; not a macro world model or counterfactual simulation.