BIST · TRY
TUKAS — Tukaş
Consumer Staples · Food · TR
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Tek hisse için fiyat, risk, adaptive challenger ve nihai Decision Card.
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Predictability · Regime · Risk · Signal Engine
Decision Card
BIST:TUKAS · Tukaş
- Güven
- 70
- Optimal ufuk
- 1g
- Predictability
- 53
- Opportunity
- 46
- Beklenen getiri
- +0.3%
- Beklenen downside
- -1.0%
- Rejim
- BEAR:HIGH_VOLATILITY
- Regime güven
- 49
- Risk
- YÜKSEK
- Hesap
- 2026-10-28 09:35
- Veri aralığı
- 2021-10-28 → 2026-10-28
- Tazelik
- 2g önce
- Decision engine
- decision-v1
- Strateji
- Ensemble (6 models)
- Model
- ensemble-heuristic-v1
- Özellik / veri
- adaptive-factor-v1 · yahoo:daily
- EMA OOS
- 50 · CROSS_BELOW · n=31
TUKAS — BEKLE Optimal horizon: 1 gün Predictability: %53 Opportunity Score: 46 Beklenen net hareket: +0.3% Regime: BEAR:HIGH_VOLATILITY · güven %49 Opportunity sürücüleri: Beklenen net getiri, Predictability, Karar opportunity. Sınıf: Güvenilmez. Predictability 53 < 55; istatistiksel avantaj yok. EMA9, EMA36'yı aşağı kesti (bearish crossover). BIST'te short değil; çıkış/BEKLE adayı. Bu sinyal bu seride 31 kez oluştu (filtrelenmiş örnek: 31). 10 bar sonra win rate 52%, medyan getiri 0.4%. Reliability 58 / OOS 50. Karar motoru OOS'a daha çok ağırlık verir. EMA tek başına AL üretmez.
BEKLE, edge oluşana kadar geçerlidir. Predictability ≥ 80 tek başına AL üretmez.
Opportunity bileşenleri
- Predictability53 · w16
- Beklenen net getiri51 · w20
- Karar opportunity41 · w15
- Risk-ayarlı getiri24 · w13
- Regime confidence49 · w11
- Maliyet sonrası dayanıklılık— · w9
- Örnek yeterliliği60 · w8
- EMA crossover (OOS)— · w8
EMA Crossover
- EMA9
- 1.90
- EMA36
- 1.98
- Son crossover
- CROSS BELOW · 18 bar
- Reliability
- 58 / OOS 50
- Win rate
- 52%
- Medyan 10-bar
- 0.4%
- Örnek
- 31
- Profit factor
- 1.31
- Rejim
- HIGH_VOLATILITY · 100%
- MFE / MAE
- 8.1% / -6.5%
Neden? · TUKAS
- EMA9, EMA36'yı aşağı kesti (bearish crossover). BIST'te short değil; çıkış/BEKLE adayı.
- Bu sinyal bu seride 31 kez oluştu (filtrelenmiş örnek: 31).
- 10 bar sonra win rate 52%, medyan getiri 0.4%.
- Reliability 58 / OOS 50. Karar motoru OOS'a daha çok ağırlık verir.
- EMA tek başına AL üretmez.
Whipsaw filtreleri (OOS)
- BASE · seçiliOOS 49 · n=31
- ADX20OOS 55 · n=22
- EMA200OOS 35 · n=11
- VOLUMEOOS 34 · n=13
- RSI50OOS 49 · n=31
- HTF_TRENDOOS 35 · n=10
- SLOPEOOS 49 · n=31
- SEPARATIONOOS 35 · n=9
- ATROOS 35 · n=15
En sağlam yakın çift EMA8/21 (robustness 67). En yüksek in-sample getiri EMA50/200 — bu yüzden seçilmedi.
TUKAS 1d EMA9/36 genel win rate 52%; rejim kırılımı kartın üstünde. Yatay / düşük örnek rejimler BEKLE’ye iter.
Operator Actions
Price
Observed daily OHLCV bars. Yahoo is an unofficial free feed and may be delayed or incomplete.
Yahoo Features
- sample: 120 closes
- ret5: 5.88%
- ret20: 12.63%
- mean-revert gap: -6.76%
- ann. vol: 32.1%
Predictability
53
Volatility
100
Liquidity
100
ret5, ret20, mean-reversion gap and annualized realized volatility; profile scores are market-risk heuristics.
Intraday Pattern · Open = 100
Latest session
1.87 · +1.08%
Same time · previous
-1.09%
5D / 20D median
0% / 0%
RVOL-T
0.87×
Time Activity Score
70 / 100
NORMAL
- session: 2026-10-28
- same weekday: -0.85%
- deviation: 1.08 pp
- 5D mean: -0.23% · n=5
- 20D mean: -0.18% · n=20
- volume ratio: 0.87×
- volatility ratio: 1.25×
- complete history: 47
- same-weekday n: 7
- excluded incomplete: 2
Sync quality & outliers
- invalid bars: 0
- duplicate slots: 0
- price outliers: 0
- volume outliers: 0
- average quality: 77.4
- sync duration: 314 ms
Each session is normalized to open=100. Median is primary and dotted mean is auxiliary; incomplete/price-outlier sessions are excluded. RVOL-T compares cumulative volume with prior 20 complete sessions. Activity is not a direction forecast.
Market Risk
- total: 76.1
- volatility: 98.3
- drawdown: 72.7
- liquidity: 0
- sector: 100
- portfolio: 95
Realized volatility, peak-to-trough drawdown and volume-liquidity heuristics. Sector risk is a profile hint.
Latest Prediction
- model: Momentum
- p(up): 0.373
- E[r]: -0.026
- risk: 0.42
- conf: 0.712
- outcomes: Open
Model-name-specific feature weights; not trained XGBoost/LSTM/Transformer inference. Thin history may use deterministic fallback.
Latest Decision
quality 51.7 · risk 76.1 · fit 5
- consensus p(up): 0.389
- agreement: 74.2
- dispersion: 0.065
- calibrated conf: 0.696
- risk of wrong: 0.305
- data quality: 93.2
- 1d p10–p90: -0.01 → 0.015
- 5d p10–p90: 0.015 → 0.02
Bull: TUKAS · (Tukaş) · Consumer Staples · Food: defensive bounce case only — 5d -4.1% / 20d -3.6%. Need reclaim of short-term structure before sizing. Lead model Ensemble (6 models) assigns p(up)=0.39; portfolio fit 5.0 with position not held.
Bear: TUKAS: elevated vol (39.3%) and max drawdown 21.8% compress edge — false breakouts likely. Risk stack vol=98.3 · dd=72.7 · liq=0.0 · sector=100.0 → total 76.1.
Yahoo path features (n=90) · asOf=2026-10-28 · model=Ensemble (6 models) · p(up)=0.39 · regime=strong-down · vol=elevated · fit=5.0 · not held · sector=Consumer Staples · evidence=no verified research evidence
Invalidation: Invalidate if total market risk > 86.1, drawdown extends beyond 26.8%, or 5d return worsens by >3pp without 20d repair. Liquidity score > 25.0 also voids size-up.
Exit: Stay on watch until p(up)≥0.58 and opportunity clears risk gates without vol spike. Re-check after next Yahoo settle (1d/3d/5d).
StockModel-weighted same-as-of ensemble with calibration, agreement and data-quality gates. Empirical intervals are p10–p90 settled returns. Thesis and committee are templates, not live LLM agents.
Yahoo Market Activity Proxy
- flow: -2.13
- accum: 39.4
- distrib: 60.6
Market-activity proxy from volume × price × momentum. Not BIST member, BofA/MLB, custody or order-flow data.
Catalyst Timeline
- 2026-06-30 · FINANCIALunverified / excludedimportance 65
TUKAS TTM financial results
Yahoo quote-summary TTM proxy; not an official KAP financial statement
Earnings quality and balance-sheet trajectory · Yahoo Finance Fundamentals Proxy
Only explicitly verified catalyst records are attached to new theses and committee reasoning; unverified imports remain visible but excluded.
Recent Predictions
- Momentump(up) 0.37 · Open
- News Modelp(up) 0.48 · Open
- LSTMp(up) 0.33 · Open
- Macro Modelp(up) 0.32 · Open
- Transformerp(up) 0.33 · Open
Scenario Sensitivities
- Risk-Off Shockp 0.76 · eff -20%
- Inflation Reaccelerationp 0.48 · eff -6%
- Soft Landingp 0.32 · eff -5%
Heuristic scenario sensitivity; not a macro world model or counterfactual simulation.